1. SWFDP in the Antilles (RA IV)
METEO-FRANCE / ECMWF
NWP capacities
RSMT meeting, Martinique December 2016
Jean-Noel DEGRACE / Thierry DUPONT Météo-France Antilles-Guyane 1 1

2. Plan Atmospheric models Global Deterministic models
Ensemble Prediction System
Regional deterministic models
Wave models
Regional deterministics 2 2

3. Global and deterministic atmospheric model
ARPEGE (Meteo-France)
Characteristics
Global model with a 4DVar assimilation scheme
105 pressure level, from 10m à 0,1 hPa
Troncature T1198, centered over continental France with a stretch factor of 2,2
Horizontal resolution : Approx. 7,5km over France, 15km in the Caribbean, 36km over the antipodes (New-Zealand)
Display : Grid 0,1° ( approx. 11 km) on the ATOURX01 Domain (10S/100W/80N/100E) from 00 to 72h term with 3h step
4 runs per day 3 3

4. Global and deterministic atmospheric model
IFS (ECMWF)
Characteristics
Global model with 4DVar assimilation scheme
137 levels
- Troncature TCo1279 (cubic troncature)
 Horizontal resolution about 9 km all over the globe (since march 2016)
4 runs per day, 00UTC, 06UTC, 12UTC et 18UTC
Display grids
0.5° resoultion (56 km near equator): Up to term of 240h, step 3,6 ou 12h depending on parameter
0,25° resolution (28 km near equator): Step 3h up to term of 120h, step 6h up to term of 240h
0,125° resolution (14 km near equator): Step 3h up to term of 144h, step 6h up to term of 240h
Comments
New Simulated Satellite Data (SSD)
(since 8 march 2016) 4 4

5. Global and probabilistic atmospheric model
EPS : Ensemble Prediction System (ECMWF)
Characteristics
2 runs / jour (00UTC et 12UTC) disponibles à environ H+10h20,
Résolution spatiale : depuis mars 2016, point de grille de 18km jusqu'à J15 et 36km jusque J46 (échéance mensuelle, 2x par semaine).
62 niveaux.
50 perturbed members by complex processes and 1 non-perturbed control member.
Dedicated tropical perturbations (wet targetted vectors over Caraibes and Tropical Cyclone Targetted vectors,)
Specific products
For « severe weather » …… and/or Tropical Cyclones 5 5

6. Global and probabilistic atmospheric model
ECMWF-EPS : Examples of Specific products
EPSGramms : 6 6

7. Global and probabilistic atmospheric model
ECMWF-EPS : Examples of Specific products
EPS thresholded maps :
5, 10 or 20 mm per day
EPS Extreme Forecast Index :
Wind or Rainfall 7 7

8. Global and probabilistic atmospheric model
ECMWF-EPS : Examples of Specific products
For « severe weather » …… and/or Tropical Cyclones
TC ensemble track :
Spaghettis :
4 thresholds of MSLP (1000, 1004, 1008, 1012) 8 8

9. Regional and deterministic atmospheric model
AROME (Meteo-France)
High-Resolution (2,5km) , Non-Hydrostatic Model (convection explicit resolution)
Forced by IFS
4 runs per day : 00Z et 12Z up to 36h, 06Z and 18Z up to 42h
Step : 1h
Comments
- Available at H + 7h30 (a bit late for nowcating …but still usefull !)
- Domain will be soon extended for the SWFDP Antilles
- Forcing by 1D ocean model is planed to be implemented next year 9 9

10. Global and deterministic wave model
MFW-ARPEGE (Meteo-France)
Characteristics
French global wave model coupled with ARPEGE
0.5° resolution (56 km near equator)
Comments
(paramètres spécifiques, qualités/défauts, nouveautés, …)
Run
00Z
06Z
12Z
18Z
Term
102h
72h
114h
60h
Step 3h
Avalability
0400UTC
1045UTC
1535UTC
2240UTC 10 10

11. Global and deterministic wave model
MFWAM-IFS (Meteo-France / ECMWF)
Characteristics
French global wave model coupled with IFS
0.5° resolution (56 km near equator)
Comments
Run
00Z
06Z
12Z
18Z
Term
120h
84h
Step 3h
Avalability
0750UTC
1240UTC
1950UTC
0040UTC 11 11

12. Global and probabilistic wave model
PEPS-WAM (ECMWF)
Characteristics
EPS Ensemble-based
Domain : 0-360E fom 69S up to 75N
0.5° resolution (56 km near equator)
Specific products
 EPSgrammes, etc.
Comments
Probabilities H1/3 + Houles > (2m ; 4m ; 6m ; 8m)
Probabilites T > (8s ; 10s ; 12s ; 15s).
Run
00Z
06Z
12Z
18Z
Term
240h
Step
12h
Avalability
0915UTC
N/A
2115UTC 12 12

13. Regional and deterministic wave model
AROME-MFWAM (Meteo-France / ECMWF)
Characteristics
Grid 0,1° ( approx. 11 km)
Comments
(paramètres spécifiques, qualités/défauts, nouveautés, …)
Run
00Z
06Z
12Z
18Z
Term
36h
42h
Step 3h
Avalability
0745UTC
1330UTC
1945UTC
0130UTC 13 13

14. Regional and deterministic wave model
Upgrade to a new High Resolution Wave Model for Caraibles
Characteristics
Characterics depend on the domain, from 10km on the boundary to 200m near the lesser Antilles.
Green domain : MFWAM-IFS 0,1°
Purple domain : AROME-MFWAM
(will be extend to the new Arome domain)
Red domain : AROME+WaveWatch3
WaveWatch3, same physic than MFWAM
but able to represent coastal phenomena
(wave surges, refractive effects,
bottom of the sea friction's effects) 14 14

15. THANK YOU VERY MUCH / MUCHAS GRACIAS MESI ANPIL / MERCI BEAUCOUP ! ! !
Jean-Noel DEGRACE Météo-France Antilles-Guyane 15