The Energy Challenge and Green Power Professor K.B. Chan Chairman, Hong Kong Electronic Industries Association WEF Shenzhen, China November 15, 2009 Ref No.: SMT-CDV WEF-Rev. 2.0

Contents  The Global problems  The energy challenge  The CO2 issue  What actions to take?  Renewable  100% Green Power?  Conclusion

HKEIA Page 3 The Global Problems 1. Population billion billion + ( ~ 30% increase ) 2. Enough Resources? Quality Resources? LandFood Raw MaterialAir Energy Water 3. Economy GrowthPoverty 4. Environment ClimatePollution Waste

HKEIA Page 4 The Energy Challenge Currently the world consumes total energy of ~ 16 TW ~ 2.4 kW per capita ( T = tera or trillion = 1,000 billion ) By 2030 it will be ~ 23 TW ~ 40% increase due to growth in economy, population Very uneven distribution – kW per capita 2009 USA -10, UK - 5, China – 2, Bangladesh – 0.2

HKEIA Page 5 World’s primary energy supply : 80% - burning fossil fuels 43% oil, 32% coal, 25% natural gas 10%- burning combustible renewables and waste 5%-nuclear 5%-hydro 0.5%-geothermal, solar, wind,...

HKEIA Page 6 % of electrical outputWorldChina Coal41%80% Oil6%2% Gas20%0.5% Nuclear15%0.2% Hydro16%15% Bio & waste1.3%- Geo0.3%- Wind0.7%1.4% Solar*0.02- ~ 11TW, 64% of primary energy Electricity –

HKEIA Page 7 Fossil fuel is running out soon! Energy Timescales Years Remaining Oil40 ~ 50 Natural Gas60 Coal120 ~ 200 If economic & population growth increase faster, the above period will shorten! Source: “Statistical Review of World Energy 2009”, (

HKEIA Page 8 Oil supply Note: discoveries back-dated

HKEIA Page 9 The CO2 issue -Again unbalanced (Tonnes per person/yr) -World - 4.4, USA - 19, UK - 8.6, - China - 4.6, Bangladesh Source: Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2009

HKEIA Page 10 Global warming & Pollution - Forecast  2050, sea level rise 1 meter 10% world populations will lose their homelands  2050 in China, output of crops will down 30% due to water shortage  Premature deaths caused by air pollution in each year:  Globally - 2 million deaths,  China 650,000, India - 530,000, USA - 41,000

HKEIA Page 11 Urgent tasks ahead for the world Reverse global warming Reduce CO2 emission Optimize fossil fuel consumption Develop alternative energy source Transition to 100% sustainable Green power Maintain balanced economic growth Mission impossible???

HKEIA Page 12 What actions to take? 1.Reduce energy use 2. De-carbonization 3. Develop sustainable Green Power 4. Devise economic tools & political will power to make the above happen Questions : 1. Is there a solution at all? 2. Too little & too late?

HKEIA Page 13 Reduce energy use Where used – developed economy Industry~ 25% Transport~ 25% Built/Environment/appliance~ 50% ( private & commercial ) Industry – not much can be done! Could use more for economic growth

HKEIA Page 14 Built/Environment/Appliance Improve in building design can save > 30% Housing stock take 100 years turn over Efficient appliance, heating & cooling Change of lifestyle Investment Lighting ~ 20% of electricity use replace incandescent bulb by LED even 100% cut consumption by 3% Above can help but not enough!

HKEIA Page 15 Transport 900million cars now, 2,100 million in 2030 Almost 100% internal combustion engine, huge consumption of oil & emit CO2 Solution : 1.More efficient engine by 50% just use less oil & less CO2 2. Electric cars – hybrid, plug in battery issue, infrastructure & green electricity 3. Hydrogen car too expensive and no infrastructure Pace of introduction of green cars too slow!

HKEIA Page 16 CO2 target – IEA 450 scenario CO2 rises to 510 ppm 2035 – 2045, then declines very slowly to 450 ppm

HKEIA Page 17 De-carbonization  Neutralization  Our earth has 4 million hectare of Jungle can neutralize 97 billion metric tons of CO 2 per year  The neutralization will saturate in ~ 100 years  However, forest is disappearing fast due to urbanization and over exploit of wood  Action : reduce wood usage find alternative e.g. bamboo re-forest

HKEIA Page 18 De-carbonization CCS – Carbon Capture & Storage As we will still depend on fossil fuel for main electricity generation till 2030 and beyond, another 100 years? Design & build higher efficient power plants Develop and deploy technology to capture and burial of CO2 from power stations and large industrial plants!

HKEIA Page 19 Renewable energy & Green Power 1.Biofuel 2. Hydro & tidal 3. Geothermal 4. Wind 5. Solar 6. Nuclear

HKEIA Page 20 Biofuel 1.Ethanol – 1.1 G1 – Corn, sugar cane Only 2% gain Disrupt food chain 1.2 G2 - cellulose Ready in 2013? Scale up issue 2. Biomass 2.1 Methane lock in permafrost Technology not ready May upset environment ** Both still emit CO2, just less. Use to reduce oil consumption

HKEIA Page 21 Hydro, tidal, geothermal, wind 1. Hydro – most available sites identified 2. Tidal – specific region 3. Geothermal – specific region 4. Wind Mature technology however unstable only 25% efficiency

HKEIA Page 22 Solar 1.Concentrate 2. Photovoltaic Unstable - sun dependent Night time issue Storage issue Both technology are mature Highly scalable Need cost down Government incentive

HKEIA Page 23 Nuclear 1. Fission Good solution Safe but social barrier Uranium last only 80 yrs at current rate Waste treatment Fear of “making the bomb” 2. Fast breeder Small scale & takes 12 years cycle 3. Thorium Experimental 4. Fusion Theoretical best solution but not yet success

HKEIA Page 24 The challenge – 100% Green Power To replace all 11 TW with renewables needs Hydro~1.5 TW Nuclear ~ 1 TW Wind ~ 3.5 TW Solar ~ 2.5 TW Concentrate 2.5 TW Photovoltaic

HKEIA Page 25 We need to build - minimum 300 more hydro 1 GW 1,000 nuclear power 1 GW 700,000 large wind 5 mW 8,300 solar 300mW 8,300 solar 300mW Efficiency not taking into account! Other Issues : Investment? Time required? Trigger other environmental issues? Engineering man power?

HKEIA Page 26 The material hurdle The world does not have enough critical raw materials to build them Silver Lithium Indium Tellurium Platinum Rare earth elements

HKEIA Page 27 Possible scenario - IEA

HKEIA Page 28 The conclusion 1 Huge increase in energy demand and growing Global warming is real and imminent, due to CO2 Fossil fuels will still be used for quite a long time The reserve can be stretched and CO2 reduced by Reduction in consumption De-carbonization Efficient power plants Efficient appliance, building, cars Change in lifestyle

HKEIA Page 29 The conclusion 2 Big challenge in developing & deploying environmental friendly technology All formats are needed, main ones are hydro, wind, solar, nuclear Many hurdles to overcome Huge R&D effort Huge investment & long build up time Global effort Political will power is the final key!

The electronic industry is deeply involved in all aspects. We are part of the solution as well as part of the problem! Action is Now! Do not wait for Copenhagen