Global Adaptation Index (GaIn ) Measuring What Matters Carnegie Moscow Center Moscow, Russia | November 9, 2011 Rev. 2/9/ Photo courtesy: Oxfam International Photo courtesy: ugraland

The Adaptation Challenge The world is changing Mitigation is not working … Adaptation is essential and urgent 2 Rev. 2/9/2014 Photo courtesy: Citt

The Institute Formed in 2010 First major organization to focus exclusively on adaptation Nonprofit, nonpartisan & private sector led The Global Adaptation Institute is a non-profit organization guided by a vision of building resilience to climate change and other global forces as a key component to sustainable development. Our mission is to enhance the worlds understanding of the urgency for adaptation to climate change and other global forces and for the support needed through private and public investments for developing countries. 3 Rev. 2/9/2014 Photo courtesy: thisisbossi

Our Work Global Adaptation Index (GaIn) Demonstration projects Education and outreach 4 Rev. 2/9/2014 Photo courtesy: Oxfam International

These Investments Are Not Optional Urbanization, population growth and economic development will and should continue Failure to adapt will lead to an increase in losses We are already suffering an adaptation deficit Percentage of global population affected by climate-related disasters Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database – Université Catholique de Louvain, Brussels (Belgium) Trend line 5 Rev. 2/9/2014

These Investments Are Not Optional $ billion USD per year needed in adaptation investments for developing countries Current flows to developing countries <$1 billion USD per year Adaptation Investment Gap 1. Allocation estimate is an Institute summation of 2011 annual adaptation allocations by the UNFCCC, World Bank and Global Environment Facility. 2. Parry et al. Assessing the costs of adaptation to climate change. Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College, London and International Institute for Environment and Development (UK) The World Bank Group. The Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change Rev. 2/9/2014 World total Developing countries 2

Most Investment Needs to Come from the Private Sector Governments must facilitate private sector action through appropriate public policies Greater commitment from UNFCCC and multilaterals on adaptation 7 Rev. 2/9/2014

The Readiness Matrix Information to assist private, public and NGO actors in identifying threats and opportunities Rigorous tool to help prioritize investments Simple, iconic index to guide governments on how best to move the needle 8 Rev. 2/9/2014

Global Adaptation Index (GaIn) A navigation tool to prioritize and measure progress in adapting to climate change Relevant to governments, NGOs, international institutions and the private sector Extensive process to develop, test and review Global Adaptation Index (GaIn) State of the World on Adaptation 9 Rev. 2/9/2014

Criteria for Selecting Metrics and GaIn Consultation Vulnerability Readiness Criteria for selecting metrics Transparent and Authoritative sources Open Access Structured and modular Actionable Temporal (data tracked through time) Scalable Several hundred metrics considered 38 indicators in current version Over 100,000 items of data go into GaIn Global Adaptation Index (GaIn) 10 Rev. 2/9/2014

Vulnerability Measures Currently 24 measures Quantity and Quality measures for core sectors Sector ExposureSensitivityCapacity Water Food Health Infrastructure Coastal Energy Transport Legend Quantitative Qualitative Global Adaptation Index (GaIn) 11 Rev. 2/9/2014

Vulnerability Measures Readily expandable Modular design is adaptable to include different inputs SectorExposureSensitivityCapacity Water Food Health Ecosystem Services 1 Infrastructure Coastal Energy Transport Urban (Public) 1 Informal Settlements 1 Legend Quantitative Qualitative 1. Possible indicators for inclusion in future versions of GaIn Global Adaptation Index (GaIn) 12 Rev. 2/9/2014

Global Adaptation Index (GaIn) SectorExposureSensitivityCapacity Water Quantity Projected change in precipitation Internal and external freshwater water extracted for all uses Population with access to improved water supply Quality Projected change in temperature Mortality among under 5 yr.-olds due to water- borne diseases Population with access to improved sanitation Food Quantity Projected change in agricultural (cereal) yield Population living in rural areas Agricultural capacity Quality Coefficient of variation in cereal crop yields Food import dependency Children under 5 suffering from malnutrition Health Quantity Estimated impact of future climate change on deaths from disease Health workers per capita Longevity Quality Mortality due to communicable (infectious) diseases Health expenditure derived from external resources Maternal mortality Infrastructure Coast Quantity Land less than 10m above sea-level Population living less than 10m above sea- level Measured on the Readiness Axis Energy Quantity Population with access to reliable electricity Energy at risk Transport Quantity Frequency of floods per unit area Roads paved Rev. 2/9/ Vulnerability Indicators

1. Indicators are taken from the Index of Economic Freedom (IEF) with permission from The Heritage Foundation and The Wall Street Journal. 2. Indicators taken from World Governance Indicators (WGI) with permission from the World Bank. 3. Taken from International Telecommunication Union data with permission from the United Nations. 4. Taken from World Development Indicators with permission form the World Bank Global Adaptation Index (GaIn) ComponentIndicator Economic 1 Business freedom Trade freedom Fiscal Freedom Government Spending Monetary Freedom Investment Freedom Financial Freedom Governance 2 Voice & Accountability Political Stability & Non-Violence Control of Corruption Social Mobiles per 100 persons 3 Labor Freedom 1 Tertiary Education 4 Rule of Law 2 14 Rev. 2/9/2014 Readiness Indicators Currently 14 measures

Testing the Indices Group countries into blocks of similar GaIn Vulnerability Calculate the proportion of their population affected by a climate disaster ( ) GaIn Vulnerability and recent climate risk appear to be related Does the GaIn Vulnerability score relate to the impacts of recent disasters? Global Adaptation Index (GaIn) 15 Rev. 2/9/2014

Global Adaptation Index (GaIn) 16 Rev. 2/9/2014 The Rankings

Global Adaptation Index (GaIn) 17 Rev. 2/9/2014 Whos on Top?

Global Adaptation Index (GaIn) 18 Rev. 2/9/2014 Lowest Ranks?

Global Adaptation Index (GaIn) 19 Rev. 2/9/2014 Improvements

The readiness and vulnerability scores are obviously correlated, but there is a scatter of countries across the Readiness Matrix Global Adaptation Index (GaIn) 20 Rev. 2/9/2014 Readiness Matrix 2009 The Readiness Matrix

Vulnerability Richness in interpretation of the time series information GaIn performance over time ( ) Readiness Low High Global Adaptation Index (GaIn) 21 Rev. 2/9/2014 Recent Performance

Direct measures of income or wealth were avoided in deriving GaIn Nevertheless, still highly correlated Vulnerability compared with GDP per capita 1. Logarithm of the Gross Domestic Product per capita (in units of 2005 USD) adjusted for purchasing power parity Increasing wealth Increasing vulnerability Global Adaptation Index (GaIn) 22 Rev. 2/9/2014 Ln(GDP[PPP]) per cap 1 Vulnerability Score All countries (1995 – 2010) Vulnerability and Poverty

Global Adaptation Index (GaIn) 23 The Rankings Geographic Perspective Rev. 2/9/2014 Low High GaIn Rank

Global Adaptation Index (GaIn) 24 The Rankings Income Adjusted Rev. 2/9/2014 Low High GaIn Rank

Income Adjusted Global Adaptation Index (GaIn) 25 The Rankings Rev. 2/9/2014

Roles for the Public Sector Understand greatest needs for the most vulnerable Determine most efficient use of resources Understand relative urgencies Remove impediments to action by public and private sector 26 Rev. 2/9/2014

Roles for the Private Sector New products & services Risk mitigation Corporate Social Responsibility Ecosystem & environmental markets 27 Rev. 2/9/2014

Demonstration Projects Over 270 projects identified 10 projects profiled for discussion of potential for private sector engagement Currently, a significant lack of purely private sector- led adaptation initiatives 28 Rev. 2/9/2014

Project Selection Criteria Need "What's the need?" Biophysical sensitivity Socio-economic sensitivity Adaptation capacity Effectiveness "Will it work?" Implementation Risk Integration/ Collaboration SimplicityProject maturity Stakeholder involvement Impact "Will it have an impact?" Near-term impactExpedienceMeasurability Continuity / Sustainability Scalability "Can it be scaled up?" ScalabilityReplicability Communicability Marketability Will companies invest?" ReadinessCost-effectivenessEntrepreneurismInnovationROI potential Attractiveness to private sector Opportunities for local & small companies 29 Rev. 2/9/2014

Linking Projects to GaIn 30 Rev. 2/9/2014

Partnering with the Institute Advisory Council Council of Scientific Advisors Director and Trustee level of support Global Adaption Index Demonstration Projects Outreach 31 Rev. 2/9/2014

THANK YOU! Questions? Please contact: Dr. Ian Noble Chief Scientist (202) Dr. Bruno Sanchez-Andrade Nuño Director of Science & Technology (202) Global Adaptation Institute 1747 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Suite 1125 Washington, DC Rev. 2/9/2014

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