Honduras: Vulnerability assessment vs. Vulnerability post-hoc analysis Tom Downing and Gina Ziervogel Stockholm Environment Institute

Outline Hondurus: Hurricane Mitch Vulnerability assessments Pre-disaster vulnerability assessments DIPECHO World Bank Oxfam Post-disaster assessment

Hondurus ‘Vulnerable’ country Exposure to floods and seismic activity How is its vulnerability measured? Risk mapping tools How do they compare to what actually happens?

Risk mapping Identifying vulnerable regions Regional National Local Mapping Overlaying different indicators Combining indicators to reach an index

DIPECHO with CRED and CIFEG Project aim Regional approach to disaster preparedness ‘determine risk levels in the region, taking into account natural dangers and vulnerability criteria.’

DIPECHO methods Reports CRED, CIFEG, DHA, IDNDR and other local and European universities Indicators for hazards Frequency and distribution of disasters Number of people affected Geological and climatological data Vulnerability indicators Economic loss Maps to show results

DIPECHO Risk Map

OXFAM Project aim  To develop a tool not for disaster experts but for local experts Objectives To assess risks, vulnerability and local capacity at a regional level and adapted for local-level application To develop the capacity of institutions to tackle emergency situations

OXFAM methods Analysis of threats: incidence and distribution Natural Human agency Analysis of vulnerability Relationship between level of risk, local capacities and living conditions of local communities Analysis of local capacity documented in risk map

World Bank with UNEP and CIAT Project aim To decide where mitigation and reconstruction projects should focus Methods Four layers of maps of vulnerability indices and indicators Environmental Population Social Infrastructure

World Bank Risk Map LEGEND Red = Top ten high risk municipalities Orange = Yellow = Risk Map of Honduras – Top 60 High Risk Municipalities

Hondurus: Hurricane Mitch October dead Damage primarily from landslides and flooding

Pre and post vulnerability comparison Pre-Mitch: Oxfam/World Bank Most vulnerable on west coast Post-Mitch: World Neighbors/Morris et al Most vulnerable on east coast and southern watershed

Other indicators Accessibility – World Bank Important for reaching affected Land use – World Neighbors Sustainable farms faired better Capacity Community disaster preparedness Gender Lower health and educational status Harder to recover

Lessons learned Vulnerability is a complex concept Capturing the dynamics of specific vulnerabilities is not easy Is vulnerability mapping a useful tool?