EC4MACS European Consortium for Modelling of Air Pollution and Climate Strategies GAINS Greenhouse Gas – Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies DG ECFIN Workshop on Energy and Climate Change Modelling Brussels, September 15, 2008 Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) The EC4MACS activities are supported by the EU-LIFE programme (

EC4MACS European Consortium for Modelling of Air Pollution and Climate Strategies Providing scientific and economic analyses for the revision of the EU Thematic Strategy on Air and European Climate Change Programme (ECCP) Improvement of existing models by including recent scientific findings Update of input data Acceptance of modelling tools and input data by stakeholders Make modelling tools available to the public over the Internet

E4MACS Partners IIASA (AT) – Coordinator, integrated assessment MNP/RIVM (NL) - Modelling of environmental impacts NTUA Athens (GR) – Energy projections, macro-economics Uni Bonn, EuroCare (DE) – Agricultural projections LUATh Thessaloniki (GR) – Transport modelling Mike Holland, AEAT, Metroeconomica (UK) – Economic benefit analysis JRC-Ispra – Global chemistry/climate models JRC-Sevilla – Global energy modelling

E4MACS Modelling tools GAINS integrated assessment model (IIASA) PRIMES energy model (NTUA) CAPRI agricultural model (UniBonn, EuroCare) EUFASOM landuse emissions model (IIASA) CCE ecosystems impact assessment (MNP) GEM-E3 general equilibrium macro-economic impacts (NTUA) TREMOVE transport model (LAUTh) Benefit assessment (MH, AEAT, MetroEconomica) TM5 Hemispheric chemical transport model (JRC-IES) POLES global energy model (JRC-IPTS)

The EC4MACS model system GAINSPOLESPRIMES CAPRI TM5EMEP CCE-CL TREMOVE BENEFITS Global/ hemispheric boundary conditions European policy drivers Energy Transport Atmosphere Agriculture Ecosystems GEM-E3 Cost- effectiveness (Macro-) economic Impacts EU-FASOM, DNDC Land use

GAINS: GHG-Air pollution Interactions and Synergies Objectives Integrated assessment of international emission control strategies: Quantification of national emission control potentials and costs For exogenous (national) projections of activities Balancing of efforts across countries/economic sectors for –different objective functions (e.g., cost effectiveness or other principles), and –different exogenous constraints (environmental objectives/total costs/carbon prices, etc.) Considering interactions between gases (GHGs and air pollutants) Taking into account co-benefits between air pollution control and GHG mitigation (for health and cost savings in air pollution control costs) For 2020/2030.

GAINS model features (1) Bottom-up analysis of 300+ mitigation options for GHGs, country-specific mitigation potentials and costs For exogenous baseline activity projections (PRIMES/POLES/national projections/IEA World Energy Outlook) Mitigation costs: International technology costs, modified by local factors For different interest rates and oil prices Least-cost optimization of mitigation measures to achieve environmental constraints Flexibility to modify energy supply structure within bounds derived from other energy models Macro-economic feedbacks of pollution control strategies can be addressed via EC4MACS linkage with PRIMES/POLES/GEM-E3

GAINS model features (2) Spatial coverage: Country-specific implementations for –Annex 1 countries: 27 EU countries, Belarus, Croatia, Norway, Switzerland, Ukraine (completed) Australia, Canada, Iceland, Japan, New Zealand, Russia, US, Turkey (end 2008) –China, India, Pakistan (completed) Includes CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, F-gases; SO 2, NO x, PM, NH 3, VOC (LULUCF under development) Implemented by –IIASA (for Europe) –TERI (for India) –ERI and Tsinghua University (for China)

Policy applications GAINS/RAINS: –Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution 2005 –National Emission Ceilings Directive 1999, 2008 –Various protocols of LRTAP Convention (1994, 1999, 2007) –Chinese national acid rain policy GAINS –Non-CO 2 cost curves for Climate and Energy Package –Co-benefits on air pollution for C&E Package, CCS paper

Analytical capabilities of GAINS of potential interest to DG-ECFIN Revenue recycling: –No Carbon leakage: –Estimates of environmental impacts Costs of alternative policy proposals: –Direct mitigation costs and environmental benefits Efficiency gains from multiple instruments: –Least-cost strategies for multiple environmental targets Ex-post analysis: –For environmental impacts Endogenous energy prices: –No

Illustrative GAINS output (1) GHG cost curves for Sweden 2020 (beyond baseline) Marginal mitigation costs Total mitigation costs Air pollutant emissions

Illustrative GAINS output (2) Mitigation measures for Sweden 2020 beyond baseline

Illustrative GAINS output (3) Data sheets on GHG mitigation potentials (for all Annex1)

Sensitivity analysis for different interest rates GHG cost curve for Sweden, %/year4%/year

Co-control of air pollution with CO 2 mitigation assuming current legislation on air pollution SO 2 NO x PM2.5 ● EU-27 ● China ● India

Health impacts from air pollution 2005

Health impacts from air pollution 2030 baseline

Health impacts from reduced air pollution due to CO 2 mitigation 2030 ● EU-27 ● China ● India

Air pollution control costs for implementation of current legislation in 2020/ health benefits as shown before!

Emission control costs to meet the EU air quality and climate targets EU-27, 2020 (Source: IIASA’s GAINS model) Business as usual National energy projections (+3% CO 2 in 2020) PRIMES energy scenario with climate measures (-20% CO 2 in 2020) €20 bn/yr

Conclusions Outlook for use by DG ECFIN EC4MACS: –Consortium of model developers, aiming at model linkages, maintenance and stakeholder acceptance –Case studies need to be run by modelling teams GAINS –Focus on international comparability of GHG mitigation strategies –Addresses multi-pollutant, multi-effects and co-benefits –But limited focus on macro-economic feedbacks –Free and open access via the Internet (gains.iiasa.ac.at)