Climate Change and Social Conflict in Latin America and the Caribbean Washington, August 29 th, 2008

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report IPCC Fourth Assessment Report – Technical Summary of the Working group II contribution, page 10

Climate Change in LAC, expected impacts: Changes in precipitation trends (High confidence) Andean inter-tropical glaciers likely to disappear over the next decades (high confidence). Continuous decline in natural land cover at very high rates (high confidence) Risk of significant species extinctions in many areas of tropical Latin America (high confidence). 50% of agricultural lands likely to be subjected to desertification and salinisation in some areas, by the 2050s (high confidence) Increase in the number of people experiencing water stress likely to be between 7 and 77 million by the 2020s (medium confidence). The expected increases in sea-level rise (SLR), weather and climatic variability and extremes are very likely to affect coastal areas (high confidence). IPCC Fourth Assessment Report – chapter 13: Rainfall and deforestation trends in LAC IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

Climatic Factors Non-Climatic Factors El Niño/La Niña - Southern OscillationExternal Factors Demographic Pressure (poverty, malnutrition, water, sanitation, sewerage, health and education) Over-exploitation of Natural Resources (aquifers, fisheries, mining, agriculture, forests, tourism, ports expansion) Pollution (Heavy metals, industrial chemicals, detergents, organic matter, agrochemicals) Natural Ecosystems (Biodiversity Hotspots, ecological services, CO 2 ) Agriculture (food security, bio-fuels) Water Resources (irrigation, energy, human consumption,) Coastal (ports, cities, natural disasters) Human Health (tropical, viral, skin, bacterial diseases) Vulnerability: A Function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity (McCarthy et al, 2001) Vulnerability in LAC Tourism (infrastructure, ecotourism)

Coral Reefs Coastal Wetlands Tropical Glaciers Rainforest High Mountain Climate Change Areas of work: priority sectors – technology transfer – strategic alliances – adaptation measures – policy strengthening IPCC 2007a LAC - identification of vulnerable areas

Climate Change - Water The current vulnerabilities observed in many regions of Latin American countries will be increased by the joint negative effect of growing demands due to an increasing population rate for water supply and irrigation, and the expected drier conditions in many basins IPCC – 2008 IPCC – 2008 The following are expected to be effected as outcomes of climate change: Precipitations (including extremes) and water vapour Snow and land ice Sea level Evapotranspiration Soil moisture Runoff and river discharge Patterns of large-scale variability Through the dynamic nature of the hydrological systems, climate change impacts on water are expected to translate into negative outcomes in the following systems and sectors: Ecosystems and biodiversity Agriculture and food security, land use and forestry Human health Water supply and sanitation Settlements and infrastructure Economy: insurance, tourism, industry, transportation

Climate Change - Food Agriculture-based livelihood systems that are already vulnerable to food insecurity face immediate risk of increased crop failure, new patterns of pests and diseases, lack of appropriate seeds and planting material, and loss of livestock Wulf Killmann - FAO 2007 Ericksen, Conceptualizing food systems for global environmental change research A food system is vulnerable when one or more of the four components of food security – food availability, food accessibility, food utilization and food system stability - is uncertain and insecure. Concerns for food systems and food security*: CO2 fertilization effects; Increase in global mean temperatures; Gradual changes in precipitation (increase in the frequency, duration and intensity of dry spells and droughts); Gradual changes in precipitation (changes in timing, location and amounts of rain and snowfall); Impacts of increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events; Impacts of greater weather variability Climate Change And Food Security: A Framework Document FAO 2007

Climate Change - Energy Energy insecurity stems from the welfare impact of either the physical unavailability of energy, or prices that are not competitive or overly volatile. IEA 2007 Hydrological changes will directly affect the potential output of hydro-electric facilities – both those currently existing and possible future projects. Other energy infrastructure, such as power transmission lines, offshore drilling rigs and pipelines, may be vulnerable to damage from flooding and more intense storm events. (IPCC 2008) Hydropower is the main electrical energy source for most countries in Latin America, and is vulnerable to large-scale and persistent rainfall anomalies due to El Niño and La Niña Expected further glacier retreat is projected to impact the generation of hydro-electricity in countries such as Colombia and Peru Key World Energy Statistics IEA 2007Energy Economic information system OLADE 2007

Climate Change - Health Climate change currently contributes to the global burden of disease and premature deaths (Very High Confidence) IPCC IPCC 2007a Human health, incorporating physical, social and psychological well-being, depends on an adequate supply of potable water and a safe environment. Human beings are exposed to climate change directly through weather patterns (more intense and frequent extreme events), and indirectly through changes in water, air, food quality and quantity, ecosystems, agriculture, livelihoods and infrastructure. It has been estimated that the total excess costs for the management of three climate- related diseases (diarrheal disease, malnutrition and malaria) in 2030 would be between US$ $3,000 and $17,000 million in different climate change scenarios. (Ebi, 2007*) The total investment needs for combating diarrheal disease would be $67 billion, malnutrition $2 billion, and malaria $36 to $50 billion in (s750 scenario). (Ebi, 2007*) *Health impacts of climate change report to the UNFCCC Secretariat financial and technical support

Climate Change - Tourism ImpactImplications for tourism Warmer temperaturesAltered seasonality, heat stress for tourists, cooling costs, changes in plant-wildlife-insect populations and distribution, infectious disease ranges Decreasing snow cover and shrinking glaciers Lack of snow in winter sport destinations, increased snow- making costs, shorter winter sports seasons, aesthetics of landscape reduced Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme storms Risk for tourism facilities, increased insurance costs/loss of insurability, business interruption costs Reduced precipitation and increased evaporation in some regions Water shortages, competition over water between tourism and other sectors, desertification, increased wildfires threatening infrastructure and affecting demand Increased frequency of heavy precipitation in some regions Flooding damage to historic architectural and cultural assets, damage to tourism infrastructure, altered seasonality Sea level riseCoastal erosion, loss of beach area, higher costs to protect and maintain waterfronts Sea surface temperatures rise Increased coral bleaching and marine resource and aesthetics degradation in dive and snorkel destinations Changes in terrestrial and marine biodiversity Loss of natural attractions and species from destinations, higher risk of diseases in tropical-subtropical countries More frequent and larger forest fires Loss of natural attractions; increase of flooding risk; damage to tourism infrastructure Soil changes (e.g., moisture levels, erosion and acidity) Loss of archaeological assets and other natural resources, with impacts on destination attractions Climate defines the length and quality of multi-billion dollar tourism seasons and plays a major role in destination choice and tourist spending UNWTO IPCC 2007a

Strategy Demographic Pressure (poverty, malnutrition, water, sanitation, sewerage, health and education) Over-exploitation of Natural Resources (aquifers, fisheries, mining, agriculture, forests, tourism, ports expansion) Pollution (Heavy metals, industrial chemicals, detergents, organic matter, agrochemicals) Vulnerability SECCI – Pillar 4: Adaptation Climate Change Social Conflict Water Supply Food supply Energy Supply Health Tourism IDB SECCI Country Sectors Projects MAINSTREAMING Vulnerability Assessments Adaptation pilots Institutional capacity Public Outreach Climate Change sensing, monitoring, early warning Preventive risk management National/Sub- national/regional strategy Climate resilient and low carbon economy (+) (-) SECTORSEXTERNAL FACTORS

SECCI – Mexico Federal and State level climate change measuresIDBs technical and financial tools Federal Level State Level ME-T1089, Support for Sustainable Projects Feasibility Studies, NAFIN ME-T1110, Support to Energy Efficiency Projects Fund, BANCOMEXT ME-T1088, Support to Mexican Carbon Fund, FOMECAR ME-T1082, Support the Development of the National Stern Report ME-T1064, Support to Climatic Change National Strategy PECC ME-T1116, T1119… Support to the preparation of the Climate Change Action Plan PEACCs (5 states) NFP climate models. MOU with NCAR and other research centers for the development of climate scenarios to help in the development of vulnerability and adaptive capacity studies Other sources. International funding for adaptation and mitigation pilots Support to the design and implementation of FEFP, and the institutional strengthening of NAFIN in EE Assistance to CDM project promoters, CDM methodology development and creation of validation entities Economic quantification of the impacts of climate change to the Mexican economy Foster commercial bank participation in EE projects PECC Support Team Mainstreaming adaptation and mitigation in sectors Institutional strengthening of SEMARNAT, INE, Secretaria Hacienda Federal Climate Change National Strategy, PECC State Climate Change National Strategy, PEACCs (phase I, 5 states) Tabasco, Yucatán, Tamaulipas, Oaxaca, Chiapas Sector Policies Implementation of the selected mitigation projects Design of final pilots Implementation MITIGATION Information analysis and processing GHG inventory C/B analysis Adaptation pilots ADAPTATION Scenario selection Vulnerability Studies Identification C/B Selection Pre-design Pilot Measures Adaptation Strategy

SECCI – Colombia National and Sub-national level integrated climate change program DNP IDB Climate Change Integrated Program CONPES - BioFuels Restructuring Climate Change Agenda MAVDT Adaptation and Mitigation Programs Political Agencies IdeamUPME Colciencia FINDETER Federación Nacional de Biocombustibles Implemeting Agencies DNPHacienda MAVDT Min. Minas y Energía Climate Change National and Sub-national plans Proexport Cerrejón CONPES Min. Transporte Min. Agricultura Ecopetrol Bancolombia Private Sector MAVDT: Ministerio de ambiente, vivienda y desarrollo territorial SECCI (4 pillars)

SECCI – NCAR SECCI is in the process of signing a technical cooperation agreement with the National Center for Atmospheric Research, NCAR. Projects in the pipeline include: I. MEXICO: Assessment of vulnerabilities to and anticipated impacts of climate change over the Mexican Grijalva-Usumacinta watershed using a coupled hydro-meteorological modeling tool. Modeling of local climate over the Gulf of Mexico (particularly southern Gulf states) Development of a coupled hydro- meteorological model for the Grijalva- Usumacinta watershed Assessment of vulnerabilities to and anticipated impacts of climate change for the Grijalva-Usumacinta watershed and its implications to dependent communities and ecosystems NCAR – Washington DC May 2008

SECCI – NCAR II.PERU: The IDB is supporting the local government of Lambayeque through the development of a technical cooperation that will help in the preparation of feasibility studies for an irrigation-hydro energy project. Generation of data from downscaled regional models that could be fed into the development of an Integrated Watersheds Management Plan for Olmos including four main watersheds (e.g. Cascajal, Olmos, Motupe, La Leche). Assessment of expected impacts of climate change to the regional climate and the hydrological cycle with emphasis on the frequency and intensity of natural disasters and other climate events such as El Niño. Development of future vulnerability to climate change of local communities and the planned investment. NCAR – Washington DC May 2008 Embalse Limon Tunel transan dino CH2 Conmutador Túnel de aducció n CH1 Túnel de aducció n Riego 37,000 ha en Olmos LAMBAYEQUE CAJAMARCA Embals e olmos PIURA TC, IDB Document, T-PE1026

THANK YOU CP20965T