1. USGS Global Change Science National Climate Change & Wildlife Science Center and SE Regional Hub Sonya Jones USGS Southeast Area NIDIS Planning Meeting July 21-22, 2009 Chapel Hill, NC U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey http://nccw.usgs.gov/

2. USGS Global Change Science Development National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC): A partnership to sustain fish & wildlife communities in natural systems Climate Effects Network: A vision for a national climate early-warning system Carbon Sequestration: Geological and biological approaches to understanding the fluxes, sequestration and impacts on human and natural systems

3. Partner Listening Sessions National Meeting – December 2008 North American Wildlife and Natural Resources Conference – March 2009 Eastern Region – May 2009 Central Region – June 2009 Western Region – June 2009 National Meeting – July 2009

4. National Climate Change & Wildlife Science Center A partnership to sustain fish & wildlife communities Forecasts fish & wildlife change through: – Down-scaled climate models and derivative products – Integration with ecological & habitat models – Defining population and habitat responses at appropriate scales – Developing response options in an adaptive monitoring framework Joint decision-making with Federal, State and NGO communities National and regional focus on adaptation/impacts

5. RISA NEON USDA Down-scaling of GCMs Regional Response - Eco & Population Models Forecasting Regional Climate Science Hubs GIS & Models Species/habitat assessment Adaptive Mgmt monitoring Feedback Carbon Cycling (?) Adaptive Application Partnerships National Syntheses Standardized Approaches New Science & Methodologies Communication NCCWSC Oversight Boards National Partnerships NPN NASA Science Decision-making CEN National Climate Change & Wildlife Science Center

6. NCCWSC Priorities Analyses of climate information and derivative products Forecasts of fish and wildlife population and habitat change in response to climate change Integration of physical climate information with ecological and habitat response models Standardized approaches to facilitate linking existing monitoring to climate models and ecological and biological response models Communication - sharing information across Regional Hubs and making science products available to natural resource managers

7. NCCWSC APPROACH Global Climate Model Downscaling Ecosystem Response & Forecasting Regional Habitat & Population Response Forecasting Habitat & Species Response Food Habitat Recruitment Adaptive Management & Monitoring Site Specific Species or Populations Response Regional Climate Science Hub Adaptive Application Partnerships Science-based Management-based NCCWSC National Office

8. Regional Climate Science Hubs Cover the Nation (7or 8) Science-based University hosted Ecological & political boundaries Self-generating – Covering multiple AAP’s/LCC’s Partnerships are key

9. Regional Climate Science Hubs Downscaled climate information – linked with ecological/biological response models at scales that help managers develop effective adaptive management strategies Regional response modeling and forecasting of fish and wildlife population and habitat change in response to climate change Derivative products - that link biological and ecological response variables with physical forcing factors (e.g. temperature and precipitation) Modeling possible response scenarios for managers to use in an adaptive management framework

10. Adaptive Application Partnerships Four to six per Hub Landscape/geography-based Partnership-led Regional Climate Science Hub Outputs: – Combination of expression w/other landscape drivers – Geographic expression of ecological & habitat nodes from RCSH’s at management scales – Priority management goals and time frames

11. Adaptive Application Partnerships USGS Commitments – Research & Modeling – Adaptive response forecasts including other drivers – Monitoring protocols USGS Benefits – Strengthening RCSH output – Builds traditional strengths – Partners with other expertise – Leverages resources – Feeds CEN & other monitoring needs

12. SE Regional Science Hub Pilot Demonstration project: integrates climate change science with habitat and species response models to assess impacts on avian and aquatic species Cast predictive models calibrated from data gathered during recent decades NOAA Climate data Remote sensing data USGS - BBS & MAPS data Downscaled climate models Watershed modeling

13. SE Regional Science Hub Pilot Regional probabilistic projections of climate change to support all projects Regional probabilistic projections of landuse change to support all projects Pilot Projects – Ecological models to project impacts to avian and aquatic species (SAMBI and ACF basin) – Sea-level rise – impacts on coastal fish and wildlife (AL & MS) – Integrate terrestrial and aquatic habitat conservation

14. SE Regional Science Hub Pilot Staffing – Science lead/coordinator – climate modeler – Ecological/habitat modeler – data management/support Location – University TBD after RFI Products – Regional climate models – Regional land use change models – Regional ecological models – Data management Integration with AAPs – Ecoregionally based teams responsible for finer scale biological planning and conservation design