1. Complications and challenges
ENERGY (AND) SECURITY
Complications and challenges

2. REMEMBER ‘SOMETHING’ SECURITY?
The security of energy itself is an issue: because we rely on it and our supplies may be interrupted (by accident, nature, or human intent) because the extraction and use of many energy forms can damage nature and human beings, ie reflexive risks for ‘human security’
The interaction of energy and security is something else - covered later

3. SOME IMPLICATIONS
Good example of ‘reflexive risk’ i.e. our own choices (energy mix, energy efficiency, level of dependence) are the measure of the scale of security probs.
The supplier also needs security
Other consumers/suppliers can come to be seen as ‘the enemy’

4. PROBLEMS OF DEPENDENCE
Overall world supplies not adequate = zero-sum competition, excessive power to suppliers (primary + secondary aspects)
Lack of flexibility in market
Over-dependence on one energy type/source
High risks attached to certain supplies..

5. ‘EXTERNAL’ RISKS Resources less/different than thought
Supplier changes regime,+/or mind
Human/natural damage to sources
Human/natural damage to means of transit (ships, pipelines)
Prices rise (also for ‘illogical’ reasons)

6. ‘INTERNAL’ RISKS Means of distribution inadequate/inap-propriate/leaky
Human or natural damage to network
Inefficient/inappropriate use of energy
Risk of accidents
Pollution + other medical or environmental harm

7. MAPPING RELATIVE RISKS
External risks usually greatest for gas and oil - on gas may improve with LNG
Coal risk mainly internal, esp pollution
Nuclear ‘split personality’
Renewables have least risk so long as produced on own territory
Where to put bio-fuels???
Policy must set risks ag. costs (+ habit)

8. USUAL RANGE OF REMEDIES
Increase energy efficiency, decrease dependence (role of pricing)
Diversify energy types + suppliers
Use more home-made sources
Improve safety (inc anti-prolifn. steps)
Environmental + climate-related controls
Emergency stocks + stock-sharing
Long-term pricing agreements (collective bargaining?)

9. AND ALSO… (Polit/mil/technical) arrangements for safety of sources
(Ditto) arrangements for safety/ redundancy/ repair of means of delivery Remarks: - whole range of remedies involve interface with private actors security measures abroad lead into next agenda…

10. ENERGY AND SECURITY
Bad security affects energy: intra-state conflict and state weakness affects extraction; any armed conflict damages installations and export (aggravates pollution); conflict+terrorism affect delivery; neglect of safety (anywhere)
Energy affects security…….

11. ENERGY-LINKED THREATS
War with energy sources (or more rarely, delivery routes) as primary/secondary cause: energy (i) a tool of power, (ii) a tool of war
Use of energy supplies (and/or manipulated prices) as a weapon for coercion/domination without use of arms
Energy deals as means of ‘empire-building’ + strategic competition

12. DIFFERENT ENERGY SECURITY PROFILES
Typical European
Typical producer country
China or India
Typical smaller developing country

13. WHAT IS ICELAND’S PROFILE?
Over to Gustaf Adolf…

14. AFTER THE BREAK: 3 ‘THREAT’ SCENARIOS
Aim is to disentangle: Is it really an ‘energy risk’ or a case of energy-and-security links? How do public policy and private business interact? What are the best remedies (also thinking of other security dimensions?)

15. ARCTIC ENERGY EXPLOITATION AND IMPACT FOR ICELAND
What issues?
What actors?
What remedies?

16. ANOTHER WAR IN THE GULF
What issues?
What actors?
What remedies?

17. INTRA-STATE WAR IN CENTRAL AFRICA INC. COMPETITION OVER OILFIELDS
What issues?
What actors?
What remedies?