Cereals and Other Starch Based Staples: are consumption patterns changing? S. 1 Joint Meeting of the 30th Session of the Intergovernmental Group on Grains and the 41st Session of the Intergovernmental Group on Rice Rome February 2004 CCP: GR-RI 04/CRS.5 Cereals and Other Starch Based Staples: are consumption patterns changing?

S. 2 Introduction, Data and Methods Changes in dietary structures Importance of Cereals, Roots and Tubers, Bananas and Plantains (CRBP) in daily diets Convergence and diversification in global CRBP consumption patterns The main forces driving change Policy Implications O U T L I N E

Cereals and Other Starch Based Staples: are consumption patterns changing? S. 3 Comparison of Dietary Structures in Developed …

Cereals and Other Starch Based Staples: are consumption patterns changing? S and Developing Countries - Structures diverse, but for both groups strong growth in oils and livestock products …however, CRBP foods in decline

Cereals and Other Starch Based Staples: are consumption patterns changing? S. 5 Variation in Dietary Patterns - Consumption patterns in South and East Asian countries most variable. Least variable in developed countries – saturation?

Cereals and Other Starch Based Staples: are consumption patterns changing? S. 6 Relationship Between Dietary Shares and Total Calorie Intake - A 1% increase in calorie intake results in falls in dietary shares of CRBP (-0.74%) and pulses (-0.55)

Cereals and Other Starch Based Staples: are consumption patterns changing? S. 7 Calorie Intake & Dietary Shares of CRBP staples in Developing Countries - Since the 1970s CRBP shares in developing countries have fallen rapidly…

Cereals and Other Starch Based Staples: are consumption patterns changing? S. 8 Calorie Intake & Dietary Shares of CRBP staples in Developed Countries - …but remain well above developed country shares which have stabilized

Cereals and Other Starch Based Staples: are consumption patterns changing? S. 9 Declines in Total Dietary Shares of CRBP Foods: 5% or more - CRBP staples remain important food security crops, especially Africa

Cereals and Other Starch Based Staples: are consumption patterns changing? S. 10 Declines in Total Dietary Shares of CRBP Foods: 10% or more Have dietary shares of all CRBP products fallen?

Cereals and Other Starch Based Staples: are consumption patterns changing? S. 11 Increases in Wheat Shares: 5% or more ( ) Wheat consumption has increased in many developing countries

Cereals and Other Starch Based Staples: are consumption patterns changing? S. 12 Increases in Rice Shares: 5% or more ( ) Growth in rice consumption less pronounced and more regionally concentrated, esp. West Africa, Latin America, SE Asia

Cereals and Other Starch Based Staples: are consumption patterns changing? S. 13 CRBP Structures: 1961/63 In the past, structures dominated by single CRBP foodstuffs – 6 distinct structures identified

Cereals and Other Starch Based Staples: are consumption patterns changing? S. 14 CRBP Structures : 1999/2001 Now, structures diversified: dominated by wheat and rice. Evidence of convergence: 4 distinct structures identified. Handful of countries unchanged since 1961

Cereals and Other Starch Based Staples: are consumption patterns changing? S. 15 Factors Driving CRBP Patterns URBANIZATION INCOME IMPORTS x PREFERENCE SHIFTS ( ) RELATIVE PRICES ??

Cereals and Other Starch Based Staples: are consumption patterns changing? S. 16 POLICY IMPLICATIONS According to UN estimates, the world’s urban population is expected to increase by 70 percent over the next three decades:  Promote production of wheat and rice or accept increasing reliance on imports?  Promote processing of those CRBP products that have witnessed falling demand?