1. FAIR 2.1 Tool for analyzing mitigation commitments and costs of countries/regions for different post- 2012 regimes Michel den Elzen, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, associated with RIVM

2. Michel den Elzen, Countries mitigation commitments under the South-North dialogue proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn 2 Overview Part 1: General Part 2: FAIR 2.1 region Part 3: FAIR 2.1 country Part 4:South-North dialogue proposal compatible with 2 o C quantification Part 4: Conclusions

3. Michel den Elzen, Countries mitigation commitments under the South-North dialogue proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn 3 Part 1:General

4. Michel den Elzen, Countries mitigation commitments under the South-North dialogue proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn 4 To explore and evaluate the environmental and abatement costs implications of possible future international climate policy regimes for differentiation of mitigation commitments The model is not made to promote any particular regime, but to allow for comparing regimes in consistent and transparent way NB: –Developed to support long-term policy development, but also used for analysing near-term policy issues –Developed to support Dutch climate policy, but used / available for other Parties as well. Objective FAIR 2.0

5. Michel den Elzen, Countries mitigation commitments under the South-North dialogue proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn 5 Contents: –links differentiation of commitments to adequacy of commitments –based on established science (IPCC) –includes many proposed regimes options –includes emission trading and costs Form: –PC computer model –geographical user interface –relatively simple to use –Interactive Features of FAIR

6. Michel den Elzen, Countries mitigation commitments under the South-North dialogue proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn 6 Some proposals for climate change regimes –Brazilian Proposal (Brazil / RIVM)* –Multi-criteria (CICERO) –Multi-stage (RIVM)* –Contraction & Convergence (Global Commons Institute)* –Global Compromise (Benito Müller)* –Multi-Sector Convergence (ECN/Cicero) –(global) Triptych approach (UU)* –South-North proposal –(Convergence in) Emission-Intensities (targets)* –Growth cap index (Ellerman, M IT) –Jacoby rule (ability to pay) (MIT)* –Soft landing (IEPE) –Sectoral commitments / sectoral CDM –SD-PAMs (University of Cape Town) * Green = included in FAIR 2.0

7. Michel den Elzen, Countries mitigation commitments under the South-North dialogue proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn 7 Strategy: different models for different target groups General Public: web model version: aims: orientation on the issue / education / capacity building conditions: for free; no commercial use; no technical support; no publications without consent RIVM –Policy Advisors: full model version (no access to code) aim: support other Parties in policy analysis conditions: on a case by case basis; licence agreement; limited support; no commercial use; no publication without consent RIVM –Research institutes: full model (access to code) aim: co-development of the model; scientific analysis / publications conditions: selected network partner; collaboration agreement; contribution to development of model; no commercial use FAIR model versions

8. Michel den Elzen, Countries mitigation commitments under the South-North dialogue proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn 8 Part 1:FAIR 2.0 model

9. Michel den Elzen, Countries mitigation commitments under the South-North dialogue proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn 9 Global emission profile Regional emissions targets Regional GHG emissions after trade Climate assessment model Per capita Convergence Multi-stage approach emission intensity system CLIMATE MODEL Global emission profile Abatement costs & permit price DATASETS EMISSIONS ALLOCATION MODEL Mitigation costs & Emissions trade EMISSION TRADE & COST MODEL Historical emissions Brazilian Proposal Triptych approach Baseline scenario Emissions profile MACs FAIR 2.0 model Global emission reduction objective

10. Michel den Elzen, Countries mitigation commitments under the South-North dialogue proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn 10 Datasets FAIR 2.0- internet version Historical emissions (1765-1995): –CDIAC (only CO 2 ) –EDGAR/HYDE (all non-CO 2 GHGs) Baseline scenario –IMAGE 2.2 IPCC SRES scenarios –IMAGE-POLES scenario Emission profiles –two global GHG emission profiles (550 CO2-eq and 650 CO2-eq.) Marginal Abatement Costs (MAC) curves –MACs CO 2 : energy model (TIMER 1.0 - IMAGE) –MACs non-CO 2 : GECS (European Commission)

11. Michel den Elzen, Countries mitigation commitments under the South-North dialogue proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn 11 Global emission profile Regional emissions targets Regional GHG emissions after trade Climate assessment model Per capita Convergence Multi-stage approach emission intensity system CLIMATE MODEL Global emission profile Abatement costs & permit price DATASETS EMISSIONS ALLOCATION MODEL Mitigation costs & Emissions trade EMISSION TRADE & COST MODEL Historical emissions Brazilian Proposal Triptych approach Baseline scenario Emissions profile MACs FAIR 2.0 model Global emission reduction objective

12. Michel den Elzen, Countries mitigation commitments under the South-North dialogue proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn 12 Multi-Stage approach Multi-stage Approach (RIVM): a gradual increase in the number of Parties involved and their level of commitment according to participation and differentiation rules Berk and den Elzen (2001), Climate Policy Four stages (for non-Annex I): Stage 1. No constraint Stage 2. Intensity targets (threshold 1) Stage 3. Stabilisation emissions (threshold 2) Stage 4. Emission reduction targets (Annex I) Policy choices: 4Threshold options: per capita income, per capita emissions 4Stabilisation period 4Burden-sharing options: income, emissions, per capita emissions/income, etc.

13. Michel den Elzen, Countries mitigation commitments under the South-North dialogue proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn 13 Multi-Stage approach Gradual participation and different type of commitments Example for S550e: –threshold 1: 20% 90 Annex I per capita income –threshold 2: 50% 90 Annex I per capita income –5-year stabilisation emissions –contribution to reductions using burden-sharing key p.c. emissions

14. Michel den Elzen, Countries mitigation commitments under the South-North dialogue proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn 14 Global emission profile Regional emissions targets Regional GHG emissions after trade Climate assessment model Per capita Convergence Multi-stage approach emission intensity system CLIMATE MODEL Global emission profile Abatement costs & permit price DATASETS EMISSIONS ALLOCATION MODEL Mitigation costs & Emissions trade EMISSION TRADE & COST MODEL Historical emissions Brazilian Proposal Triptych approach Baseline scenario Emissions profile MACs FAIR 2.0 model Global emission reduction objective

15. Michel den Elzen, Countries mitigation commitments under the South-North dialogue proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn 15 Abatement costs model Function: 1.To calculate abatement costs (multi-gas) 2.To calculate the buyers and sellers on the international permit market 3.To distribute the global emission reduction objective over the different regions, gases and sectors following a least-cost approach, making use of the flexible Kyoto mechanisms.

16. Michel den Elzen, Countries mitigation commitments under the South-North dialogue proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn 16 on the basis of Marginal Abatement Cost curves (MAC): 6 GHGs, 11 sectors and 17 world regions; MAC curves only represent direct costs, there is no direct link to GDP losses Assumption is made of international emission trading: full trading in case regions participate; limited trading for non-participants (CDM) Methodology

17. Michel den Elzen, Countries mitigation commitments under the South-North dialogue proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn 17 Costs as % of GDP 550 CO2-eq vs. 650 CO2-eq. Example: S550e leads to much higher abatement costs than the S650e (equivalent to 0.4% versus 0.05% of world GDP in 2025) Costs are subject to considerable uncertainty (only baseline)

18. Michel den Elzen, Countries mitigation commitments under the South-North dialogue proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn 18 Regional costs under C&C 2050 (S550e) Buyers and sellers on the market –India, Africa and China sellers; Rest buyers Large differences costs Low-income non-Annex I regions gains for most regimes (up to 2%)

19. Michel den Elzen, Countries mitigation commitments under the South-North dialogue proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn 19 FAIR website: www.rivm.nl/fair

20. Michel den Elzen, Countries mitigation commitments under the South-North dialogue proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn 20 Part 3:FAIR 2.1 country model

21. Michel den Elzen, Countries mitigation commitments under the South-North dialogue proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn 21 Methodology: the FAIR 2.1 country model Base year data (1990-2000): Emissions: CAIT database All Kyoto gases, excluding land use change and forestry, including international transport New: Future baseline scenarios for countries (population, GDP and emissions) IMAGE IPCC SRES scenarios at 17 regions Using an improved downscaling method Tries to deal with the limits of present down-scaling methods Kyoto USA implements its national target of 18% improvement in emissions/GDP until 2012 Other Annex I countries follow Kyoto target

22. Michel den Elzen, Countries mitigation commitments under the South-North dialogue proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn 22 +35% +40% +20% +30%- 5% +10% -45% -25% Multi-gas emission pathways meeting 2 o C

23. Michel den Elzen, Countries mitigation commitments under the South-North dialogue proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn 23 Parameters of South-North dialogue proposal Reduction requirements for meeting the different concentration levels 500ppm CO 2 -eq. is Political Willingness Scenario

24. Michel den Elzen, Countries mitigation commitments under the South-North dialogue proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn 24 Groups of regions change in time: 2020.

25. Michel den Elzen, Countries mitigation commitments under the South-North dialogue proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn 25 Groups of regions change in time: 2030 – 550ppm

26. Michel den Elzen, Countries mitigation commitments under the South-North dialogue proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn 26 Groups of regions change in time: 2040 – 550ppm

27. Michel den Elzen, Countries mitigation commitments under the South-North dialogue proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn 27 Groups of regions change in time: 2050 – 550ppm Gradual change towards NICs and RIDCs

28. Michel den Elzen, Countries mitigation commitments under the South-North dialogue proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn 28 Change compared to 1990 level in 2020 In 2020, Annex I emissions need to be reduced ~30-35% below 1990 levels for 400-450ppm For meeting the 400/450 ppm NICs and RIDCs have to participate in the reductions between 2015 and 2025

29. Michel den Elzen, Countries mitigation commitments under the South-North dialogue proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn 29 Change compared to 1990 level in 2050 Note: shown here are the static groups in 2020 In 2050, NICs have reduction effort comparable with those of Annex. Other DCs and LDCs also have to reduce

30. Michel den Elzen, Countries mitigation commitments under the South-North dialogue proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn 30 Reductions compared to baseline 2020 – 550ppm

31. Michel den Elzen, Countries mitigation commitments under the South-North dialogue proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn 31 Reductions compared to baseline 2030 – 550ppm

32. Michel den Elzen, Countries mitigation commitments under the South-North dialogue proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn 32 Reductions compared to baseline 2040 – 550ppm

33. Michel den Elzen, Countries mitigation commitments under the South-North dialogue proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn 33 Reductions compared to baseline 2050 – 550ppm Differentiated results between the Annex I and non-Annex I

34. Michel den Elzen, Countries mitigation commitments under the South-North dialogue proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn 34 Reductions compared to baseline 2050 – 400ppm High reductions for the Annex I and RIDCs and NICs, moderate reductions OCDs and LDCs

35. Michel den Elzen, Countries mitigation commitments under the South-North dialogue proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn 35 Reductions compared to baseline 2050 – 550ppm Differentiated results between the Annex I and non-Annex I

36. Michel den Elzen, Countries mitigation commitments under the South-North dialogue proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn 36 Per capita emissions under 400 and 550 ppm CO 2 -equivalent scenario