Assessment of impact, adaptation and vulnerability in North Africa AIACC Project: Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation, Trieste, Italy, 3-15 June 2002 Assessment of impact, adaptation and vulnerability in North Africa NORTH AFRICA TEAM Introduction… Where ? When ? How ?

National case studies in North Africa Where ? 75% (arid, semi arid) 87% (arid, semi arid) Tunisia Marocco Egypt 95% (arid) SETTAT Province Low and variable production Dry land agriculture Low precipitation High climate variability Drought damage High pop increase CENTER REGION Low and variable production High pop increase Dry land agriculture Low precipitation High evaporation water deficit High RR var. (30mm, 215mm) Drough may occure in 1 year out of 3 or out of 4. NILE DELTA High irrigated production Extreme urban water and land use conflicts Small holders Urban and land use water conflicts High pop increase

أهمية الزراعات المطريّة في تونس (1000 هك) 1993 Rainfed agriculture % rainfed from total زراعة مطرية/ المجموع زراعة مطرية زراعة سقوية   %97 1646 34 زراعة الحبوب %93 1835 130 الأشجار المثمرة %28 42 108 الخضر %92 285 23 مراعي Cereals FruitTrees Over 80% of total water consumption used by agricuttural activities.

تطوّر إنتاج الطماطم الفصليّة Country level: Crop responses of raiffed in Tunisia Effect of irrigation Olive trees production تطوّر إنتاج الطماطم الفصليّة

WHEN ? 3 cases studies 0-24 month 4-20 month 6-12 month 18-30 month Morocco Settat Province Tunisia Center Region Egypt Nil Delta Integration Assessment, I & V of CC in North Africa Climate / Scenarios / vulnerability Stakeholder engagement Impact Evaluation and adaptation 3 cases studies Links with others AIACC projects results 0-24 month 4-20 month 18-30 month 30 month 6-12 month WHEN ?

Crop – Climate –Impacts How ? Driving forces (Socio-economics) Current Food Security Map, GIS, Indicators RF Crop – Climate –Impacts DSSAT Id. Adaptation Options ST analysis Evaluate Options DSSAT, MCA Future Food Security Map, GIS, CC, Adapt S.H. s. Ag Other ag. (water supp.) Stakeholders (Workshop?) CC Scenarios (downscaling)

Final report (results) S.H. Example for Tunisia STs Ag. Small Farmers (80%) Extension service Regional Policy makers (CRDA) Project Decisions Technical Policy makers DGPA, UTAP, DGRE Other ag. (water supp.) Central Policy maker (Ministry of agriculture) National commissions Final report (results) Stakeholders (Workshop?) Morocco Egypt Algeria Libya Mauritania + Other AIACC projects.

Adaptation policies I Water resources management - Changing system of water delivery and control - Provide farmers with guidance on crop water management - Provide incentives to avoid excessive water use - Water mobilization - Use of new water resources (Waste water, geothermal water, saline water, drainage water…) - Increasing water use efficiency - Etc………………

Adaptation policies II Agriculture management - Crop liberalization (Egypt) - Selection of cultivars(Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco) - Planting date (Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco) - Soil mulch - Inter-cropping (Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco) - Increasing of agriculture area (Tunisia and Morocco) - Use of new techniques etc…………………

Adaptation policies III Trading - Trading intra country Trading inter regions - International trade Trade Balance Trade Imbalance

North Africa AIACC Project Outcomes Linking Stakeholders-Adaptation-Scenarios-Vulnerability: Matrix on current and future risk of adverse effects of climate Mapped index derived form a matrix that includes climate change, impacts, and adaptive capacity

MODELS: Defining key questions What components of the farming system are particularly vulnerable, and may thus require special attention? – CROP MODELS (e.g., DSSAT) Can the water/irrigation systems meet the stress of changes in water supply/demand? – IRRIGATION MODELS (e.g., CROPWAT) Will climate significantly affect national agriculture? – MODEL INTEGRATION; GIS INTEGRATION (e.g., DERIVING RESPONSE FUNCTIONS) We have to be very careful with using model in our region because of the high variability (climate, soil, farmers behaviors…)