2 8. Population and Development World population growth, , was 1.6% yearly, increasing the population from 4.4 billion to 6.5 billion. LDC population growth during the same period was 2% yearly.

3 Major topics  Rapid but decelerating growth in LDCs  Demographic transition, death rates (DRs), & birth rates (BRs)  Malthusians vs. optimists on balance between population & economic growth  Food-population balance  Is population growth an obstacle to economic growth?  Population pyramids  Reducing fertility

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5 Population growth in DCs & LDCs DCs & transitional economies < 0.8% p.a. Some E & SE Asian & Latin American economies % p.a. Most LDCs, especially sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia & Central America >1.8% p.a.

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8 World Population Growth by Region  Africa projected 2.4% yearly growth (38 BR & 14 DR)  Latin America % yearly growth  Asia % yearly growth

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10 World Population Growth Rate Decelerating 1960 to 2005 Growth 2.3% yearly at peak in Growth 1.3% Expected growth 0.8% in See Figure 8-4.

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12 What is the demographic transition?

13 Demographic Transition Period of rapid population growth between preindustrial stable population (high BR & DR) and later modern stable population (low BR & DR) DR falls faster than BR, giving rise to population explosion

14 Western & non-Western patterns After 1650, Western countries increased population more rapidly & steadily population growth rate declined Except for China & Japan, non-Western countries did not experience population growth until after 1930

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16 Stage 1: high fertility & mortality Most of humankind’s history Lack of modern sanitation, medicine, industry, agriculture, trade, transport & communication. Self-sufficiency means food shortages disastrous Fertility must match morality for populations to survive Large families a blessing from God

17 Stage 2: declining mortality Agricultural production increased – improved trade, transport, & communication Death from infectious diseases declined Nutrition improved Patterns differ between early DCs & LDCs

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20 Table 8-2 Life expectancy at birth Africa’s fall in life expectancy from the 1990s to the first decade of the 21 st century is an anomaly among LDCs How do you explain this anomaly?

21 How do you explain Africa’s fall in life expectancy? Deaths from the HIV/AIDS epidemic.

22 Stage 3: Declining Fertility Family planning programs World’s total fertility rate –the number of children born to the average woman during her reproductive years – 1968 (4.6), 1975 (4.1), 1987 (3.6), 1995 (3.1), 2003 (2.8)

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24 Stage 4: Stationary population (low DR & BR) Sweden, Austria, Germany, Denmark, Belgium, Britain, Greece, Italy, Spain, Russia, Ukraine, & Bulgaria.

25 Is Population Growth an Obstacle to Economic Development (Malthus vs. Simon) Malthusian view: population increases geometrically – 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, etc., outstripping food supply, increasing arithmetically – 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. Simon: more people increase the stock of knowledge through additional learning gains, compounded by the quickening effect of greater competition and total demand spurring “necessity as the mother for invention.” Division of labor & economies of large-scale production increase as markets expand. Recommends laissez-faire population policy.

26 Does this just reflect a shift from consumption of grain to other foods as income increases?

27 UN Development Program (2003:87)  If all the food produced worldwide were distributed equally, every person would be able to consume 2,760 calories a day (hunger is defined as consuming fewer than 1,960 calories a day)...  Hunger is more than just a lack of available food. It is a problem of deficiencies in food entitlement and deprivations in related essential services (health care, education, safe drinking water, adequate sanitation).

28 Energy limitations Substantial gains made in food productivity during the late 20 th century were partly dependent on cheap, abundant energy. Will higher real energy prices reduce further gains in food productivity?

29 What other costs are there to high fertility & rapid population growth other than diminishing returns to land? Urbanization & congestion Rapid labor force growth & increasing unemployment (Ch. 9) Higher dependency ratios – ratio of nonworking population to working-age population (see next two slides)

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32 Econometric studies (p. 296) High fertility & rapid population growth hinder growth of GNP per capita.  Barro (1997) – increased resources devoted to child rearing instead of production contribute to negative relationship between population growth rate & GNP per capita.

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34 Previous slide (from p. 302) Poor people, poorly educated people, rural people, and those in agriculture have higher birth rates than others

35 Population & development Bucharest conference – “Development is the best contraceptive” Crucial role of education & labor force participation of women

36 Strategies for reducing fertility Birth control programs Socioeconomic development (see next slide) Development or family planning? - Both are essential to reduce fertility rates