actualforecast Hydro, wind, and other renewables NGLs Coalbed methane Conventional natural gas Mined and in situ bitumen Conventional heavy oil Conventional L&M oil Coal Figure 1. Total energy production in Alberta

Figure 2

Figure 3. same as 3.23

Figure 4 same as Total gas production in Alberta actualforecast

Figure 5. Alberta Conventional Crude Oil Production and Price Source: Prices - CAPP Statistical Handbook EUB Prorationing Plan (restricted production) Major Oil Field Discoveries 1947 – Leduc 1948 – Redwater 1949 – Golden Spike 1952 – Bonnie Glen 1953 – Pembina 1957 – Swan Hill 1959 – Judy Creek 1959 – Swan Hill South Rainbow Major Events Affecting Price 1973 – Oil Embargo 1979 – Iranian Revolution 1980 – Iran / Iraq War 1986 – OPEC Crumbles 1990 – Gulf War 1998 – Asian Econ. Crisis 2001 – 9 / – Iraq War Petroleum and Natural Gas Conservation Board (EUB) created to enforce production standards Export Pipelines 1950 – Interprovincial Pipeline (Enbridge) 1953 – Trans Mountain Pipe Line

Figure 6. Alberta mined bitumen and synthetic crude oil production and price Cdn$/cubic metre Great Canadian Oil Sands (Suncor) Startup Syncrude Startup Alberta Oil Sands Project Startup

Figure 7. Alberta in situ bitumen production and price Cdn$/cubic metres

Figure 8. Historical natural gas production and price Gas prices as a by-product of oil production. Price less than replacement cost Arbitration awards price increase Regulated gas price tied to oil prices. Surplus built up Price deregulation Surplus gas drives down prices PGT expansion Late 1998: Northern Border/TCPL expansion 2000: Alliance Pipeline Hurricanes Katerina and Rita hit U.S. Gulf Coast Foothills Pipe Lines built for gas exports to California and the mid-western U.S. 1956: TransCanada Pipelines built to take Alberta gas to central Canada and the U.S. after debate over its charter in Parliament

Figure 9. Sulphur closing inventories in Alberta and price

1898 – Expansion of railway network (coal and oil fired steam engines) and growth of population 1952 – Beginning of change to diesel-electric trains 1960 – Steam rail era ends Late1960’s – Beginning of exports to Japan for steel industry 1970’s – increase in coal-fired electric generation 1950’s – Crude oil and natural gas replace coal as energy source of choice Coal remained “King Coal” until huge reservoirs of crude oil and natural gas were discovered Figure 10. Historical coal production and price Australian-Japan contract price for thermal coal ( Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics - ABARE) Late 1990’s – mine closures and reduced coal exports due to depressed coal prices

Figure 1.1 OPEC crude basket reference price 2006

Figure 1.3 Price of WTI at Chicago actualforecast High Low

Figure 1.4 Average price of oil at Alberta wellhead actualforecast High Low

Figure Average monthly reference prices of Alberta crudes Figure average monthly reference prices in Alberta

Figure 1.7 Average price of natural gas at plant gate actualforecast high low

Figure 1.8 Alberta Wholesale Electricity Prices actualforecast

Figure 1.10 Canadian economic indicators

Figure 1.11 Alberta real investment actualforecast

ATHABASCA COLD LAKE PEACE RIVER Figure 2.7. Production of Bitumen in Alberta, m 3 /d Mined Bitumen In Situ

Figure 2.8. Alberta crude oil and equivalent production

Figure 2.9. Alberta crude bitumen production Surface mining In situ actualforecast

Figure Total in situ bitumen production and producing bitumen wells Production (10 3 m 3 /d)

Figure Alberta synthetic crude oil production Synthetic Crude Oil Synthetic crude oil actualforecast

Figure Alberta oil sands upgrading coke inventory Synthetic Crude Oil Oil Sands Plants – Coke Inventory

Figure Alberta demand and disposition of crude bitumen and SCO Synthetic Crude Oil Alberta demand (mainly SCO) actualforecast SCO removals from Alberta Nonupgraded bitumen removals from Alberta

Figure 3.1. Remaining established reserves of crude oil Heavy Light-medium

Figure 3.2. Annual changes in conventional crude oil reserves

Figure 3.3. Annual changes to waterflood reserves

Figure 3.4. Distribution of oil reserves by size Remaining reserves (10 3 m 3 ) Total number of pools (10 3 m 3 ) Initial reserves (10 3 m 3 )

Figure 3.5. Oil pool size by discovery year

Figure 3.7. Geological distribution of reserves of conventional crude oil

2006 Initial established reserves m Remaining established reserves m 3 Fig Regional distribution of Alberta oil reserves (10 6 m 3 )

Figure 3.9. Alberta’s remaining established oil Reserves versus cumulative production

Figure Growth in initial established reserves of crude oil Ultimate potential (3130) actualforecast Actual as of December 31, 2006

Figure Alberta successful oil well drilling By modified PSAC area 2005 Wells Drilled = Wells Drilled =

Total wells = 1956 Figure Oil wells placed on production, 2006 by modified PSAC area

Figure Initial operating day rates of oil wells placed on production, 2006 by modified PSAC area m 3 /day/well [bbl/day/well] 17.2 [109] 12.3 [77] 6.3 [39] 11.5 [72] 8.7 [55] 5.0 [32] 7.6 [48]

Figure Conventional crude oil production by modified PSAC area PSAC 8 PSAC 7 PSAC 5 PSAC 3 PSAC 4 PSAC 2 PSAC 1

Figure Total crude oil production and producing oil wells

Figure Crude oil well productivity in 2006

Figure Total conventional crude oil production by drilled year % of total production from oil wells Pre % 45% 7% 5% 3% 5% 4% 2% 4% 6% 7%

Figure Comparison of crude oil production Texas onshore Louisiana onshore Alberta crude oil

Figure WTI crude oil price and well activity actualforecast

actualforecast Figure Alberta daily production of crude oil Heavy Light-medium

Figure Capacity and location of Alberta refineries

actualforecast Figure Alberta demand and disposition of crude oil Crude oil removals from Alberta Alberta demand

Figure Alberta supply of crude oil and equivalent actualforecast Non upgraded bitumen Light-medium SCO Pentanes plus Heavy

Figure Alberta crude oil and equivalent production actualforecast

Figure 4.4 Coalbed methane production forecast from CBM wells actual forecast

Figure 5.1. Annual reserves additions and production of conventional marketable gas

Figure 5.2. Remaining conventional marketable gas reserves

Figure 5.3. New, development, and revisions to conventional marketable gas reserves

Figure 5.5. Distribution of conventional gas reserves by size Remaining reserves (10 9 m 3 ) Total number of pools (10 6 m 3 ) Initial reserves (10 9 m 3 )

Figure 5.6. Conventional gas pools by size and discovery year

Figure 5.7. Geological distribution of conventional marketable gas reserves

Figure 5.8. Remaining conventional marketable reserves of sweet and sour gas Sweet natural gas Sour natural gas

Figure 5.9. Expected recovery of conventional natural gas components

Ultimate potential based on 2004 study Figure Conventional gas ultimate potential Remaining reserves Production

Figure Conventional gas in place by geological period

Figure Successful conventional gas wells drilled and connected

Figure Marketable gas production by modified PSAC area PSAC 6 PSAC 4 PSAC 5 PSAC 2 PSAC 3 PSAC 1 Gas from oil wells PSAC 7 PSAC 8 % of total production Connection year 2% 4% 3% 12% 4% 20% 39% 6% 10%

Figure Conventional marketable gas production and number of producing wells

Figure Natural gas well productivity in 2006

Pre Gas from oil wells Figure 5.21 Raw gas production by connection year % of total production from gas wells 3 Connection year

Figure Comparison of raw natural gas production Texas onshore Louisiana onshore Alberta

Figure 5.23 Average initial natural gas well productivity in Alberta

Figure Alberta natural gas well activity and price actualforecast

Figure Conventional marketable gas production actualforecast Tcf

Figure Gas production from bitumen upgrading and bitumen wells used for oil sands operations actualforecast

Figure Total gas production in Alberta actualforecast

Figure Alberta natural gas storage injection/withdrawal volumes

Figure Alberta marketable gas demand by sector Reprocessing plant shrinkage Transportation Electricity generation Other industrial Industrial - petrochemical Industrial – oil sands Residential Commercial actualforecast

Figure Historical volumes “available for permitting”

actual forecast Mining and Upgrading In Situ In Situ Cogeneration Mining and Upgrading Cogeneration Figure Purchased natural gas demand for oil sands operations

Figure Gas demand for bitumen recovery and upgrading actualforecast Purchased gas Produced gas from bitumen Process gas from upgrading* * Some m 3 of process gas not shown on this chart is used for electricity generation ( ).

actual forecast Process Gas for Mining/Upgrading Produced Gas from Bitumen Wells for In situ Recovery Purchased Gas for In situ Recovery Purchased Gas for Electricity Cogeneration Purchased Gas for Mining/Upgrading Process Gas for Electricity Cogeneration Figure Total Purchased, Process and Produced Gas for Oil Sands Production

actualforecast Tcf Figure Total marketable gas production and demand 25%24%28%36%44%

Figure 6.1. Remaining established NGL reserves expected to be extracted from conventional gas and 2006 annual production

Figure 6.2. Remaining established reserves of conventional natural gas liquids

Figure 6.3. Schematic of Alberta NGL flows Alberta Gas & NGL Market Alberta Gas & NGL Market - NGL Mix - Ethane - Propane - Butanes - Pentanes Plus Field Plants Field Plants Marketable Gas Raw Gas Extraction Plant - Ethane - Propane - Butanes - Pentanes Plus Chicago, IL Other Canadian Markets Other Canadian Markets US Markets Alberta Border Crude Oil Fractionation Plants - Ethane - Propane - Butanes - Pentanes Plus Propane Butanes Straddle Plants - NGL Mix - Ethane - Propane - Butanes - Pentanes Plus Oil Pools Refineries Alliance High Pressure Pipeline Gas Pools Gas Pools Sulphur Battery Dry Gas NGL Mix Spec product Rich gas R R R R Point royalties collected Dry or rich gas

Figure 6.4. Ethane supply and demand 10 3 m 3 /d Actual Forecast

Figure 6.5. Propane supply from natural gas and demand 10 3 m 3 /d Actual Forecast * excludes solvent flood volumes

Figure 6.6. Butanes supply from natural gas and demand 10 3 m 3 /d Actual Forecast * excludes solvent flood volumes

Figure 6.7. Pentanes supply from natural gas and demand for diluent 10 3 m 3 /d Actual Forecast * excludes solvent flood volumes demand met by alternative sources and types of diluent

Figure 7.1. Sources of sulphur production Sour gas Refining and upgrading

Figure 7.2. Sulphur production from gas processing plants in Alberta

Figure 7.3. Sulphur production from oil sands

Figure 7.4. Canadian sulphur offshore exports

Figure 7.5. Sulphur demand and supply in Alberta Alberta demand Removed from Alberta Stockpile actualforecast Stockpile Withdrawal Total Demand Production

Figure 8.1 Total coal production Subbituminous Bituminous thermal Bituminous metallurgical

million tonnes actualforecast Figure 8.3 Alberta marketable coal production Subbituminous Thermal bituminous Metallurgical bituminous

actualforecast Figure 9.1. Alberta electricity generating capacity

actualforecast Figure 9.2. Alberta electricity generation

Figure 9.3. Alberta electricity transfers

Figure 9.4. Alberta electricity consumption by sector actualforecast

9.5. Alberta oil sands electricity generation and demand * Industrial – oil sands historical data on electricity demand was estimated using an assumption of 10 kWh/bbl for in situ oil sands projects that do not operate cogeneration units. actualforecast Potential generation Demand