Economic Outlook: Beyond the Recession ESICA Spring Conference The Tides Inn – Irvington, VA May 6, 2010 Ann Battle Macheras Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

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Presentation transcript:

Economic Outlook: Beyond the Recession ESICA Spring Conference The Tides Inn – Irvington, VA May 6, 2010 Ann Battle Macheras Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Overview National Economic Trends GDP Employment Business Activity Construction Indicators Construction Put in Place Commercial Vacancy Rates Property Prices Financial Markets Lending for Commercial Real Estate What to Expect?

National Economic Trends

US Gross Domestic Product Percent Change, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Source: BEA/Haver Analytics

Real Gross Domestic Product Source: BEA/Haver Analytics

Real Gross Domestic Product Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics

Non-Residential Fixed Investment Source: BEA/Haver Analytics

Real Non-Residential Fixed Investment Equipment and Software Source: BEA/Haver Analytics

Non-Residential Fixed Investment in Structures Source: BEA/Haver Analytics

Real Non-Residential Fixed Investment in Structures Source: BEA/Haver Analytics

Nonfarm Payroll Employment Average Monthly Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics

Industry Growth in the United States Percent Change in Employment from a Year Ago

Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics

Retail Sales Source: BEA/Haver Analytics % Change: Jan: 4.1% Feb: 3.9% Mar: 7.6%

Personal Income and Expenditures Source: BEA/Haver Analytics

ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Surveys Source: Institute of Supply Managers

Richmond Manufacturing Composite Index: MD, DC, VA, WV, NC, SC Source: Federal Reserve Board/Haver Analytics

Manufacturing Activity – Regional Surveys PhiladelphiaNew York Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Industrial Production Index: 2002=100 Source: Federal Reserve Board/Haver Analytics

Capacity Utilization Index: 2002=100 Source: Federal Reserve Board/Haver Analytics

Core Capital Goods Source: US Census Bureau/Haver Analytics

Construction Indicators

U.S. Construction Put in Place Total and Private Construction Source: US Census Bureau/Haver Analytics

U.S. Construction Put in Place Office and Commercial Construction Source: US Census Bureau/Haver Analytics

U.S. Construction Put in Place Power and Manufacturing Construction Source: US Census Bureau/Haver Analytics

Regional Construction Put in Place Total Private Construction Source: US Census Bureau/Haver Analytics

Regional Construction Put in Place Office Construction Source: US Census Bureau/Haver Analytics

Regional Construction Put in Place Commercial Construction Source: US Census Bureau/Haver Analytics

Regional Construction Put in Place Manufacturing Construction Source: US Census Bureau/Haver Analytics

U.S. Commercial Real Estate Source: CB Richard Ellis/Haver Analytics

Regional Commercial Real Estate Office Vacancy Rates Source: CB Richard Ellis/Haver Analytics

Regional Commercial Real Estate Industrial Availability Rates Source: CB Richard Ellis/Haver Analytics

Employment’s Relationship to Residential and Commercial Property Prices Source: Moody’s/REAL, BLS, Haver Analytics Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Index: Dec. 2000=100

Financial Markets

Fed Funds Rate

Lending for Commercial Real Estate Net Percentage Tightening Standards

Lending for Commercial Real Estate Net Percentage Reporting Stronger Demand

Possible Future Scenarios?

Gross Domestic Product – What to Expect? Note: For the most recent recession, t= 2Q:2009 Source: BEA/Haver Analytics

Nonfarm Payroll Employment – What to Expect? Note: For the most recent recession, t= June 2009 Source: BLS/Haver Analytics

Private Nonresidential Construction – What to Expect? Note: For the most recent recession, t= June 2009 Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics

Looking Ahead for 2010: Positive developments: Job losses tapering off and gains setting in Consumer spending strengthening Business investment and increased activity Global markets reinforcing the recovery Risks to the recovery Stubborn unemployment Housing slow to rebound Commercial real estate – continued drag State and local revenue shortfalls – another drag

Links for Data: Construction Put In Place: (the links on the lefthand side take you to additional pages with more detail for each category) Senior Loan Officer Survey – Measures of Supply and Demand for Commercial Real Estate Loans: National Indicators, such as GDP, Personal Consumption, etc. – Charts available in pdf files, with sources listed below mic_indicators/index.cfm Ann’s

The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author. They do not represent an official position of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond or the Federal Reserve System. Questions? … and thank you!