1. The State of Food and Agriculture 2004 FAO Council Hundred and Twenty-seventh Session 22-27 November 2004

2. 2 The world is not on track in the fight against hunger … Millions Point estimates prepared in 2003 Target Millions 900 800 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 1000 196519701975198019851990199520002005201020152020 Latest available point estimates Undernourished People in Developing Countries 1999 – 2001 798 million

3. 3 Change in numbers of undernourished in developing countries from 1990-92 to 1999-2001

4. 4 Reduction Change in numbers of undernourished in developing countries from 1990-92 to 1999-2001

5. 5 Reduction Increase Change in numbers of undernourished in developing countries from 1990-92 to 1999-2001

6. 6 Progress and setback Change in numbers of undernourished in developing countries from 1990-92 to 1999-2001 (millions) 0 20 40 60 80 100 IncreaseReduction + 76 - 95 China Decrease of 58 million - 37

7. 7 Food emergency hotspots Major armed conflict (Oct 2004) Hunger hotspots in 2004

8. 8 World agricultural production increased in 2003 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 1990-2000200120022003 Agriculture Crops Livestock % Average annual growth

9. 9 Production in developing countries outpaces developed countries 0 1 2 3 4 1990-2000200120022003 Developed countries Developing countries % Average annual growth in agricultural production

10. 10 Cereal production meets utilization 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 90/9192/9394/9596/9798/9900/0102/0304/05** Production Utilization Million tonnes **: Forecast

11. 11 As cereal stocks fall, prices rise Cereal price index Index 1990-92 = 100 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 919293949596979899000102030405* Stock to utilization ratio (%) 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 *: Forecast

12. 12 Commodity prices have recovered 80 100 120 140 160 909192939495969798990001020304* Meat Cereals Oils Foodstuffs Index 1990-92 = 100 *: 10-month average

13. 13 Global agricultural exports resume growth trend Agricultural exports 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 62 6466687072747678808284868890929496980002 Billion US$

14. 14 Supermarkets are growing rapidly in developing countries Source: Reardon et al. Supermarket share of retail food sales % 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 South America East Asia (excl. China) Central Europe South Africa China (urban) Guatemala* 19922002 *: 1995 and 2002

15. 15 Trade integration can support food security Countries by % population undernourished Ag imports + Ag exports / Ag GDP 051015202530354045505560 <2.5% 2.5-4% 5-19% 20-34% >34%

16. 16 Dependence on agriculture is greater in those countries where hunger is most prevalent % of population who depend on agriculture for their livelihood 010203040506070 <2.5% 2.5 - 4% 5 - 19% 20 - 34% >= 35% Countries by % population undernourished

17. 17 Investment in agriculture lags where hunger is most prevalent 020004000600080001000012000 <2.5% 2.5 - 4% 5 - 19% 20 - 34% >= 35% 1976 - 1980 1996 - 2001 Capital stock per agricultural worker (constant 1995 US$) Countries by % population undernourished

18. 18 Public expenditure fails to reflect the importance of agriculture 0.00.10.20.30.40.5 <2.5% 2.5 - 4% 5 - 19% 20 - 34% >= 35% 1990-92 average 1996-98 * Agricultural orientation index *: or most recent Countries by % population undernourished

19. 19 Development assistance does not target the neediest countries 05101520253035 <2.5% 2.5 - 4% 5 - 19% 20 - 34% >= 35% 1999-2001 External assistance to agriculture (constant 1995 US$ per agricultural worker) Countries by % population undernourished

20. 20 Conclusions Agricultural production is growing strongly in developing countries Recent commodity price increases reversing Progress in fighting hunger continues in many countries, but others are falling behind Investment in agriculture effective in reducing hunger But these investments are not being made in the neediest countries

22. 22 Development assistance does not target the neediest countries 05101520253035 <2.5% 2.5 - 4% 5 - 19% 20 - 34% >= 35% 1990-92 1999-2001 External assistance to agriculture, concessional and non-concessional (constant 1995 US$ per agricultural worker) % of population undernourished

23. 23 Natural disasters like desert locusts still take a huge toll Latest situation (15 Oct 2004) Swarms Hoppper bands

24. 24 World agricultural production increased in 2003 % Average annual growth 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 1990-2000200120022003 Agriculture Crops Livestock

25. 25 Cereal stocks remain level 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 919293949596979899000102030405** 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Rest of the world China Ratio Million tonnes%

26. 26 Cereal consumption in developing countries is declining 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 197072747678808284868890929496980002 % Share of cereals in total consumption in developing countries

27. 27 Development assistance is not growing Latin America and Caribbean Africa Asia Transition countries Others 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 199619971998199920002001* Commitments of external assistance to agriculture by main recipient regions (at constant 2000 billion US$)

28. 28 Undernourishment has a huge cost in human terms 40 0 % of the population undernourished 160 120 80 < 2.5 2.5 - 4 5 - 19 20 - 34 => 35 Under five mortality (per 1 000)