1. Trends in African Agricultural Trade
Ousmane Badiane, Director for Africa
Brussels Policy Briefings No. 47
Regional Trade in Africa: Drivers, Trends and Opportunities
Brussels, February 3, 2017

2. Trends in African Agricultural Trade
Outline
Composition and Direction of African Agricultural Trade
Changing nature of African Agricultural Trade Balance
Competitiveness in Global and Regional Markets
Intra-African Trade: Trends and Outlook – The case of ECOWAS
Source: African Agricultural Trade Status Report (2017)
Unless otherwise specified, graphs are based on data from Base pour le commerce international (BACI), Centre d’Etudes Prospectives et d’Information Internationales (CEPII).

3. Change in African Trade Composition - EXPORTS
Traditional commodities continue to dominate African Exports
Coffee and cotton have lost ground
Cocoa remains dominant export
Citrus fruits and oilseeds have moved up
Share of Top 10 Ag. Exports (value)
Share of Top 10 Ag Exports (value)

4. Change in African Trade Composition - IMPORTS
Wheat is by far the largest import
Rice has gained significant shares and now ranks second
Palm oil has made the largest gains; now ranks 4th, closely behind sugar
Meat has made its entry recently
Share of Top 10 Ag. Imports (value)
Share of Top 10 Ag Imports (value)

5. Direction of Agricultural Trade by African Countries
African countries are destination of 20% of African exports
15% of imports originate from other African countries
EU is the largest trading partners for both exports and imports
Asia is a close second
Americas play a more significant role as a source of imports
Exports
Imports

6. Direction of Agricultural Trade by African Countries
EU has been losing market shares rather rapidly
Asia has gained shares and is now close to EU
African countries are also gaining shares, particular for exports
America’s shares have remained unchanged
Exports
Imports

7. of Africa in Global Markets and Agriculture in African Exports
Evolution of the Role
of Africa in Global Markets and Agriculture in African Exports
Share of Africa in global Agricultural Markets within 3-4% range
Share of agriculture in African Exports fell by 50% in last 15 years
African Share in Global Agricultural Exports
Share of agriculture in Total African exports
Source: Unless otherwise specified, graphs are based on data from Base pour le commerce international (BACI), Centre d’Etudes Prospectdives et d’Information Internationales (CEPII).

8. African Agricultural Trade Balance
African exports have increased more than 3 times
But imports rose nearly 5 times
Import gap started to widen in early 2000s
Import gap is now around 20% of total value of trade
Total agricultural exports, current US$B
Normalized Agricultural Trade Balance

9. Regional Dimension of Trade Imbalance
ECCAS has experienced rapid deterioration
Same with SADC which moved form net exporter to net importer
ECOWAS has the lowest gap, but also turned net importer
All regions have lost their next exporting position around 10 years ago

10. Main Commodities Contributing to Agricultural Imports Gap
Wheat is a major import from all regions
It is followed by milk products in Europe
Rice & Palm oil are the main net imports from Asia
Sugar and maize from Americas
wheat milk cream
rice
palm oil wheat
sugar maize wheat

11. Why the Growing Trade Gap Despite Rising African Production and Exports
Agricultural production collapsed in the 1970s-1980s
But population continued to grow
Unmet demand continued to pile up
Rising incomes in post 2000s accelerate demand
Agriculture grows again but rates cannot keep up with demand
Source: Badiane et al (2016).

12. Average Change in Export Competitiveness: 1998-2013
Africa lost competitiveness in global markets but gained in regional markets
ECOWAS increased competitiveness the most in global markets
COMESA gained competitiveness the most in regional markets
Global markets
Regional Markets
Value > 1 means increase in competitiveness

13. Country Competitiveness in Global Markets: 1998-2013
Around 40 percent of all countries have become more competitive
About 50% have seen no major changes
10 percent have become less competitive
Value > 1 means increase in competitiveness

14. Commodity Competitiveness in Global Markets: 1998-2013
Competitiveness increased for 75% of export commodities
Little change / modest loss of competitiveness for 25% of commodities
Value > 1 means increase in competitiveness

15. Key Determinants of Trade Performance
Land productivity
Public ag. expenditure to ag. GDP ration of exporter
Efficiency of customs clearing index
Quality of port
Exporting countries’ GDP
Importing countries’ GDP
Road density

16. Evolution of Intra-African Trade
The share of intra-African trade has increased sharply since 2000
But the level is still a fraction of what is observed in other regions

17. Growth in Intra-regional Trade (Value)
Intra-trade has grown by an average of between 10 and 15%
Growth has accelerated over time for ECOWAS and SADC
It has fallen drastically in ECCAS

18. Trends in Intra-regional trade in West Africa (US$Mill.)
Live animals
87.7
155.6
95.7
Fish & animal products
165.7
348.4
439.2
Vegetables
27.3
28.1
133.7
Cereals
30.1
81.5
64.5
Oilseeds
16.8
17.8
31.8
Edible oils
75.8
137.4
307.3
Other food crops
20.6
28.5
54.8
All staple food products
424.1
797.3
1127.0

19. Projected Increase in Intra-regional Trade Based on Current Trends
With current growth rates in yields, area, population and incomes:
Regional trade is expected to increase significantly, except for cereals
Most growth in cereals demand is captured by rice imports from outside

20. Cross-border Trade Obstacles in West Africa

21. Selected Interventions to Further Boost Regional Trade
Local cereals / roots & tubers gain the most from yield increases and trade reforms
Removal of cross border trade harassment would have the most effect on trade
Reduction in overall trade costs is good for both extra and intra-regional trade

22. Thank you!