Transboundary Pollution Issues are of Growing Importance S-Deposition RAINS-Asia –Carmichael et al., (2001)

Need to assess inter-model variability. The MICS-ASIA Study: Model InterComparison of Long-Range Transport and Sulfur Deposition in East Asia How Robust Are The Source-Receptor Relationships? Many different models with important similarities and differences:Lagrangian, Eulerian, Hybrid, etc.

Participant(s)OrganizationModel nameModel type Main model focus S.-B. Kim, T.-Y. Lee, K-Y. Ma Dept of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University, Seoul (Korea) YU-SADM (Yonsei Univ.- Sulfur Acid Dep. Model) 3D Eulerian Long-term period or episodic estimation of sulfur sources contributions H. Hayami, Y. Ichikawa CRIEPI (Japan)CRIEPI trajectory model Lagrangian 1-layer Long-term evaluation H. Hayami, O. Hertel, Y. Ichikawa CRIEPI (Japan) and National Env. Research Institute (Denmark) ACDEP ASIALagrangian 1-layer Long-term evaluation I. Uno, E.S. Jang Research Institute for Applied Mech., Kyushu Univ, Fukuoka (Japan) RIAM version of RAMS on-line tracer model 3D Eulerian Episodic and long-term simulation for chemical climate studies Y. Ikeda, R. Yasuda, H. Nakaminami Osaka Prefecture University (Japan) OPU-Model (Osaka Prefecture Univ.) 3D Eulerian Long-term deposition S.Y. Cho, G. Carmichael CGRER, University of Iowa STEM3D Eulerian Episodic and long-term studies G. Calori, G. Carmichael CGRER, University of Iowa ATMOS-2Lagrangian multi-layer Long-term conc. and depositions of sulfur in Asia. Source-receptor relationships. M. EngardtSwedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute MATCH3D Eulerian Long-term concentrations and depositions of ozone and acidifying substances

Comparison with monitoring data for the January period.

Monitoring station location and emission distribution at Kanghwa (left) and Tsushima (right) Spatial resolution is 1 deg on upper and 30 sec on bottom

Bias (abs [obs.-calc.]/calc.*100) of model calculated quantities for the month of January. (Task A)

Correlation between observed and predicted data by monitoring site. (Task A)

Example of 10 day- averaged surface SO 2 concentrations (January 1-10) calculated by the participating models.(Task A)

Wet to total sulfur ratio in depositions for both months (January and May together) over the target regions.(Task A)

Total sulfur depositions for both months (January and May together) and contributions due to each process over selected target regions. (Left: S. Korea; Right Central China) Upper panels: results from Task B. Lower panels: Task A vs. Task B.

Uncertainty in the Source-Receptor Relationships Inter-model Variability

5 day iso-sigma back-trajectories arriving in Taichung Shown are the frequency distribution of all 3-hour end points over the entire month of trajectories originated at the receptor.

Uncertainty in the Source-Receptor Relationships Interannual Variability (10-yrs)

Effect of Interannual Meteorological Variability on Sulfur Deposition can be Much Larger than Changes in Emissions! Is there climate feedback link?

Regional Air Pollution Issues Long-range transport: Northern China  Korea  Japan  North America (?!) Regional visibility impairment, reduced insolation-- compounded by dust from western deserts, climate implications Acid rain, sulfur deposition, nitrogen deposition (NH 3 involvement from fertilizer use), eutrophicaion of surface waters Regional ozone formation, caused by organics + NO x with the involvement of CO and CH 4 Trace elements from coal combustion, particularly Hg

Nitrate Deposition is of Growing Importance Tracey’s Work

Nitrate Deposition is of Growing Importance % of Total Deposition as Nitrate Tracey’s Work

Observed pH S/Ca>1 Deposition of Dust Plays an Important Role in Neutralizing Acid Deposition

The CFORS forecast (upper left) of the two dust systems are shown above. The dust plume (pink) represents the region with dust concentrations greater than 200  grams/m 3. White indicates clouds. The SeaWifs satellite image (upper right) also clearly shows the accumulation of dust spiraling into the Low Pressure center. Also note the strong outflow of dust in the warm sector “ahead” of the front over the Japan Sea. The two systems are clearly seen in the satellite derived TOMS-AI (aerosol index) (lower right). The dust event is clearly seen in the China SEPA air pollution monitoring network. Lower left hand panel shows extremely large ground level concentrations ( The sandstorm and sand-drifting weather, which swept across most parts of China caused severe visibility and air quality problems NASA-Seawifs

ACE-Asia (NSF) & TRACE-P (NASA) Spring 2001 Experiments NASA/GTE DC-8

Dust (Pink) and Sulfate Dust and CO The Long Range Transport of Dust is a Well Recognized Phenomena in East Asia--- Pollution is Transported the Same Way!!

April 08, 2001 AOD (dust=color, BC+OC=line) AOD SO4

A comparison between the CFORS predictions and that observed by satellite (TOMS-AI)

The Changing Air Quality of the Northern Hemisphere Pacific Basin Pressures are from the Pacific Rim Countries and beyond. Changing patterns and growth rates of energy use and resulting emissions are the primary forcing factors--with East and West following different paths. Impacts are local, regional (East and West), basin-wide, and global. Complexities in transport and chemistry over the Pacific greatly challenge present modeling and measurement efforts.

UNEXPECTED DECREASES IN CHINA’S SULFUR EMISSIONS New Two-Zone Control Policy SEPA BAU – ca 1990’s Actual

The importance of black carbon has only recently been recognized

China Emissions in (Tg)  in China’s emissions (2000 – 1995) (Tg) Total global fossil fuel emission ca~1995 (Tg) Change in China’s emissions as % of global total anthropogenic fuel combustion (%) Temp. Response function  T/  Emissions (K/Tg) 2,4 Estimated Change in global temperatures due to changes in China’s emissions between 1995 and 2000 (K) 3,4 SO % BC % CO 2 3, , % CH % Net change:  = Air Pollution and Climate Issues are Intimately Linked

Change in Sulfur Deposition between 1975 and 2000.

The Role of Chemical Weather Forecasting is of Growing Importance Field Campaign Planning Field Observation Design Traffic (Aviation) Management Visibility Environmental Management Health Alerts Flight pathSounding height obs. point Annual averaged Surface level SO 4 2- Simulated Kosa Onset April 98

Considerations for Future MICS Studies Many regional modeling efforts in East Asia (Models 3 Community Modeling, Hong Kong EPA, ChinaMap, etc.) How to include them? And Chinese models? Nitrate & longer-term have been identified as important next steps I also see the importance of such studies for dust, PM2.5/10, AOD, and even extending to ozone.

Thank You !!!

South Korea Annual Sulfur Deposition

Comparison of TOMS-AI and Surface Obs