Second International Conference on Early Warning (EWC-II) Bonn, October 2003 Integrating Early Warning in Disaster Preparedness and Response in Morocco Mohamed JALIL

VULNERABILITY OF MOROCCO TO HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL HAZARDS

Vulnerability key-factors zClimate zGeomophology zPopulation and economy

Vulnerability key-factors Climate Geomophology Population and economy zCharacterised by variability yLong-term variability yShort-time variability ySpace variabilitySpace variability zDominated by the aridity

Vulnerability key-factors Climate Geomophology Population and economy zContrasted relief yMountains (Atlas Range, Rif heights) yCoastal and west inland plains ySaharan plateaux zDiversified local geography

Vulnerability key-factors Climate Geomophology Population and economy zPopulation y30 millions with a growth rate 1.7% y56% live in urban area (the bulk in littoral) y19% live below national poverty threshold zEconomy yDiversified but still dominated by agriculture

Hydrometeorological hazards The most remarkable and severe hazards hitting Morocco are DROUGHT and FLOODS, but sometimes OTHER hydrometeorological events can also become extreme and hazardous

Hydrometeorological hazards Drought Floods Others zStructural stress yThe droughts are becoming more prolonged ySevere impact on agriculture and water res. zIts impact is exacerbated in rural areas yRainfed agriculture (traditional farming and livestock rearing)

Hydrometeorological hazards Drought Floods Others zFlooding is being a recurrent hazard yFlash floods caused by convective storms ySteady floods caused by heavy rain zTheir impact is emphasised by: yLocal topography yLand use change yhigh population density (urban and suburban areas)

Hydrometeorological hazards Drought Floods Others Meteorological conditions also play key role in the outbreak of other natural extreme events extreme events

EW, DISATSERS PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE: flooding and drought cases

Flooding zFlood Warning zFlood preparedness zFlood response

Observing networks: hydrometeorological stations, remote sensing data, aerologic data FORCASTING MODELS Warning bulletins

Flooding hazards Warning Preparedness and response zMonitoring system yMeteorological ground-based stations yHydrological measuring stations yRadio-sounding yRadar network ySatellite data and imagery

Flooding hazards Warning Preparedness and response zForecasts yMedium range forecast ySynoptical range forecast by using ALADIN model outputs yShort and Very Short range forecast improved by using radar echo

Flooding hazards Warning Preparedness and response zWarning bulletins yPre-alert bulletins yAlert bulletins (BMS, BMA)

Flooding hazards Warning Preparedness and response zLong term activities yDecentralisation of water planning governmental activity yHazard Reduction Programs using engineering measures (protective infrastructure) yMitigation measures (hydraulic domain regulations, afforestation, sewage master- plans, etc.)

Flooding hazards Warning Preparedness and response zShort term activities yReal-time following up of the hydromet situation using the guidelines of the Ministry of Equipment yORSEC (Organisation des Secours Relief Organisation) plans by a committee co- ordinated by the Prefecture

Practical Guidelines for rainfall and flood disasters management zBooklet issued and regularly updated by the Ministry of Equipment. The key elements are: The organisation of material and human resources involved (duty personal, technicians, telecommunications) The organisation of the monitoring bureau (Command Post) Forecasting organisation (weather bulletins, alerts thresholds, warning management) Organisation and management of the intervention plan and Intervention Assessment.

Flooding hazards Warning Preparedness and response zAfter-disaster management yRelief and public assistance organisation ySocio-economic assessment of the hazard impact

Drought zDrought Warning zDrought preparedness and response

Drought Warning Preparedness and response zRainfall seasonal prediction programme yLong term prediction of the precipitation yClimate modelling using the statistical correlation between the precipitation and the global climate patterns

Drought Warning Preparedness and response zAl Masifa project yImplemented in partnership with Météo_France, ONM (Algeria) and INM (Tunisia) with financial support from the EC yPrediction of the rainfall state( dry, normal, wet)using the relationship between SST anomalies and regional precipitation

Drought Warning Preparedness and response zAl Moubarak project yAn ongoing programme developed with Oklahoma university yClimate modelling using the statistical correlation between the precipitation and the global climate patterns (NAO)

Drought Warning Preparedness and response zInstitutional arrangements yConseil Supérieur de lEau et du Climat (High Council of Water and Climate), yDecentralisation of water planning (water agencies) yLaws and regulations (law on water, environmental impact)

Drought Warning Preparedness and response zMitigation and adaptation programmes yInvestment incentive for the modernisation of irrigation methods and equipment yAgronomic research yRural populations water supply programme yDrought insurance

CONSTRAINTS AND DIFFICULTIES

zProhibitive cost of the EWS and the response measures zGeographical constraints making it difficult to deal with the whole territory zWeak co-ordination at the institutional level zLack in public awareness and education zLack in human capabilities although Morocco has good skilled engineers (Met., Hydraulics, agriculture, etc.), the EW management capacities are still weak.

Thank you for your kindest attention