ENERGY (AND) SECURITY Complications and challenges

REMEMBER ‘SOMETHING’ SECURITY? The security of energy itself is an issue: - because we rely on it and our supplies may be interrupted (by accident, nature, or human intent) - because the extraction and use of many energy forms can damage nature and human beings, ie reflexive risks for ‘human security’ The interaction of energy and security is something else - covered later

SOME IMPLICATIONS Good example of ‘reflexive risk’ i.e. our own choices (energy mix, energy efficiency, level of dependence) are the measure of the scale of security probs. The supplier also needs security Other consumers/suppliers can come to be seen as ‘the enemy’

PROBLEMS OF DEPENDENCE Overall world supplies not adequate = zero-sum competition, excessive power to suppliers (primary + secondary aspects) Lack of flexibility in market Over-dependence on one energy type/source High risks attached to certain supplies..

‘EXTERNAL’ RISKS Resources less/different than thought Supplier changes regime,+/or mind Human/natural damage to sources Human/natural damage to means of transit (ships, pipelines) Prices rise (also for ‘illogical’ reasons)

‘INTERNAL’ RISKS Means of distribution inadequate/inap- propriate/leaky Human or natural damage to network Inefficient/inappropriate use of energy Risk of accidents Pollution + other medical or environmental harm

MAPPING RELATIVE RISKS External risks usually greatest for gas and oil - on gas may improve with LNG Coal risk mainly internal, esp pollution Nuclear ‘split personality’ Renewables have least risk so long as produced on own territory Where to put bio-fuels??? Policy must set risks ag. costs (+ habit)

USUAL RANGE OF REMEDIES Increase energy efficiency, decrease dependence (role of pricing) Diversify energy types + suppliers Use more home-made sources Improve safety (inc anti-prolifn. steps) Environmental + climate-related controls Emergency stocks + stock-sharing Long-term pricing agreements (collective bargaining?)

AND ALSO… (Polit/mil/technical) arrangements for safety of sources (Ditto) arrangements for safety/ redundancy/ repair of means of delivery Remarks: - whole range of remedies involve interface with private actors - security measures abroad lead into next agenda…

ENERGY AND SECURITY Bad security affects energy: intra-state conflict and state weakness affects extraction; any armed conflict damages installations and export (aggravates pollution); conflict+terrorism affect delivery; neglect of safety (anywhere) Energy affects security…….

ENERGY-LINKED THREATS War with energy sources (or more rarely, delivery routes) as primary/secondary cause: energy (i) a tool of power, (ii) a tool of war Use of energy supplies (and/or manipulated prices) as a weapon for coercion/domination without use of arms Energy deals as means of ‘empire-building’ + strategic competition

DIFFERENT ENERGY SECURITY PROFILES Typical European Typical producer country China or India Typical smaller developing country

WHAT IS ICELAND’S PROFILE? Over to Gustaf Adolf…

AFTER THE BREAK: 3 ‘THREAT’ SCENARIOS Aim is to disentangle: - Is it really an ‘energy risk’ or a case of energy-and-security links? - How do public policy and private business interact? - What are the best remedies (also thinking of other security dimensions?)

ARCTIC ENERGY EXPLOITATION AND IMPACT FOR ICELAND What issues? What actors? What remedies?

ANOTHER WAR IN THE GULF What issues? What actors? What remedies?

INTRA-STATE WAR IN CENTRAL AFRICA INC. COMPETITION OVER OILFIELDS What issues? What actors? What remedies?