1. european capacity building initiativeecbi Title: Towards an African roadmap to Durban Sub-title: The African Position for the 17 th COP of the UNFCCC in Durban, South Africa Author: Tosi MPANU-MPANU european capacity building initiative initiative européenne de renforcement des capacités ecbi for sustained capacity building in support of international climate change negotiations pour un renforcement durable des capacités en appui aux négociations internationales sur les changements climatiques

2. european capacity building initiativeecbi Introduction The UN Climate Change Conference in Durban represents a critical moment in the international climate change negotiations It represents a defining opportunity for African leaders and negotiators to chart the course towards outcomes that: –Curb the rising threat of climate change to the African continent –Implement the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol –Advance the longer-term interests and aspirations of all African countries and people A strong common African position based on science and on the rule of law will lay the foundation for a coherent roadmap and strategy for the “African Climate Conference” in Durban

3. european capacity building initiativeecbi Overview A comprehensive strategy for Durban should consider: 1.Current scientific and economic context of the climate negotiations 2.Current political context of the climate negotiations 3.The status quo of the negotiations immediately following the June Bonn session 4.Expectations for the Durban Climate Conference 5.The process of meetings and negotiations towards Durban

4. european capacity building initiativeecbi Scientific and economic context Recent scientific information since the IPCC 4th Assessment Report confirms the world is on course for levels of warming that will be catastrophic for Africa – addressing this must be a central concern for Durban UNEP confirms that current mitigation pledges – unless strengthened – set the world on course for global warming of between 2.5 to 5°C Africa, due to its geographic and physical characteristics, will warm around one-and-a-half times the global level, according to the IPCC Recent studies, based on historical information, project that warming as low as 1°C could reduce agricultural production by 20% in certain crops and areas, and project other adverse impacts for Africa’s development Preparation for the Durban Climate Conference must mark a major change in direction - including new levels of awareness in both developed and developing countries - if the UN climate talks are to secure Africa’s safety

5. european capacity building initiativeecbi Scientific and economic context (2) Developed countries are offering very low levels of emission reductions for 2020 (3 to 3.8Gt) in comparison to developing countries (3.6 to 5.2Gt) The comparison is even less favorable due to: –Developed countries intend to undertake reductions in developing countries via carbon markets and offsetting (over 1.1Gt) –Developed countries can also make use of “loopholes” from land-use, surplus allowances etc (currently around 3.9Gt) Unless developed countries increase ambition they could undertake no domestic reductions by 2020 yet remain in formal compliance (see graph) Inadequate mitigation efforts risks excessive use of the atmospheric space required by Africa for its development, and dangerous warming A major effort is required to close the “mitigation gap” to avoid major adverse impacts to Africa

6. european capacity building initiativeecbi Mitigation pledges by developed and developing countries in the context of a 2 degree C goal

7. european capacity building initiativeecbi Scientific and economic context (3) Africa is already suffering major financial losses due to climate change At the same time, there is increasing concern regarding implementation of finance commitments by developed countries $30 billion in “fast-start” finance pledged in Copenhagen for 2010- 2012 is slow to be disbursed and is largely neither “new” nor “additional” Preliminary assessment suggests that as little as 1.1 to 5.3 billion is “new and additional” (i.e. not pledged pre-Copenhagen or as ODA) There remains no agreement on financing to be provided commencing in 2013, or on public finance to be provided by 2020 A major effort is required to close the “finance gap” to ensure Africa can undertake appropriate actions to reduce emissions and adapt to climate change

8. european capacity building initiativeecbi Political context Substantial challenges are arising in the climate negotiations Last year, Cancun addressed certain “easier” issues (e.g. new institutions) leaving certain “harder issues” (e.g. mitigation commitments for developed countries) to be addressed in Durban This year, developing countries – particularly Africa – fought to retain these issues on the agenda in line with the agreed mandates and two negotiating tracks of the “Bali Roadmap” In contrast, some developed countries are departing from the Bali Roadmap by: Stating they do not intend to honor their Kyoto commitments, or Stating they will fulfill their commitments, subject to certain “conditionalities” There is pressure to replace the current rules- and science-based negotiations under the Kyoto Protocol with a weaker “pledge-based” system under the Convention Developing countries are at risk of making concessions under the Convention, in return for weaker disciplines than already apply to developed countries under the Protocol A sustained effort is required to maintain a science- and rules-based international climate regime, building on the Convention and its Kyoto Protocol

9. european capacity building initiativeecbi Status quo of the negotiations April 2011 climate talks in Bangkok centered on: The agenda of the negotiations under the Convention (in the AWG-LCA) The need to address political concerns arising around the future of the Kyoto Protocol (in the AWG-KP) Unity of Africa and G77 ensured all key issues remain on the table for Durban At the June 2011 climate talks in Bonn: The AWG-KP made some progress on technical issues, and less progress on political issues regarding the future of the Kyoto Protocol The AWG-LCA commenced negotiations on substantive issues for Durban, with texts developed by facilitator The Subsidiary Bodies debated agendas and made some progress on substantive issues The meetings of the AWG-LCA and AWG-KP will be continued in sessions convened during October in Panama During this process, the African Group has revised the African Platform based on previous versions, outcomes from AMCEN and AU and recent scientific and technical information

10. european capacity building initiativeecbi Expectations for Durban In accordance with the Bali Roadmap, Africa’s expectations for Durban include: –A second commitment period for Annex I countries under the Kyoto Protocol –An agreed outcome under the Bali Action Plan to ensure full implementation of the Convention Balance is required: –Under both tracks of the negotiations (Convention and Kyoto Protocol) –On all the “building blocks” of the Bali Action Plan – shared vision, adaptation, mitigation, finance, technology transfer and capacity building Africa has consistently emphasized the importance of outcomes based on science, principles, equity and the rule of law

11. european capacity building initiativeecbi Expectations for Durban (2) To secure Africa’s long-term interests requires a science-based outcome to the climate negotiations that reflects: 1.A temperature goal sufficient to avoid dangerous warming and keep Africa safe 2.A level of global emission reductions sufficient to achieve this temperature goal (i.e. a limited global carbon budget) 3.A fair and science-based contribution by Annex I emission to these emission reductions (i.e. leaving an adequate carbon budget or atmospheric space for developing countries, including Africa) 4.Adequate means of implementation (including finance, technology and capacity) for non-Annex I countries to: a)Address adaptation costs and efforts associated with (1) b)Address mitigation costs and efforts associated with (2) and (3)

12. european capacity building initiativeecbi Expectations for Durban (3) In line with a science-based position: 1.Global warming must be kept “well below 1.5 degrees C” 2.Global emissions should peak well before 2020 and reduce more than 85% by 2050, subject first to agreement on mitigation and financing from developed countries 3.Developed countries should reduce emissions below 1990 levels by at least 40% by 2017 and at least 45% by 2020 4.Developed countries should make available long-term financing equivalent to at least 1.5% of their GDP These demands together present an integrated and science-based position reflecting Africa’s common interests Advancing these will require a coherent strategy both for Durban (including agreed bottom lines) and beyond Durban (including for the 2013-2015 review), underpinned by a more systematic agenda of political outreach, communications and research

13. european capacity building initiativeecbi Process towards and during Durban Africa welcomes the important role and leadership provided by South Africa, and commits to work closely to make Durban a resounding success The process for Durban should yield a balanced outcome on all issues including mitigation and finance (not merely a subset of issues) Expectations for Durban must be raised (not lowered) to deliver the outcomes needed by Africa The process for Durban must provide a model of openness, transparency and participation Through effective engagement by officials, Ministers and Heads of State with all negotiating partners before and during Durban, its outcomes can address the needs and aspirations of all Africans