Ecosystem Scale in Decision Making: Alaskan Arctic Lands Dr. Wendy M. Loya Ecologist The Wilderness Society Anchorage, Alaska

Ecoregions & Management

Oil in Gas Leases in Alaskan Arctic Caribou fitted with GPS collars can be tracked by satellite throughout the year These data allow us to understand where caribou go, so we can find out why they go there We analyzed six years of data to identify areas supporting calving & insect relief

Oil in Gas in Central Arctic of Alaska Caribou fitted with GPS collars can be tracked by satellite throughout the year These data allow us to understand where caribou go, so we can find out why they go there We analyzed six years of data to identify areas supporting calving & insect relief Yokel et al. 2009

Wildlife Habitat in NPR-A

Some Decision Making Questions & Examples of Data and Methods How do species use the landscape and what habitats do they prefer? – e.g. Resource Selection Model that incorporates wildlife movement monitoring data with habitat data at biologically relevant scale (e.g. patch and landscape) How will habitat selection be affected by development? – e.g. establish Disturbance Coefficients that incorporate wildlife responses to industrial and other human activities How will development alter the landscape? – e.g. multiple plausible Scenarios for Future Development, including oil and gas, roads, ports, etc. How will wild populations respond to development? – e.g. Population Viability Analysis incorporating habitat data, population data, carrying capacity, disturbance coefficients, etc. How will communities respond? – e.g. Resource abundance & distribution, disturbance, economics, cultural traditions and change.

Teshekpuk Lake, a naturally fragmented landscape Yokel et al BLM & DU Google

Teshekpuk Caribou Calving High Value Habitat (RSF) + Currently Leased Tracts Scales/Data: 6 years of data Five summer periods 41 female caribou Habitat variables at Landscape & Patch scale This area provides: nutritious grass- sedge meadows later green-up /peak nutrition slightly elevated, drier terrain This size habitat is unique within NPRA 10% of calving habitat already leased Wilson, Prichard, Parrett, Person, Carroll, Smith, Rea & Yokel (2012) Summer resource selection by the Teshekpuk Caribou Herd in Alaska. PloSOne 7:11

Development Model for NPR-A: Caribou Calving Habitat Conservative estimates based on Federal EIS (BLM/USGS) Uncertainty about how much habitat can be lost before population impacted Data from Wilson et al. submitted

Conservative estimates Direct estimate of nest site loss, but still difficult to determine population level impacts Development Model for NPR-A: Passerine Nests Data from Leibezeit et al 2009 Data from Wilson et al. submitted

Spatial Temporal Magnitude of Action Historic Distribution Limited Data Sub-Population Regional Entire Population Large footprint Global Individual Small footprint Local Past/Current “Best Available Science” Long Term Monitoring Future Scenarios Projections MinimalMaximum Scales for Ecosystem Level Decision Making