Global Environmental Change and Food Systems “GECAFS” A Joint Project of IGBP, IHDP & WCRP in Research Partnership with the Consultative Group on International Agriculture Research (CGIAR) and in Collaboration with WMO

Global Environmental Change Issues Changes caused by human activities Climate variability and extreme events Water availability and quality Climate mean values Changes in: Land use and cover Nitrogen availability Atmospheric composition

Global Change and food production systems Impacts of Global Change Global Change (esp. climatic variability) will complicate management of current crop and fisheries production systems Feedbacks to Global Change Environmental consequences of increasing food production will exacerbate Global Change (e.g. habitat degradation, biodiversity, GHGs emissions)

Emerging issues for world food production (adapted from IFPRI, 1997) Fresh water supplies Soil fertility and fertilizer use Climate variability and climate change Trade liberalization and market reform Applications of emerging technologies

International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) A programme of the International Council for Science (ICSU) 8 Core Projects, 2 directly related to food systems Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems (GCTE) most relevant to cropping systems Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics (GLOBEC) most relevant to marine fisheries

International Human Dimensions Programme of Global Environmental Change (IHDP) A programme of the International Social Science Council (ISSC) General IHDP issues: How do human actions contribute to GEC? Why are these actions taken? How does GEC feedback into peoples’ lives? What actions can be taken by whom to respond to, reduce and mitigate GEC? 4 Core Projects, all directly relevant to food systems Land-Use and -Cover Change (LUCC, co-sponsored with IGBP) Institutional Dimensions of Global Environmental Change (IDGEC) Global Environmental Change and Human Security (GECHS) Industrial Transformation (IT)

World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) A joint WMO-ICSU programme 5 International Science Projects Most relevant Project for cropping systems and fisheries is Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Describe and understand climate variability and predictability on seasonal to centennial time-scales; Identify the physical processes responsible, including anthropogenic effects; and Develop modelling and predictive capabilities where practicable.

How they work: scientific research research capacity-building integration and synthesis international scientific networks

GECAFS Goal To determine strategies to cope with the impacts of Global Environmental Change on food provision systems and to analyse the environmental and socioeconomic consequences of adaptation.

Food Provision Production= f (yield, area) Availability= f (production, distribution) Access= f (availability, socioeconomic potential [e.g. affordability], & physiological potential [e.g. nutritional quality] ) Provision = f (production, availability, access)

GECAFS Fundamental Questions 1Given changing demands for food, how will GEC additionally affect food provision and vulnerability in different regions and among different social groups? 2How might different societies and different categories of producers adapt their food systems to cope with GEC against the background of changing demand? 3What would be the environmental and socioeconomic consequences of such adaptations?

GECAFS Science Themes Theme 1Vulnerability and Impacts: Effects of GEC on Food Provision Theme 2Adaptations: GEC and Options for Enhancing Food Provision Theme 3Feedbacks: Environmental and Socioeconomic Consequences of Adapting Food Systems to GEC

Global Environmental Change Food Provision Theme 1 Vulnerability and Impacts Theme 2 Adaptations Adapted Food Provision Theme 3 Environmental Feedbacks Socioeconomic Change Theme 3 Socioeconomic Feedbacks

Theme 1 Vulnerability and Impacts: Effects of Global Environmental Change on Food Provision Overarching questions In which regions and to what extent are food production and provision potentially sensitive to GEC, and why? How will anticipated changes in food production due to GEC influence the availability and accessibility of food? To what extent might anticipated changes in socioeconomic conditions influence the impacts of GEC on food production potential?

Theme 2 Adaptations: Global Environmental Change and Options for Enhancing Food Provision Overarching questions How have food production systems coped with or adapted to environmental variability and change in the past? What types of GEC will exceed the thresholds and speed of adaptive responses of current food production systems? Are existing institutions capable of providing effective adaptation options? What are the future costs to food provision of delaying the implementation of response strategies to GEC?

Theme 3 Feedbacks: Environmental and Socioeconomic Consequences of Adapting Food Systems Overarching questions How and to what extent will the environment be affected by adapting food systems in response to both changing demands and GEC? What are the socio-economic consequences of these adaptations? To what extent are management responses effective in mitigating GEC and consistent with socioeconomic capacities?

Global Environmental Change Food Provision Theme 1 Vulnerability and Impacts Theme 2 Adaptations Adapted Food Provision Theme 3 Environmental Feedbacks Socioeconomic Change Theme 3 Socioeconomic Feedbacks

Example “new” areas of interdisciplinary science Methodologies to address regional- and sub-regional issues by: (i) aggregating small-scale food systems; and (ii) disaggregating global-scale scenarios and datasets. Methodologies for policy analysis of environmental and socioeconomic tradeoffs in food systems. Use of past records of societal adaptations to biophysical changes to provide inputs to scenario-based models of the future. New analysis and insights into the institutional factors that can reduce societal vulnerability to GEC. Developing vulnerability indices and comprehensive scenarios of future conditions. Analysis of changing human wealth and food preferences and interactions with biophysical models of GEC to produce new insights of regions where food provision may be sensitive to GEC.

 Have a clear GEC dimension  Include all 3 GECAFS Themes with a strong design for “internal” integration  Clearly identify, and demonstrate end-user involvement in all stages  Help develop policy at project level  Include capacity development Criteria for individual GECAFS projects

Implementation possibilities for individual projects 1Initiate new research projects - little existing research addressing the interdisciplinary nature of this project; -the spatial and interdisciplinary scales of the required analyses will best be “tailor-made” to address particular interests of scientists, policy makers and donors. 2Identify, build upon and add value to suitable ongoing research (e.g. CPACC-Agriculture?).

Scientific framework The scientific framework will be provided by IGBP, IHDP and WCRP building on their respective strengths of:  internationally-agreed science agendas which specifically include “impacts”, “adaptation” and “feedbacks” research  well-developed coordination and synthesis mechanisms and will be further developed by consolidating links between the Global Change science community and research organisations working on agricultural, policy formulation and development issues.

Strategic alliances Need to be established from an early stage with:  National and international research bodies, e.g. national academies and research centres; and the CGIAR and science bodies within ICSU  Assessment agencies and groups, e.g. WRI, MA  International agencies, e.g. FAO, WMO, World Bank  National and international donor agencies and other potential investors

GECAFS NARS & CGIAR GECAFS interactions with Sponsoring Programmes and with example collaborations FAO IIASA MAWMO

GECAFS Caribbean Project Initial w/s (April 2002, Trinidad) Dialogue within the GECAFS framework between national scientists & policy makers and GECAFS scientists to overall global change issues in the region CFS and GEC Issue Identification w/s (Oct 2002, St Lucia?) Prepare Synthesis paper of CFS and GEC issues Identify GECAFS possible research areas and collaborators Research Planning w/s (2003?) Detailed GECAFS research strategy planning to establish: scientific objectives; collaborators; funding needs and mechanisms; how to maintain dialogue with the policy community Research Implementation Phase (3 - 5 yrs)

GECAFS “Distinguishing Features” A robust framework for novel, interdisciplinary approaches to GEC research that examines vulnerability to impacts, adaptations and feedbacks. A problem-oriented approach which can bring together the GEC and Development agendas, and their donor communities. A methodology which allows an analysis of trade-offs between managing resources for food provision and environmental concerns. A design for analyses at regional and sub-regional levels but which is globally-applicable in concept.

Global Environmental Change Food Provision Theme 1 Vulnerability and Impacts Theme 2 Adaptations Adapted Food Provision Theme 3 Environmental Feedbacks Socioeconomic Change Theme 3 Socioeconomic Feedbacks