1. CORP Symposium Fort Collins, CO August 16, 2006 Session 3: NPOESS AND GOES-R Applications Tropical Cyclone Applications Ray Zehr, NESDIS / RAMM

3. Introduction Satellite Data Types Tracking and Intensity –Center location (fixing) –Intensity estimates Dvorak Technique Objective Dvorak Technique Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) Short Range Forecasting –Intensity Current trends Vertical Shear (Asymmetry) Sea-surface Temperature “Rapid” Intensification –Track Water vapor image applications / Recurvature Structure –Outer Winds –Surface Wind Analysis (RMW, Size) –Related structures and weather systems Subtropical Cyclones Hybrid Tropical Cyclones Extratropical Transition Landfall

4. Future Satellites ……will have better resolution … –both in space (spatial) –and in time (temporal)

7. Super Rapid-scan Operations (SRSO) Animations of 1-minute interval visible images Comparison with 30-minute interval Meso-vortices within the hurricane eye

9. Multi-Spectral Views of Hurricane Katrina (from www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html) Visible GOES IR (10.7  m) GOES Microwave: DMSP SSMI 85 Ghz/H QuikSCAT Ocean Surface Winds

10. Hurricane Stan 2005 Example IR Visible TRMM 37 GHz V AMSR 89 GHz H SSM/I Microwave 85Ghz

11. Atlantic Hurricane Size Differences Cindy 1999 Iris 2001 Intensity: 120 kt Intensity: 125 kt Average R-34 kt: 231 nmi Average R-34 kt: 69 nmi R-50 kt: 144 nmi R-50 kt: 23 nmi

14. Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) Intensity Estimates AMSU retrieval techniques provide 3-D temperature/moisture fields –~50 km horizontal, 3 km vertical resolution –Microwave measurements penetrate through cloud tops Individual channels correlated with layer temperatures CIRA algorithm uses T retrieval input for max wind estimate –Operational at NCEP/TPC for 2006 season –Also estimates radii of 34, 50 and 64 kt winds CIMSS algorithm uses two channels to estimate MSLP –Includes correction for instrument resolution limitations

15. 4. Tropical Cyclone Product Development HES studies with AIRS –Storm environment evaluation with GPS sondes from NOAA Jet –Hurricane eye soundings –Evaluation of Saharan Air Layer Joint project with Hurricane Research Division ABI studies –Evaluation of Dvorak EIR technique Joint project with National Hurricane Center –Genesis and intensity change studies with MSG data

16. NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT: A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE PLATFORM GPS Sondes from the G-IV T, moisture, wind sounding 5 meter vertical resolution Limited to a few flights per year

17. Hurricane Emily 7/16/05 1800Z AIRS Granules and GPS Dropsondes

18. HES Soundings in Storm Environment

19. Soundings from AIRS, Eta Model Analysis, and NOAA Jet in Lili Environment

20. HES Hurricane Eye Soundings Preliminary positive results reported on single Isabel case with AIRS New study with 6 cases from Isabel/Lili Much larger data set being collected Errors of Eye Sounding Minimum Pressure Estimates

21. HES Analysis of Saharan Air Layer Jason Dunion (HRD) collected GPS sondes for SAL case –Tropical Storm Irene 2005 AIRS and current GOES sounder retrievals will be compared MSG Channel 6 for TS Irene GSP Sonde Locations

22. ABI Intensity Estimation Collaborative study with Jack Beven, NHC Forecaster 13 cases of Dvorak various scene types Proxy data collected Jack ran Dvorak EIR with current GOES and ABI resolution Impact on cold ring and warm eye, with some cancellation Database will be greatly expanded for AWG Warm eye and cold ring T B differences 1, 2, 4 km resolution

23. Hurricane Wilma 2005 Before Yucatan Landfall MODIS 1 km IR Window Channel Degraded to GOES 4 km resolution

24. Outer Wind Structure Satellite methods for wind structure analysis –Active (QuikSCAT) and passive (Windsat) microwave methods –GOES feature track winds –SSM/I wind speed algorithms –AMSU wind retrievals (experimental) –GOES IR statistical methods (experimental)

25. R34 175 180 125 185 R50 120115 80 125 R64 80 65 60 60 From this analysis R34 150 120 100 150 R50 100 90 70 90 R64 80 60 45 55 18 UTC NHC advisory Combined Wind Analysis Experimental combined wind analysis will be available soon from http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ Wind Radii

26. Tropical Cyclone Soundings from ATMS/CrIS Temperature/moisture soundings in storm environment for track prediction Hurricane eye soundings for intensity monitoring Balanced wind retrievals for storm structure analysis Proxy data from AIRS/AMSU and numerical model analysis

27. Florida Landfalls Charley 2004 and Wilma 2005

28. Storm Structure Analysis Large variability in outer circulation size JTWC interest in 50 kt wind radii for ship routing NHC interest in 34 kt radii for evacuation planning, 64 kt winds for hurricane warnings NPOESS wind radii methods: –Ocean surface winds from CMIS –ATMS/CrIS balance winds

29. Summary NPOESS holds great promise for hurricane analysis and forecasting Temporal resolution is good match for most processes VIIRS, ATMS/CrIS, CMIS and altimeter all useful Track forecasting, intensity and structure monitoring Assimilation in numerical forecast models NPOESS TC proxy data/algorithm development web site under development at CIRA