Klamath Coho Integrated Modeling Framework (IMF)

IMF Project Objectives Construct a model that will predict the relative influence of Reclamation Project operation scenarios on Klamath Basin coho production and productivity. The results of this analysis will be used to inform Reclamation’s consultation with NOAA Fisheries. Picture from ODFW

ESA Consultation Analyses Lindley et al. (2006) 1.Use a quantitative framework akin to life- cycle modeling 2.Express quantitative findings in terms of VSP criteria 3.Evaluate a range of circumstances that represent uncertainty 4.Identify and use explicit measures of uncertainty

The Cal-Fed reviewers suggest a “life-cycle” approach. …a biological conceptual framework is necessary to provide a context for integrating diverse types of scientific information into overall assessments of viability and risk at the population and ESU level. 1. Use a quantitative framework akin to life-cycle modeling Life-stage-level effects Population-level effects Predicting how alterations to fish habitat affects populations

…consideration of basic VSP principals will help form an explicit conceptual framework for a BiOp. …even in data-poor situations VSP provides a useful organizing framework for considering risks to salmon populations and ESUs, and clear references to this framework in future Biological Opinions will enhance their transparency as well as their scientific credibility. … actions proposed in a BiOp should be evaluated with respect to their effects on the four VSP viability criteria 2. Express quantitative findings in terms of VSP criteria Abundance Productivity Spatial Structure Diversity

The Cal-Fed reviewers suggest developing a series of scenarios that represent a range of possible future climates and water demand situations. The BiOp should have evaluated whether the populations will be able to bear the increased mortality under the full range of ocean conditions, which will include periods of poor survival as well as good periods. The Cal-Fed reviewers urge that the effects of hatchery fish be analyzed concurrently with the other project impacts 3. Evaluate a range of circumstances that represent uncertainty Climate Change Ocean Conditions Hatchery Fish

Addressing reviewer’s concerns about biological uncertainty will require an iterative process of 1) collecting interdisciplinary scientific observations, 2) building and re-building models of the populations within their environments, and 3) running the models in data assimilation mode to advise the content and design of data collection programs, hence back to step 1… The process of data assimilation not only tests the logic and parameters of the model against reality, but it can also be used to identify which variables are most critical, and the minimum frequency or density of observations necessary to estimate a given parameter. 4. Identify and use explicit measures of uncertainty Statistical uncertainty Biological uncertainty

11/6/06 12/14/06 1/5/07 1/24/07 3/27/07 5/2/07 5/14/07 6/08/07 TBA 7/31/07 Project Begins 12/12/05 Tech Memo 1 Tech Memo 2 TRB 1 Final report and model user guide Tech Memos 3-4 1/18/07 Workshop: Tech Memos 3-4 TRBs 2-3 TRB 4 Tech Memos 5-8 Workshop: Tech Memos 5-8 Workshop: Review first draft of model Release draft final report for comment Coho IMF Project Timeline

Technical Response Briefs Tech Memo 1: Abundance Estimation Tech Memo 2: Fall redistribution and over-winter survival Tech Memo 3: Ocean survival Tech Memo 4: Juvenile emigration survival

Tech Memo 2 Revisions Developing an alternative approach to simulate movement and production of juveniles. Reevaluate limitations of habitat on capacity. Incorporate the bioenergetics growth function described by Sullivan et al. (2000) directly into the life-cycle model. Photo From:

Tech Memo 4 Revisions Increased Baseline Smolt Survival from 0.87/100km to 0.95/100km. Attempt to distinguish patterns of migration timing for different water year types. Request data for the proportion of flow sampled to couple with the catch data, so we that we can adjust the estimates of fish passage accordingly. Explore both linear and hockey-stick flow scalars within the model.

Today’s Agenda 1.Temperature & Flow Dynamics 2.Juvenile Rearing Capacity 3.Disease Effects 4.Adult Entry to Summer Rearing