REDD+ Methodologies for Regional and Local Land- cover Thelma Krug Co-Chair of the IPCC Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Head of INPE´s International Affairs Office

REDD+ Agenda item of the UNFCCC, still being negotiated Introduced at COP-11 (2005) : Positive incentives and policy approaches for reducing emissions from deforestation COP 16, Cancun Encourages developing country Parties to contribute to mitigation actions in the forest sector by undertaking the following activities… (a) Reducing emissions from deforestation; (b) Reducing emissions from forest degradation; (c) Conservation of forest carbon stocks; (d) Sustainable management of forest; (e) Enhancement of forest carbon stocks.

REDD+ at COP-16 Requests developing country Parties aiming to undertake activities … to develop the following elements: (a) A national strategy or action plan; (b) A national forest reference emission level and/or forest reference level (c) A robust and transparent national forest monitoring system for the monitoring and reporting of the REDD+ (d) A system for providing information on how the safeguards are being addressed and respected

REDD+ at COP-13 To establish … robust and transparent national forest monitoring systems : (i) Use a combination of remote sensing and ground-based forest carbon inventory approaches for estimating anthropogenic forest-related GHG emissions by sources and removals by sinks, forest carbon stocks and forest area changes (ii) Provide estimates that are transparent, consistent, as far as possible accurate (iii) Are transparent and their results are available and suitable for review

REDD+ at COP-16 Decides that the activities undertaken by Parties …should be implemented in phases development of national strategies or action plans, policies and measures, and capacity-building implementation of national policies and measures and national strategies or action plans (further capacity-building, technology development and transfer and results-based demonstration activities) results-based actions that should be fully measured, reported and verified

REDD+ at COP-16 : SBSTA Work Program SBSTA WP on policy approaches and positive incentives on issues relating to reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries; and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries Identify land use, land-use change and forestry activities in developing countries, in particular those that are linked to the drivers of deforestation and forest degradation, to identify the associated methodological issues to estimate emissions and removals resulting from these activities, and to assess their potential contribution to the mitigation of climate change Develop as necessary, modalities for measuring, reporting and verifying anthropogenic forest-related emissions by sources and removals by sinks, forest carbon stocks, forest carbon stock and forest area changes resulting from the implementation of REDD+ activities

REDD+ at COP-13 To use the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change guidance and guidelines as a basis for estimating anthropogenic forest-related greenhouse gas emissions by sources and removals by sinks, forest carbon stocks and forest area changes For deforestation – methodologies under land converted to cropland, grassland, wetlands, settlements, or other land For forest degradation – methodologies for forest land remaining forest land Changes in carbon stock due to disturbances (fire, logging activities)

IPCC GPG/LULUCF (2003) Emissions normally estimated as product of: Area deforested (or degraded) Carbon stock in area deforested (or degraded) Living biomass Aboveground Belowground Dead organic matter Litter Dead wood Soil organic carbon Total emissions = CO2 + non-CO2

Evolution of REDD+ Methodologies In the near future (possibly at sub-national level) Methodological approaches to establish emission reference levels for deforestation and forest degradation Supported by use of historical remotely sensed data for area deforested / degraded (dependant on definitions used) Landsat, SPOT Modeling future deforestation (?) Socio-economic data,historical remotely sensed data (Conservative) default value(s) for the average biomass density (and corresponding carbon stock) in forest land (s) General lack of national forest inventories Identification of changes in forest area Remotely sensed data of similar spatial resolution of the emissions reference level Most countries not autonomous – capacity building + technology transfer needed at large

Frentes de desmatamento 91-96: Dalves (2000)

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Evolution of REDD+ Methodologies In the medium to long-term future Transition matrices identification of drivers Forest land converted to other land-use (agriculture, grassland, wetlands, settlements, other land) Land converted to forest land Monitoring the implementation of policies and measures to reduce deforestation and forest degradation

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Evolution of REDD+ Methodologies In the medium to long-term future Transition matrices identification of drivers Forest land converted to other land-use (agriculture, grassland, wetlands, settlements, other land) Land converted to forest land Monitoring the implementation of policies and measures to reduce deforestation and forest degradation (creation of conservation units, least impact logging, moratorium...) Implementation and operationalization of early warning systems to detect deforestation and forest degradation (or alterations in forest cover) E.g., DETER system MODIS data

Early warning – every 15 days... DETER: Deforestation detection in real time

Evolution of REDD+ Methodologies In the future : long-term (national level) Methodological approaches to establish a national emissions reference level for deforestation and forest degradation Supported by use of historical or projected remotely sensed data for area deforested / degraded (depending on definitions used) Landsat, SPOT, DMC,...; integration with other ancillary socio- economic data (population, GDP...) Average biomass density (and corresponding carbon stock) in diferent forest types and physiognomies Remotely sensed data (P-band for tropical dense forests, LIDAR, ALOS) and data from national forest inventories Carbon map for forest land Estimation of emissions through time Forest area change and carbon map Changes in soil carbon

Challenges Identification of anthropogenic / non-anthropogenic changes in forest cover Deforestation, natural disturbances (pest attacks, fires), climate change driven (die-back, intensified pest attacks and fires) IPCC The scientific community cannot currently provide a practicable methodology that would factor out direct human-induced effects from indirect human induced and natural effects for any broad range of LULUCF Modelling efforts presently being carried out

Challenges Continuity of satellite missions that provide consistent data through time for M(easuring) M(onitoring) V(erifying) REDD+ activities Continuous capacity-building to ensure autonomous use of the new technologies (radar data, hyperspectral) Open access to data, including high resolution data for countries with deforestation characterized by small patches of deforestation and forest degradation Financial means to support the implementation of a well designed National Forest Inventories (to ensure availability of field data that could be useful for calibration purposes)