Tropical Cyclones AFWA’s role in the Tropical Cyclone analysis process for JTWC & NHC

Storm Track/Forecast Definition: A “FIX” is an estimate of Tropical Cyclone (TC) weather features Consists of: Position (latitude and longitude) of Low Level Circulation Center (LLCC) Intensity (maximum sustained winds)

Storm Track/Forecast Typical methods of obtaining a fix: Meteorological Satellite (METSAT) RADAR (Example:WSR-88D) Aircraft Reconnaissance (Hurricane Hunters) Synoptic Weather Observations

Storm Track/Forecast “Why does AFWA perform Tropical Cyclone fixes? NHC and JTWC are already doing this!”

Storm Track/Forecast Reasons for additional fixes by AFWA: Unique AFWA capabilities Unique AFWA capabilities World-wide DMSP data access/sensor capabilities World-wide DMSP data access/sensor capabilities Replaces spotty aircraft recon availability Replaces spotty aircraft recon availability No aircraft in WESTPAC since 1987 No aircraft in WESTPAC since 1987 No aircraft reconnaissance in Indian Ocean No aircraft reconnaissance in Indian Ocean Limited recon in Atlantic/EastPac/CentPac Limited recon in Atlantic/EastPac/CentPac

Storm Track/Forecast Reasons for additional fixes by AFWA: …(continued)… …(continued)… No ground truth - high subjectivityNo ground truth - high subjectivity Large impact on final forecast Large impact on final forecast Formally requested by NHC/JTWC Formally requested by NHC/JTWC Requirements validated Requirements validated Backup Role for JTWC Backup Role for JTWC

Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: “But Tropical Cyclone fixes are easily done, right?” “They all have eyes…….just like Hurricane Mitch did here”

Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: Even Hurricane Mitch (1998) exhibited an eye merely feature for merely 25% 25% of its life-cycle. Many TC’s NEVER show an EYE! No, not really.

Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: TD 19W 21Aug 00 10Z Here are some more typical examples.

CLOUD CANOPY OBSCURES CENTER < 25 % of systems tracked display eyes

CLOUD CANOPY OBSCURES CENTER < 25 % of systems tracked display eyes So…where’sthecenter?

Storm Track/Forecast Unique AFWA capabilities Unique AFWA capabilities DMSP Satellites Operational Linescan System Operational Linescan System Special Sensor Microwave Imager Special Sensor Microwave Imager Superior Data access to worldwide Superior Data access to worldwide locations locations

Hurricane Jeanne 23 Sep 1998 F14 IR Infrared - Cloud CanopySSM/I - Canopy see-through Hurricane Jeanne 23 Sep 1998 F14 SSM/I Infra-Red vs Microwave Imager

Hurricane Jeanne 23 Sep 1998 F14 IR Infrared - Cloud CanopySSM/I - Canopy see-through Hurricane Jeanne 23 Sep 1998 F14 SSM/I Infra-Red vs Microwave Imager Infrared - Cloud Canopy is not cleat-cut …... SSM/I shows an eye that is more clearly defined NHC/JTWC does not receive this data world-wide… … but AFWA does!

DMSP Low-Light Visual Capability 1.5 NM DMSP Thermal Smooth Infra-red There is a Tropical Cyclone in this image (really). Where is it?

NOTE: Photo-Multiplier Tube (PMT) resolution is 1.5 NM. DMSP Low-Light Visual Capability 1.5 NM DMSP Light Smooth

NOTE: Photo-Multiplier Tube (PMT) resolution is 1.5 NM. DMSP Low-Light Visual Capability 1.5 NM DMSP Light Smooth DMSP night-time imagery - uses moonlight Center

NOTE: Photo-Multiplier Tube (PMT) resolution is 1.5 NM. DMSP Low-Light Visual Capability 1.5 NM DMSP Light Smooth NHC/JTWC does not receive this data world-wide… … but AFWA does!

Hurricane Jeanne 23 Sep 1998 DMSP F14 DMSP SSM/I Surface Winds Surface Winds

Hurricane Jeanne 23 Sep 1998 DMSP F14 DMSP SSM/I Surface Winds Surface Winds Galeforcewinds are in Red

U.S. Tropical Cyclone Warning Centers AORs CPHCNHC 180  140  EQ NHC JTWC Metsat Analysis Bltns (5244) 73 %27 % 5 Dec

U.S. Tropical Cyclone Warning Centers AORs CPHCNHC 180  140  EQ NHC JTWC Metsat Analysis Bltns (5244) 73 %27 % 5 Dec No Effective DMSP data access for JTWC in these areas (green)! AFWA provides coverage here.

Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: But the NHC has aircraft reconnaissance in the Atlantic, right? Why is AFWA doing fixes there?

Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: Here’s NHC’s AOR - at the busiest point of the season….. Graphic - courtesy Weather Channel

Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: Here’s the approx. area covered by aircraft RECON - nearly half their storms are not covered. Graphic - courtesy Weather Channel Aircraft RECON Coverage

Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: NO AIRCRAFT COVERAGE HERE! Graphic - courtesy Weather Channel

Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: Also, Notice how the Eastern Pacific is essentially not covered at all…... Graphic - courtesy Weather Channel

U.S. Tropical Cyclone Warning Centers AORs CPHCNHC 180  140  EQ NHC JTWC Metsat Analysis Bltns (5244) 73 %27 % 5 Dec No Aircraft RECON in these areas! AFWA fixes help offset this loss for JTWC.

U.S. Tropical Cyclone Warning Centers AORs CPHCNHC 180  140  EQ NHC JTWC Metsat Analysis Bltns (5244) 73 %27 % 5 Dec Very Limited Aircraft RECON in these areas! AFWA fixes help offset this loss for NHC/CPHC.

Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix:

Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: So - where’s the aircraft? RADAR? SFC OBS?

Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: Aircraft recon - discontinued in WestPac 1987

Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: RADAR - 240nm from GUAM and Kadena only WSR-88D

Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: Surface Obs - very limited in WestPac AOR. WSR-88D

Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: So - all that’s left - all too often - is two opinions about the location of the LLCC

Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: Which two opinions? JTWC and AFWA!

Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: If you pick “A”, Guam is threatened in 24 hrs... But not if you pick “B”

Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: Gale winds here in green

Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: This could be the difference between getting aircraft & ships sortied (evacuated) on-time or too late! So the choice matters!

Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: This could be the difference between getting aircraft & ships sortied (evacuated) on-time or too late! The overall confidence in a single fix is never high - unless it’s an EYE.

Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: This could be the difference between getting aircraft & ships sortied (evacuated) on-time or too late! If we selected a position in-between the two subjective position estimates….

Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: ….then we have a higher probability of being correct…….

Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: ….or at least not too too far off…....

Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: ….when compared to the other two forecasts. Most Likely

Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: ….when compared to the other two forecasts. EXTREME Most Likely

Storm Track/Forecast Formalized Requirements

Storm Track/Forecast Formalized Requirements TYPE OF SUPPORT REQUESTED: {JTWC} a. Tropical cyclone center (position) fixes, including positions using Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) and Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) data for systems  25 knots and/or meeting a minimum Dvorak current intensity of  T1.0. Tropical cyclone intensity and SSM/I 35-knot wind radii, as appropriate, from all meteorological satellite imagery in the Global Satellite database to include high-resolution geostationary images….. b. Tropical cyclone center (position) fix bulletins from SSM/I-only DMSP or TRMM-only for known systems  25 knots and/or meeting a minimum Dvorak current intensity of  T1.0.

Storm Track/Forecast Formalized Requirements {JTWC - Continued} c. Upon telephone request by the JTWC Typhoon Duty Officer (TDO) or the JTWC METSAT analyst, provide position fixes for tropical disturbances less than Dvorak T1.0. For these systems:  Indicate the latitude/longitude of the center position  Enter "X.X" for the final-T and explain in remarks that the system does not meet Dvorak classification requirements  The "INIT OBS" remark will not be issued until a Dvorak intensity of T1.0 is reached; at this time commence normal Dvorak rules  If a system has previously been classified using Dvorak rules and a center position can no longer be defined, enter "X.X" for the final-T and hold the current intensity of the system up according to Dvorak rules and constraints. This will alleviate the "early killing" of systems associated with undetermined positions on nighttime infrared imagery.

Storm Track/Forecast Formalized Requirements d. METEOSAT, GMS and GOES tropical cyclone metwatch over the Indian and Pacific Oceans using all available imagery. Suspect areas must be aggressively identified where convection persists for 12 hours or where low-level circulation centers can be observed or inferred. Notification of suspect areas will be made via tropical cyclone fix bulletins and telecon with JTWC. {JTWC - Continued}

Storm Track/Forecast Formalized Requirements

Storm Track/Forecast Formalized Requirements 6.4. Air Force Support and the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP). “Data covering the National Hurricane Operations Plan areas of interest are received centrally at the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) and locally at several direct readout sites. The USAF uses all available meteorological satellite data when providing fix and intensity information to NWS hurricane forecasters. The DOD will provide DMSP coverage of tropical and subtropical cyclones whenever possible.” {National Hurricane Center - NHC }

Storm Track/Forecast Formalized Requirements North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Surveillance. “AFWA readouts will augment NESDIS surveillance for the North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific. AFWA will, resources permitting, transmit twice daily teletype bulletins, describing the location and intensity classification of the system, using format shown in Figure 6-2 to the TPC/NHC on organized disturbances evident at the tropical classification of one point five (T-1.5) or higher. AFWA will, resources permitting, provide gale wind radius analysis utilizing SSM/I data for all systems with maximum intensities greater than 50 kt.”

Storm Track/Forecast Formalized Requirements Central Pacific Surveillance. “AFWA will maintain the capability to provide surveillance support cited in para to the CPHC. Detachment 1, PACAF Air Operations Squadron (Joint Typhoon Warning Center Satellite Operations) will provide fix and intensity information to the CPHC on systems upon request.”

JTWC SATOPS BACKUP

Storm Track/Forecast

Background: On 15 Feb 2001, TC 09S (Vincent) was nearing land along the NW coast of Australia. Issue: The 15/1340Z fix from KGWC and 15/1430Z fix from PGTW were over 230 nm apart. This slide show will show the reasoning behind the KGWC fix.

TC 09S (Vincent) WRNG #7

Legend: Fixes KGWC -Blue PGTW-Yellow KWBC-Green

TPXS10 KGWC A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (VINCENT) - RELOCATED B. 15/1340Z (09) C. 17.7S/5 D E/2 E. FIVE/DMSP F. T2.0/2.5/S0.0 24HRS -15/1131Z- G. WX6549/06092/ATS-EIR-MI/N 41/ PBO CONVECTIVE CURVATURE ON 85H DATA. H. CENTER WAS 2.5DEGREES EAST OF NADIR. I. GALE WIND RADIUS ANAL - N/A DRCTN DSTC-NM LAT LONG 1. N 2. NE 3. E 4. SE 5. S 6. SW 7. W 8. NW ROACHE < SENT AT 15:01:32

SFC OBS: 15/1500Z BEST TRACK

SFC OBS: 15/1500Z BEST TRACK 230nm

The Main points of concern: LLCC was consistently located to the east of the CNVCTN thru the last 2 days. AFWA position is consistent with the above thought Also, SFC obs from Broome, Derby,and Koolan (at 15/15Z) support our position. The next few slides show the storm over yesterday and today:

14 Feb 2001, 0600Z LLCC fully exposed, located east of CNVCTN

15 Feb 2001, 0700Z

This low level cloud line convinced us as to the location of the LLCC.

15 Feb 2001, 0800Z

PGTW KGWC These surface obs concerned us - not consistent with westward location of LLCC (they are 180 degrees out)

It does appear as though a secondary LLCC is near the coast ( see obs at Bedout Island and Port Hedland) at 1500Z.

LLCC’s

The DMSP 85H (which follows) appears to show a better defined (though poor) LLCC near Broome.

KGWC 15/1340Z

TPXS10 KGWC A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (VINCENT) B. 15/1731Z (09) C. 17.9S/7 D E/8 E. SIX/SATELLITE F. T2.0/2.5/S0.0 24HRS -15/1731Z- G. IR/EIR 38A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. LLCC HAS MOVED OVER LAND NEAR BROOME. BAND OF CONVECTION SW OF LLCC HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. CNVCTN WRAPS.35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL. FINAL T BASED ON DT. PT AND MET AGREE. ROACHE/KRAMER < SENT AT 18:32:56

Summary: This was a difficult storm to position, with two LLCC’s likely. This was a difficult storm to position, with two LLCC’s likely. Based on continuity, SFC obs, past behavior of the system, we feel that main LLCC made landfall near Broome. A secondary LLCC most likely made landfall near Port Hedland. Based on continuity, SFC obs, past behavior of the system, we feel that main LLCC made landfall near Broome. A secondary LLCC most likely made landfall near Port Hedland.

IMPACT

WTXS31 PGTW TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (VINCENT) WARNING NR 008A RELOCATED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: Z5 --- NEAR 19.5S E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 070 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR, AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: Z S E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: Z9 POSITION NEAR 19.9S E9. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (VINCENT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM EAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, WAS RELOCATED FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED, AND HAS MOVED OVER LAND. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON Z5 SYNOPTIC DATA, Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND RADAR. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KTS AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS OF 25 KNOTS. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL SERVE TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. TC 09S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER LAND AND COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BY THE 12 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

WTXS31 PGTW TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (VINCENT) WARNING NR 008A RELOCATED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: Z5 --- NEAR 19.5S E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 070 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR, AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: Z S E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: Z9 POSITION NEAR 19.9S E9. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (VINCENT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM EAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, WAS RELOCATED FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED, AND HAS MOVED OVER LAND. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON Z5 SYNOPTIC DATA, Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND RADAR. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KTS AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS OF 25 KNOTS. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL SERVE TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. TC 09S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER LAND AND COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BY THE 12 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

WTXS31 PGTW RELOCATED 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (VINCENT) WARNING NR 008A RELOCATED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: Z5 --- NEAR 19.5S E7

WRNG 8

WRNG 7 WRNG 8

WRNG Z