The U.S. in 2008: The Election and the Economy I. Demographic data II. U.S. political process III election IV. State of U.S. economy

Population Density by State

Growth in Minority Population SOURCE: Census Bureau | GRAPHIC: The Washington Post - May 10, 2006

Distribution of African Americans

Distribution of Asian Americans

The U.S. Electoral Cycle Every TWO years congressional elections all members of the House of Representatives (2 year terms) 1/3 of the members of the Senate (6 year terms) November of even numbered years, take office January of odd numbered years Every FOUR years congressional and presidential elections November of years divisible by 4, take office January of odd numbered years presidents can only serve 2 terms 2004Bush (R) defeated Kerry (D) Republicans keep control of both Houses of Congress 2006Democrats win majority in both House of Representatives and Senate 2008John McCain (R) vs. Obama or Clinton (D) + all members of House of Representative + 33 members of Senate 2010all members of House of Representative + 33 members of Senate

SenateHouse Democrats REPUBLICANS SenateHouse DEMOCRATS Republicans Control of Congress before 2006 Election Control of Congress after 2006 Election

The Presidential Selection Process State primaries or caucuses held between January and June, each state can choose its own time each party has its own separate primary or caucus 2 purposes to select delegates to go to the national convention to nominate the president to select party candidates for congressional, state, and local elections primary is a vote much like a regular election vote caucus is a set of public meetings where people declare their preferences 20% of Democratic delegates are “superdelegates” chosen by state parties 2. National convention In July the Democratic delegates meet at their national convention Republicans meet in August John McCain has already won a majority of Republican delegates Barack Obama has a small lead over Hillary Clinton, but does not have a majority 3. General Election + Electoral College In the first week of November the national vote is held the vote that counts is the vote of states in the electoral college states vote as a bloc (win Florida by one vote and you win all 54 Florida votes) so in rare cases the winner of the popular vote does not win the electoral college in 2000 Al Gore won more votes, but George Bush won the electoral college and became president

Electoral College Results 2004 Size of State Adjusted for Size of Population

Three party eras The U.S. party system usually shows historical continuities I. Democratic Dominance Democratic presidents for 28 of 36 years Democrats controlled Congress for 32 of 36 years II. Divided Government: Split Level Republican Presidents for 20 of 26 years But Democrats controlled the House of Representatives all 26 years Democrats controlled the Senate 20 of 26 years III. The New Republican Majority in Congress Democrat Clinton faced Republican majorities in Congress his last 6 years Republican Bush had Republican majorities in the House for 6 years and the Senate for four years Democrats won control of both houses of Congress in 2006

Themes from Candidate or Party Websites

Voters’ Identification of Most Important Issues to Them Thinking ahead to the November presidential election, what is the single most important issue in your choice for president? 2/1/08 1/12/08 12/9/07 11/1/07 9/7/07 Economy/Jobs Iraq/War in Iraq Health care Terrorism/Natl security Ethics/Corruption in govt Immigration

Public Opinion on which party can do a better job on issues Which political party, the (Democrats) or the (Republicans), do you trust to do a better job handling ______? Democrats Republicans The economy 52 (44) 33 (45) war in Iraq 48 (30) 34 (56) Health care 56 (47) 29 (37) War on terrorism 44 (25) 37 (61) Immigration 40 (NA) 37 (NA) budget deficit 52 (38) 31 (46) Taxes 48 (46) 40 (44) Numbers in parenthesis = scores in 2002 Numbers do not add up to 100% because of answers like both parties, neither party, or no opinion. Numbers in xxx are numbers taken during the first Bush administration.

U.S Economic Problems adapted from

U.S. Debt Crisis 1. The average U.S. household owes more debt than it owns in assets 2. In 1945, half of all the debt in the world was owed to the U.S. government, U.S. corporations, and individuals 3. Today, half of all the debt in the world is owed by the U.S. government, U.S. corporations, and individuals

Number of Homes in foreclosure process Third Quarter ,233 First Quarter ,731 Third Quarter ,726 1% of all American homes were in foreclosure process in 2007 up from.6% in 2006 In the U.S. the home ownership rate is approximately 2 out of 3 households Percentage of Americans without Health Insurance

More U.S. Economic Indicators

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Yen exchange rate against the Dollar