1. 1 Some Context for NMFS Ecosystem Modeling Ned Cyr NMFS Office of Science and Technology

2. 2 Outline NOAA Goals and Ecosystem Drivers Two significant, nascent NOAA activities for which ecosystem modeling will be an important component. –Integrated Ecosystem Assessments (IEAs) –Comparative Analysis of Marine Ecosystem Organization (CAMEO)

3. 3 NOAA Goals Serve society’s needs for weather and water information Support the nation’s commerce with information for safe, efficient, and environmentally sound transportation Understand climate variability and change to enhance society’s ability to plan and respond Protect, restore, and manage the use of coastal and ocean resources through an ecosystem approach to management

4. 4 NOAA Ecosystem Drivers NOAA Strategic Plan (2002) “Improve resource management by advancing our understanding of ecosystems through better simulation and predictive models.” NOAA Five-year Research Plan (2007) “NOAA forecasts will provide the needed decision- support tools for adaptive, ecosystem-based management of fisheries and marine resources, to predict human impacts on ecosystems, and to protect human health.” “Create biophysical coupled models of water mass movements and their effects on biological productivity including fisheries recruitment and population distribution.”

5. 5 Ecosystem Drivers (continued) Magnuson Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Reauthorization Act (2006) “The Secretary shall undertake and complete a study on the state of the science for advancing the concepts and integration of ecosystem considerations in regional fishery management.” “The Secretary is authorized to provide necessary technical advice and assistance… to the Councils for the development and design of regional pilot programs that build upon the recommendations of the advisory panel and, when completed, the study.” Ocean Research Priorities Plan (2006) “New modeling and analysis procedures will be developed to provide the foundation for comparative analyses and evaluation of ecosystems.”

6. 6 Provides a “big picture” of an ecosystem. Broad perspective and scale. Long-term perspective. Human impacts considered in models. Adaptive and integrated management. Shared and standardized observations. Integrated Ecosystem Assessment (IEA)Single Sector Assessment Assesses individual species. Narrow perspective and spatial scale. Short-term perspective. Humans are independent of ecosystem. Conservative resource management. Single use observations. Integrated Ecosystem Assessments

7. 7 What are Integrated Ecosystem Assessments? Integrated Ecosystem Assessment (IEA): –“ A synthesis and quantitative analysis of information on relevant physical, chemical, ecological and human processes in relation to specified ecosystem management objectives ”. An IEA: –Incorporates multiple indicators of the environment and ecosystem, including human factors –Is geographically specified –Establishes target levels and thresholds for important ecosystem components –Evaluates the impacts of management options and risks of not attaining target ecosystem states

8. 8 Why Should NOAA Conduct IEAs? Increasingly diverse set of issues which NOAA is charged to manage – often with overlapping jurisdictions Increasing demand on NOAA to improve status of stocks -- beyond ending overfishing in 2010 Increasing pressures among coastal states to balance competing uses of ecosystem goods and services using science NOAA has data, research, models, and science components needed to conduct IEAs….. ….and could do the integration.

9. 9 How are IEA’s developed (steps & content)? DriverPressure State Impact Response IEA Steps Identify major human and natural factors affecting Ecosystem. Define scale Organize relevant data. Select key Indicators of Ecosystem status Link ecosystem status indicators to drivers & pressures Evaluate ecological & economic impacts of management options Adaptive management Ecosystem Indicators Ecological Models Forecasts & Risk Assessments Management Evaluation #1 #2 #3 #4 #5

10. 10 Ecosystem Models & Forecasts to Assess Responses & Understand Relationships Types of Models Used in IEAs  Food web dynamics & species interactions (tradeoffs)  N-P-Z-D Models (nutrients, phytoplankton, zooplankton, detritus)  Population dynamics models  Habitat selection models (benthic habitats, ocean conditions)  Spatial dynamics (hydrodynamics, movement models, human responses)  Risk assessment & management strategy evaluation (MSE) models  Quantitative risk assessments determine the probability and consequences of not attaining target ecosystem states

11. 11 What are IEA Products? Paper or Plastic? ‘Paper’ = Regional Ecosystem IEA Reports Produced routinely (~4 years) Peer-reviewed 8 Regional Ecosystem-scale IEAs + 1 National Synthesis Report ‘Plastic’ = Dynamic, web-based IEAs IEA products created on demand on-line Local or ‘place based’ scales ‘If-then’ scenarios and other assessment tools to inform specific management questions “ Google ocean ” E.g. Alaska Ecosystem Considerations Report used by the North Pacific Fisheries Management Council Pacific Coast Ocean Observing System (PaCOOS Website)

12. 12 Where is NOAA proposing to develop IEAs?

13. 13 GOAL: Improve management of marine ecosystems by:  developing new modeling and analysis procedures to better quantify ecosystem processes, dynamics and responses in relation to human activities  evaluating the effectiveness of Marine Protected Areas to achieve management objectives Comparative Analysis of Marine Ecosystem Organization (CAMEO)

14. 14 CAMEO can provide a Basis to Compare Ecosystems A Modeling Framework for Ecosystem Dynamics Skill Assessment Analytical framework from which to collect necessary information Simulation component to understand sensitivity to model parameters Basis to deduce underlying ecosystem responses

15. 15 CAMEO Program Tasks Task 1: Quantitative Frameworks ECOPATH and other mass balance models are the state of the art, but there is a need to quantitatively account for uncertainties and non-linear dynamics as complex systems adjust to various drivers. Construct/apply energy budget and dynamical models of managed marine ecosystems to understand dynamics by directly contrasting system behaviors Investigate the processes influencing population linkages for target species

16. 16 CAMEO Program Tasks Task 2: Application of Quantitative Frameworks to Existing Ecosystem Data Apply existing data to selected ecosystem types, in order to provide greater understanding of emergent principles of ecosystem response. Select a variety of managed ecosystems representing a wide range of conditions (temperature, species richness, coastal, offshore) to be compared. Compare/contrast how ecosystem types respond to various physical and anthropogenic stresses – interpret mechanistic relationships (e.g., size spectrum models, biodiversity, trophic links).

17. 17 CAMEO Program Tasks Task 3: Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Marine Protected Areas as Management Tools Supporting EAM Undertake analysis, modeling and selected field work inside and in adjacent areas outside of selected US MPAs to understand their impacts on several scales, including how various metrics of ecosystem “health” and population dynamics respond over time. Targeted sampling to elucidate critical meta-population and ecosystem interactions and linkages

18. 18 CAMEO Program Funding: $10M/yr for five years, competitive grants –$5M NSF –$5M NOAA RFP anticipated in October 2007

19. 19 Thank you