Climate Change and India Sumana Bhattacharya NATCOM PMC Winrock International India International Workshop on Future International Climate Policy August 9, 2006, University of Sao Paulo, Brazil

Climate Change and India The setting Climate change Actions Institutional Arrangement Major Climate Change Activities Adaptation and Development

The Setting Occupies 2.4% (3.28 million sq. km of the worlds land area but support 16.2% (more than 1 billion) of the worlds human population Diverse physiographic features - Himalayas, Coastal areas, northern plains, peninsular plateau and islands Dominating feature of climate is the Monsoon Endowed with varied climate, biodiversity and ecological regions (Forest Cover about 675.5 thousand sq km 2/3 rd population dependent on climate sensitive sectors Poverty ratio at national poverty line ~ 28.6 % of total population Agricultural land ~ 60.8% of total land area CO2 emissions ~ 1. 2 t per capita Energy use~ 508.8 kg of oil equivalent per capita GDP (current US$) ~ 691.2 billion GDP growth : 7% annually (average) Diverse natural conditions, high population, limited and degraded natural resources

Climate Change Action Air pollution Act Act 1981, amended 1987 Environmental protection Act 1986, amended 1991 Forest Conservation Act 1980, amended 1988 NATCOM-1 submitted to UNFCCC 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Establishment of Ozone Cell in MoEF Electricity Act Energy Conservation Act Ratifies Kyoto Protocol India ratifies UNFCCC India ratifies Vienna Convention India acceded to Montreal Protocol Establishment of Ministry of Non Conventional Energy Sources

Institutional structure for climate change action in India Ministry of Environment & Forests DNA Joint Secretary, GEF Focal Point Joint Secretary, Climate Change Focal Point Advisor, MoEF Implementing Agency for the GEF CDM Climate change activities and policy measures India’s National Communication to the UNFCCC Project proponent for funding through GEF Other communications and submissions to the UNFCCC Network of institutes

Clean Development Mechanism DNA 2004 Secretary, MoEF Ministries of: Foreign Affairs Finance Industrial Policy & Promotion Non-Conventional Energy Sources Power Planning Commission and Environment & Forests

Registered Projects in UNFCCC - 256

Country wise CERs (total :72.72 million tCO2/yr)

Total projects approved by DNA

Institutional Arrangement - NATCOM Ministry of Environment and Forests Chair : Secretary, MoEF Technical Assessment Committee National Steering Committee Inventory V&A Uncertainty Reduction

GHG Emissions from Sources and Removals by Sinks - India 1994

Relative GHG Emissions Gas by Gas emission distribution

Sectoral Distribution of GHG emissions Emissions in terms of CO2 equivalent

Vulnerability Assessment & Adaptation Climate projection scenarios (RCM, HadCM2) National Impact Assessment Studies on: - Water Resources - Agriculture - Forests & other Natural Ecosystems - Coastal Zones - Human health - Energy and Infrastructure www.natcomindia.org

Climate Projections Av. Surface temperature: increase by 2 - 4°C during 2050s Monsoon Rainfall: Marginal changes in monsoon months (JJAS) : Large changes during non-monsoon months No. of rainy days: set to decrease by more than 15 days Intensity of rains : to increase by 1-4 mm/day Cyclonic storms: Increase in frequency and intensity of cyclonic storms is projected

Key Vulnerable River Basins Acute physical water scarce conditions Constant water scarcities and shortage Seasonal / regular water stressed conditions Rare water shortages

Agriculture Decrease in yield of crops as temperature increases in different parts of India - For example a a 2°C increase in mean air temperature, rice yields could decrease by about 0.75 ton/hectare in the high yield areas and by about 0.06 ton/hectare in the low yield coastal regions. Major impacts of climate change will be on rain fed crops (other than rice and wheat), which account for nearly 60% of cropland area. In India poorest farmers practice rain fed agriculture. The loss in farm-level net revenue will range between 9 and 25% for a temperature rise of 2-3.5°C.

Coastal Zones Simulation models show an increase in frequencies of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal particularly intense events are projected during the post-monsoon period Sea level rise is projected to displace populations in coastal zones, increase flooding in low-lying coastal areas, loss of crop yields from inundation and salinization. 7500 km coast line Vulnerable areas along the Indian Coast due to SLR

Simulated Forestry 77% and 68% of the forested grids in India are likely to experience shift in forest types Indications show a shift towards wetter forest types in the northeastern region and drier forest types in the northwestern region in the absence of human influence. Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate warming could also result in a 50 to 70% increase under the B2 scenario Projected Dry savannah Xeric Shrub land Xeric woodland Tropical Seasonal Forest Boreal Evergreen Tundra

Health Malaria is likely to persist in many states and new regions at hogher latitudes may become malaria-prone The duration of the malaria transmission windows is likely to widen in northern and western states and shorten in southern states. Regions likely to be affected by malaria in 2050s Endemic regions of malaria

Features / Limitations of Impact Assessments Made so Far Impact based Impact assessment made using climate change projections based on a single model outputs (RCM Had RM2) and single scenario Uncertainty of projections of climate parameters at regional level Limitations of models in assessing sectoral impacts at regional level (forests, crop production, water) Limited data availability

Studies on coping measures • APN agr/climate info •CIDA agr SIDA Agri Droughts Floods Rajasthan Assam Karnataka UP AP Bihar Gujarat Orissa Chattisgarh   Community interaction •OFDA floods/droughts • WB agr/water •Natcom coastal/disasters Vulnerability indicators •APN glaciers •Ford SLR •Natcom agr/wat/for/health Scenario- modelling based •Indo-UK agr/wat/ for/health/coastal • APN agr/rice-wheat •WB agr Single stress – climate change Climate variability and change Multiple stresses

Adaptation Analysis- so far Preliminary assessments made for different sectors; including assessment of current policies and programmes in relation to vulnerability Most policies, measures & technologies also address current stresses to some extent and also relevant for adaptation to climate change (water, forest, agriculture, etc.) Still, incremental mechanisms needed to address climate change impacts Further analysis needed to identify adaptation technologies, measures, institutions, financial needs for adaptation at local levels

Immediate task in Preparation for Adaptation to Climate Change Improve existing climate scenario projections and the sectoral impact assessments Develop socio economic scenarios in conjunction with India’s developmental path Carry out studies at identified climatically hotspot areas Institute an integrated approach to understand the inter-sectoral linkages affecting the physical and socio economic vulnerabilities at local levels Carry out analysis to formulate adaptation frameworks at these scales which can provide inputs for the development of a national adaptation plan for combating the adverse effects of climate change.

Steps Facilitating Adaptation at National and Local Level Strengthen policies for food security, forests, manage disasters and infrastructure development Appropriate allocation of funds for National Development Programme Implementation Step up observation systems & technology development and dissemination Strengthen Institutional mechanisms as instruments of adaptation at local level Arrangement of funds for adaptation Mainstream climate change concerns and hence adaptation in the planning process Consider Development as one of the pathways for adaptation

India’s Development Goals Reducing the poverty ratio by 5 percentage points by 2007 and by 15 percentage points by 2012 Providing gainful and high-quality employment to the labor force All children in school by 2003; all children to complete 5 years of schooling by 2007 4. Reducing gender gaps in literacy and wage rates by at least 50 % by 2007 5. Raising the literacy rate to 75% within the 10th Plan Reducing the decadal rate of population growth between 2001-2011 to 16.2% The goals in blue are more ambitious than corresponding MDGs

India’s Developmental Goals… Reducing the Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) to 45 per 1000 live births by 2007 and to 28 by 2012 Reducing the Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) to 2 per 1000 live births by 2007 and to 1 by 2012 Increasing the forest and tree cover to 25 % by 2007 and 33 % by 2007 All villages to have sustained access to potable drinking water by 2007 Electricity for all by 2012 12. Cleaning of all major polluted rivers by 2007 and other notified stretches by 2012

India Needs More Energy for its Development The Indian Government has targeted an 8% GDP growth rate per annum for 2002–07 to achieve its development priorities In order to achieve these developmental aspirations, substantial additional energy consumption will be necessary and coal, being the abundant domestic energy resource, would continue to play a dominant role.

Climate Friendly Initiative Wide-ranging reforms such as: Policies adopted by India for sustainable development, such as Energy and Power sector reforms energy efficiency increasing penetration of cleaner fuels thrust for renewable energy technologies Introduction of landmark environmental measures that have targeted - cleansing of rivers, - enhanced forestation, - installed significant capacity of hydro and renewable energy technologies and - introduced clean coal technologies - cleaner and lesser carbon intensive fuel have all accelerated the economic growth and lowered the barriers to efficiency and reduced energy intensity

Decreasing Energy Intensity Behind India’s Sustainable Development

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