Status of research SB May 2006 Luiz Pinguelli Rosa, Joyce Penner, Niklas Höhne

Overview 1.Introduction to the MATCH process Luiz Pinguelli Rosa 2.Analysing countries contribution to climate change: Scientific and methodological choices Niklas Höhne 3.Closure and scientific uncertainty Joyce Penner 4.Possible future work of MATCH Niklas Höhne 5.Demonstration of JCM, FAIR and CAIT Ben Matthews / Niklas Höhne / Jonathan Pershing Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change

Historical Background In Kyoto, 1997, the Brazilian Proposal placed in focus the historical emissions contribution to increase the global temperature The calculation presented to support the proposal was based on the available data of historical emissions from each country after the Industrial Revolution The decay of additional GHG in atmosphere was simulated by a superposition of exponential functions, from Bern Model for calculating the gas concentration The climate response has been included trough another superposition of exponential functions for calculating the contribution of each country to temperature increase Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change

Historical Background The calculation presented to support the Brazilian Proposal had some problems: The difficulty of having data of historical emissions from each country The lack of land use changes emissions The need of including contributions of other GHG The use of simple superposition of exponential functions The need of considering non linear effects Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change

MATCH process Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change UNFCCC process Two expert meetings Coordinated modelling exercise ACCC Ad-hoc group Initiated by Brazil and UK Two expert meetings so far

SBSTA 17 (Oct 2002) Work should be continued by the scientific community, in particular to improve the robustness of the preliminary results and to explore the uncertainty and sensitivity Be of a standard consistent with the practices of peer-reviewed published science. The process should be inclusive, open and transparent. Capacity building: strongly encouraged Parties and institutions to facilitate capacity-building in developing countries, including by hosting scientists from developing countries Invited the scientific community, including IGBP, WCRP, IHDP and IPCC to provide information on how they could contribute Encouraged scientists to undertake further work, to make the results of their work publicly available and to report progress at SBSTA 20, June 2004 (side event). SBSTA decided to review the progress at its 23 rd session (Nov 2005). Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change

MATCH process Objective: Assess methods for calculating the contribution of different emission sources (e.g. regional, national or sectoral) to climate change and its impacts, taking into account uncertainties, and the sensitivity of the calculations to the use of different methods, models and methodological choices. Outputs: Provide clear guidance on the implications of the use of the different scientific methods, models, and methodological choices Where scientific arguments allow, recommend one method/model/choice or several possible methods/models/choices for each step of the calculation of contributions to climate change, taking into account scientific robustness, practicality and data availability Organization of expert meetings, workshops and a coordinated modelling exercise Prepare papers to be published in peer reviewed scientific journals Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change

MATCH process Scientific Coordination Committee Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change Xiaosu DaiNational Climate Center, China Michel den ElzenRIVM, Netherlands Jan Fuglestvedt (Co- chair) CICERO, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo, Norway Jason LoweMet Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK Joyce Penner (Co-chairUniversity of Michigan, USA Michael PratherUniversity of California at Irvine, USA Cathy TrudingerCSIRO Atmospheric Research, Australia Murari LalIIT, India José Domingos Gonzalez Miguez Interministerial Committee on Global Climate Change, Brazil Niklas Höhne (Secretary)Ecofys, Germany

MATCH process Developing country participation: Fund for travel costs of developing country experts sponsored by governments of Germany, Norway, UK Support unit: Ecofys under contract to UK Defra Information: Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change

MATCH-info.net Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change Background Organization Papers Expert meetings File exchange Discussion forum

Participation in addition to SCC Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change

Individual scientific papers Pinguelli Rosa, Ribeiro, 1997: The share of responsibility between developed and developing countries in climate change, Greenhouse Gas Mitigation. In Proceedings from the International Energy Agency Conference on GHG Pinguelli Rosa, Ribeiro, 2001: The present, past, and future contributions to global warming of CO2 emissions from fuels, Climatic Change den Elzen, Schaeffer 2002: Responsibility for past and future global warming: Uncertainties in attributing anthropogenic climate change, Climatic Change Andronova, Schlesinger 2004: Importance of Sulfate Aerosol in Evaluating the Relative Contributions of Regional Emissions to the Historical Global Temperature Change, Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies for Global Change Pinguelli Rosa, Ribeiro, Muylaert, Campos, 2004: Comments on the Brazilian Proposal and contributions to global temperature increase with different climate responses - CO2 emissions due to fossil fuels, CO2 emissions due to land use change, Energy Policy Muylaert, Cohen, Pinguelli Rosa, Pereira, 2004: Equity, responsibility and climate change Climate Research Muylaert, Campos, Pinguelli Rosa, 2005: GHG historical contribution by sectors, sustainable development and equity Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews Campos, Muylaert, Pinguelli Rosa, 2005: Historical CO2 emission and concentrations due to land use change of croplands and pastures by country, Science of the Total Environment Trudinger, Enting, 2005: Comparison of formalisms for attributing responsibility for climate change: Non-linearities in the Brazilian Proposal approach, Climatic Change den Elzen, Schaeffer, Lucas, 2005: Differentiating Future Commitments on the Basis of Countries Relative Historical Responsibility for Climate Change: Uncertainties in the Brazilian Proposal in the Context of a Policy Implementation, Climatic Change Rive, Torvanger, Fuglestvedt 2005: Climate agreements based on responsibility for global warming: periodic updating, policy choices, and regional costs, Global Environmental Change Höhne, Blok, 2005: Calculating historical contributions to climate change – discussing the Brazilian Proposal, Climatic Change Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change

MATCH results Paper #1: Analysing countries contribution to climate change: Scientific choices and methodological issues: status of the work and first results Paper #2: Attributing a fraction of climate change to a nation's historical emissions: closure and scientific uncertainty Other capacity developed as inspiration of the MATCH process: –IVIG (Brazil) developed a detailed and flexible model of land-use emissions which has recently been coupled with the JCM carbon/climate model developed in UCL-ASTR (Belgium) –A researcher from CMA (China) visited NIWA (New Zealand) for an extended period to gain experience in modelling Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change

Overview 1.Introduction to the MATCH process Luiz Pinguelli Rosa 2.Analysing countries contribution to climate change: Scientific and methodological choices Niklas Höhne 3.Closure and scientific uncertainty Joyce Penner 4.Possible future work of MATCH Niklas Höhne 5.Demonstration of JCM, FAIR and CAIT Ben Matthews / Niklas Höhne / Jonathan Pershing Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change