ECMWF Forecasting System - Overview

Background/Establishment 1969Expert group in meteorology propose ‘European Meteorological Computing Centre’ 1975ECMWF convention in force 1978Headquarters building completed Start of operational activities 1978Installation of first computer system (CRAY 1-A) 1983T63 (320 km) / L16 spectral model 1991T213 (95 km) / L31 spectral model 1993Ensemble prediction system 1996Fujitsu VPP300-C and VPP D-Var data assimilation 2000Fujitsu VPP 5000/100, T511/L60 model 2001Web site enhanced: RMDCN extended to 33 States: 2002IBM p690 HPCF and new Data Handling System installed 2006T799 (25 km) 2010T1279 (16 km) 2010 New convention has been entered into force ECMWF Forecasting System - Overview

BelgiumIrelandPortugal DenmarkItaly Switzerland GermanyLuxembourg Finland SpainThe Netherlands Sweden FranceNorwayTurkey GreeceAustria United Kingdom Co-operation agreements or working arrangements with: Czech Republic Lithuania ACMAD Croatia MontenegroESA Estonia MoroccoEUMETSAT Hungary RomaniaWMO IcelandSerbiaJRC IsraelSlovakiaCTBTO LatviaSlovenia CLRTAP ECMWF Forecasting System - Overview

Operational forecasting up to 15 days ahead (including ocean waves) R & D activities in forecast modelling Data archiving and related services Operational forecasts for the coming month and season Advanced NWP training Provision of supercomputer resources Assistance to WMO programmes Management of Regional Meteorological Data Communications Network (RMDCN) Main Objectives

COUNCIL 18 Member States Organisation of ECMWF DIRECTOR-General Prof. Alan Thorpe UK Meteorological Division Computer Division Operations Research Administration Data Division Data Division Model Division Probabilistic Forecasting and Diagnostics Division Probabilistic Forecasting and Diagnostics Division Finance Committee 7 Members Finance Committee 7 Members Technical Advisory Committee 18 Members Technical Advisory Committee 18 Members Scientific Advisory Committee 12 Members Scientific Advisory Committee 12 Members Policy Advisory Committee 7-18 Members Policy Advisory Committee 7-18 Members Advisory Committee of Co-operating States 12 Members Advisory Committee of Co-operating States 12 Members Advisory Committee on Data Policy 8-31 Members Advisory Committee on Data Policy 8-31 Members

Germany 20.20% Denmark 1.87% Belgium 2.71% United Kingdom 16.43% Turkey 2.38% Sweden 2.66% Finland 1.42% Switzerland 2.89% Portugal 1.29% Austria 2.16% Norway 2.13% Netherlands 4.61% Italy 12.66% Ireland 1.23% Greece 1.74% France 15.46% Spain 7.95% Main Revenue 2010 Member States’ contributions£36,703,200 Co-operating States’ contributions £861,600 Other Revenue£1,275,000 Total £38,839,800 GNI Scale 2009–2011 Luxembourg 0.23% Main Expenditure 2010 Staff£15,199,900 Leaving Allowances & Pensions£3,298,600 Computer Expenditure£15,809,000 Buildings£3,647,700 Supplies£884,600 Total£38,839,800 Budget

ECMWF Forecasting System - Overview ECMWF is world leading centre in medium range forecasting

Atmosphere global forecasts Forecast to ten days from 00 and 12 UTC at 16 km resolution and 91 levels 50 ensemble forecasts to fifteen days from 00 and 12 UTC at 50 km resolution Ocean wave forecasts Global forecast to ten days from 00 and 12 UTC at 28 km resolution European waters forecast to five days from 00 and 12 UTC at 11 km resolution 51-member ensemble prediction system To day 15 from 00 and 12 UTC (to day 32 on Thursdays at 00 UTC) 32 km resolution up to day 10, then 65 km 62 vertical levels 12 UTC with persisted SST up to day 15, 00 UTC with persisted SST up to day 10 and then coupled ocean model Coupled ocean has horizontally varying resolution (⅓ to 1°), 9 vertical levels. Coupled wave model Seasonal forecasts: Atmosphere-ocean coupled model Global forecasts to seven months: atmosphere: 1.125° resolution, 62 levels ocean: horizontally-varying resolution (⅓° to 1°), 29 levels ECMWF Forecast Products

Reanalyses (ERA-15, ERA-40, ERA-Interim) Boundary conditions for Limited Area Models (LAM) Data Services – Provision of real-time data – Provision of archived data and products – Provision of software ECMWF Forecasting System - Overview

Training Courses –Numerical methods –Data assimilation & use of satellite data –Parametrization of diabatic processes –Predictability, diagnostics and long-range forecasting –Use and interpretation of ECMWF products –Computer user training courses Seminars –Research Seminars (annually) –Meteorological Operational Systems (biennial) –Large-scale Computing (biennial) Workshops ECMWF Forecasting System - Overview

Current computer configuration June 2010 ECMWF Forecasting System - Overview

RMDCN

RMDCN Connections RMDCN Global Coverage (March 2010) ECMWF Forecasting System - Overview

Z500,N.Hem, T+72

ECMWF Forecasting System - Overview Verification of TC predictions from the operational deterministic forecast for 12- month periods ending on 14 July. The latest period, 15 July 2008 to 14 July 2009, is shown in red. Within each year, the sample size is the same at each forecast step (but the number of cyclones varies from year to year).

ECMWF Products – for NMHSs of WMO members Services Conventional GTS, ftp data downloads, WEB plots, EUMETCast Data resolution 0.5 ° × 0.5 ° global, (tropic belt for vorticity and divergence parameter) “Essential” Products MSL pressure 850 hPa temperature and winds 500 hPa geopotential height EPS mean and standard deviation of all above parameters Validity: Analysis, 24, 48, 72, 96, 120, 144, 168, 192, 216, 240 hour forecasts Frequency Twice per day, based on 00 and 12 UTC data Format WMO FM92-Ext GRIB edition 2

ECMWF Products – for NMHSs of WMO members “Additional” Products 700, 500, 200 hPa winds 850, 700 hPa Relative Humidity 700 hPa vorticity and divergence Significant wave height, wave mean period, wave mean direction EPS event probabilities total precipitation >10/20 mm, 10m wind gusts >15/25m/s, significant wave height > 2/4/6/8m Seasonal System sea surface temperature anomalies Tropical Cyclone Tracks (WMO FM-92 BUFR) Products only available as WEB Products Extreme Forecast Indices EPSgrams (site specific forecasts of near surface weather parameters up to 10 days)

Data sources for the ECMWF Meteorological Operational System (EMOS)

Satellite data used by ECMWF

Operational model levels (91-level model) ECMWF Forecasting System - Overview

Operational model grid ECMWF Forecasting System - Overview

Model grids for T799 (25 km) and T1279 (16 km) ECMWF Forecasting System - Overview

The observations are used to correct errors in the short forecast from the previous analysis time. Every twelve hours we process 6 – 10,000,000 observations to correct the 80,000,000 numbers that define the model’s virtual atmosphere. This is done by a careful 4-dimensional interpolation in space and time of the available observations; this operation takes as much computer power as the 10-day forecast. Starting Forecasts

ECMWF Forecasting System - Overview Importance of observations(Analysis) for medium range forecast

Data assimilation THE FORECAST is continuously compared against a variety of meteorological measurements. If we imagine the whole world encapsulated by a grid, the grid points are the locations where the forecast is computed. The meteorological measurements can be taken in any location in the grid. A short-range forecast (blue ‘F’) provides an estimate of the atmosphere that can be compared with the measurements (yellow crosses). The two kinds of information are combined to form a corrected representation of the atmosphere (green ticks). Corrections are computed and applied twice per day. This automatic process is called ‘Data Assimilation’.

ECMWF Forecasting System - Overview Thanks for your attention…