CAAP Agricultural Policy Analysis Center - University of Tennessee Morgan Hall - Knoxville, TN phone: (865) fax: (865) Burley Tobacco Survey Burley Stabilization Corporation Annual Meeting September 14, 2006 Kelly Tiller Agricultural Policy Analysis Center The University of Tennessee

CAAP Post-Buyout Tobacco Data USDA’s National Ag Statistics Service (NASS) –Planting intentions –In-season crop production estimates (acreage, yields, production) –Marketing year acreage, yields, production, season average prices Census of Agriculture –Last in 2002, next in 2007 Company estimates and information

CAAP Change in Total Tobacco Acreage Still not back to pre- buyout acreage Burley generally down more than flue Pennsylvania up significantly Missouri above 2004 level 2004 to % -72.5% -21.7% -27.8% -3.2% 10.3% -1.3% -44.6% 97.5% -18.5% -33.9% -32.0%

CAAP Change in Total Tobacco Acreage Flue-cured states generally up Florida way down Mix in burley –Kentucky up some –Tennessee down 13% Several states no longer reported -2.0% -56.0% 12.5% 4.1% 0.8% 18.5% 22.2% -8.8% 58.0% 10.0% -12.9% 17.7% 2005 to 2006

CAAP Change in Flue-Cured Acreage 2005 to % -21.7% -0.9% -18.5% -26.1% 2004 to % 12.5% 22.0% 10.0% 21.4%

CAAP Change in Burley Acreage 2005 to to % 10.3% -14.9% -44.6% -41.7% -52.5% 4.3% 18.5% 33.3% -8.8% -17.6% 0.0% 150.0%

CAAP Change in Dark-Fired Acreage 2005 to to % 0.0% -2.1% 11.8% -11.7% 1.8%

CAAP Change in Dark Air-Cured Acreage 2005 to to % -25.9% 27.0% -11.1%

CAAP % of Respondents Growing in ‘06 Yes 47% No 53%

CAAP Respondents Growing in ‘06 47% 52%40% No Yes

CAAP Average Planted Acres

CAAP ’06 Average Acreage No 53% Yes 47%

CAAP Average Planted Acres Tennessee North Carolina Virginia

CAAP Last Year Actively Growing 3% 11% 62% 23%

CAAP 2006 Prices, Tennessee

CAAP 2006 Prices, Virginia

CAAP 2006 Prices, North Carolina

CAAP Likelihood of Producing in ‘07

CAAP Expected Acreage Changes in ‘07

CAAP Likelihood of Producing in ‘10

CAAP Likelihood of Producing in ‘15

CAAP Future Production Expectations

CAAP Importance of Financing Availability

CAAP Total Farm Acreage

CAAP Other Farm Enterprises

CAAPwww.agpolicy.org/tobsurvey.html