Our Immersive Future Twelve Tech and Social Developments Worth Fighting For ImTech 2010 Los Angeles, CA John Smart, President, Acceleration Studies Foundation Slides: accelerating.org/slides.html

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2010 Accelerating.org Acceleration Studies Foundation: What We Do ▪We practice evolutionary developmental (“evo devo”) foresight, a model of change that proposes the universe contains both: 1. Contingent and unpredictable evolutionary choices that we use to create unique, informationally valuable, and creative paths (most of which will fail) and a small set of 2. Convergent and predictable developmental constraints (initial conditions, constancies) which direct certain aspects of our long-range future. ▪Some developmental trends that may be intrinsic to the future of complex systems on Earth include: – Accelerating intelligence, interdependence and immunity in our global sociotechnological systems – Increasing technological autonomy, and – Increasing intimacy of the human-machine and physical- digital interface.

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit From the Metaverse to Metahumanity: Evolutionary Development of the Web Web 1.0Read Mainly (Graphical UI) Web 2.0Read/Write/Play (Participatory, Social UI) Web 3.0Video (iTV, Geosocial Web, AR, VW, MW) Web 4.0Semantic (CI, Cyber/Lobbytwins, Valuecosm) Web 5.0Intelligent (Planetization, Global Brain, NUI ‘Tech and Social Singularity’) We are climbing the hierarchies of the web, via design, use, feedback. Edge platforms include search (Google, Bing, Wolfram Alpha), telephony (iPhone, Android, Google Voice), static and mobile social networking (Facebook, Foursquare), microblogging (Twitter), conferencing and collaboration environments (Skype, Wave, WebEx, Wikis), video (YouTube, Boxee, P2PTV), games and virtual worlds (XBox Live, Second Life), mirror worlds (Google Earth), avatars (Miis, MyCyberTwin), lifelogging (MyLifeBits), augmented reality (QR codes, Wikitude). Collectively, these are today more a story of intelligence amplification (IA, ‘Sociotech’) than of artificial intelligence (AI, ‘Infotech’). This is, by far, the largest and most meaningful complexity construction process society has ever engaged in. Smart, John et. al Metaverse Roadmap (to 2025). Metaverseroadmap.orgMetaverse Roadmap (to 2025) Web Metaverse Metahumanity Metaverseroadmap.org © 2010 Accelerating.org

Six Tech Developments Worth Fighting For

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Video Cellphone, Tablet, and Laptop © 2009 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Wearcam.org’s first-gen ‘sousveillance’ cams (2001) ‘Bracelet phone’ concept (Vodafone 2006) ‘Carpal PC’ concept (Metaverse Roadmap 2007) Flip Ultra (2007, $130) Top-selling camcorder. Necklace phone (Nokia 2004) iPhone (Apple 2007) Wearable AR and Full AR Cellphone

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Wearable LifeLog Cellphone © 2009 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2010 Accelerating.org What are the most exciting developmental uses for a tablet? #1. iTV Remote! #2. e-Reading, #3 Video, #4 Games, #5 Clipboard.  There are about 2.3 billion TVs in the world. 15,000+ streamable TV channels. Thousands more sit on the web, waiting for bandwidth. May be hundreds of thousands by  25% of US TVs sold in Jan 2010 were connected by consumers to the internet (internally or via a set top box, game console, DVD player), 40% of these were internally-enabled.  Tablet TV Remote: Voice enabled, collaborative filtering of thousands of channels, 2ndary screen, social viewing (chat, teamspeak), P2PTV, true internet television. Lenovo Ideapad U1: Best multiuse design. June 2010 Will Google get this done? A perfect YouTube front end. Apple iPad: No Apple TV. Too little, too closed. iTV (True Internet Television)

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Third-Cave, Half-Cave, Game Table, and Game Space © 2009 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Conversational Interface, Memeshows, Cybertwins, and Valuecosm DateAvg. Query Platform wordsAltavista wordsGoogle wordsGoogleHelp wordsGoogleBrain Average spoken human-to-human query length is 8-11 words. Codebreaking follows a logistic curve. Collective NLP may as well. Smart, J The Conversational Interface: Our Next Great Leap Forward.

Six Social Developments Worth Fighting For

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Better Socialization and Intimacy © 2009 Accelerating.org© 2010 Accelerating.org ▪A permanently better new primary way of interacting with our machines. ▪Start with a game (limited domain) and kids (patience for avatars of limited intelligence). ▪Once this conversational interface is server-based, it will get smarter every month. Like Google’s does now. Then every week. ▪A time when serious games can get serious. Milo and Kate, Lionhead Studios, Peter Molyneux (Proposed Dec 2010)

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Better Work and Collaboration © 2009 Accelerating.org When we have an early Metaverse 2.0, lifelogs, and pervasive broadband connectivity, we can expect… 150 (Dunbar number) of our kids most cognitively diverse (Page 2008) friends permissioned into their lifestreams, 24/7. A reputation and reciprocity collaboration system that keeps everyone contributing to the symbiont (no free riders). Powerful new group learning and expert performance, with symbionts seriously outperforming unconnected individuals. Always having 150 “lifelines” who know you, in any situation. New cultural protocols, symbionts must be temporarily turned off for job interviews, tests, private moments, etc.). Serious behavioral modification (juveniles, criminals, mentally ill) and performance enhancement. Fantastic new subcultural diversity (transhumanist symbionts, Amish symbionts, etc.) Page, Scott The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools and Societies, Princeton U. Press.The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools and Societies

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Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Better Learning and Edutainment/Serious Games © 2009 Accelerating.org What Do You Want to Improve?  IT/Infrastructure Mgmt  Identity Management  Social Networks  Video Management  Marketing  Education  Knowledge Management  Performance Management  Talent Management  Innovation  Social Responsibility  Environmental Sustainability  Organizational Development  Collective Foresight © 2010 Accelerating.org

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Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Better Decisionmaking and Self-Actualization © 2009 Accelerating.org Some Challenges - particularly early:  Data Security and Privacy  Predictive Marketing and Profiling  Debt Slavery and Overconsumption  New Forms of Crime and Fraud  Polarizing and Isolating Eco Chambers (collapse of community)  Parenting (How early can kids have CT’s?)  New Addictions and Dependencies (CT ‘relationships’?) Some Opportunities - particularly later:  Indiv. Intell./Performance Enhancement (Complete your sentences?)  Group Intelligence/Perform. Enhancement (Symbiont networks)  Subculture Diversity and Victimless Variety  Global Communication & Collaboration (no language barrier)  Digital and Educational Divides (greatly reduced)  Indiv./Group/Culture Rights Representation (‘lobby twins’)  Transparency and Accountablity of Corps, Institutions, Govts.

Closing Thoughts Slides: accelerating.org/slides.html