Linking energy and environmental changes through statistics Duncan Millard Department of Energy and Climate Change, UK IAOS Conference October 2010

CONTENT Overview Understanding the drivers of energy use Providing data to promote and support action Adapting statistics to changes in energy production and use Informing policies by understanding their implications

OVERVIEW Legally-binding domestic target to cut UK emissions by at least 34% by 2020 and at least 80% by 2050 Accept that the UK should be prepared to take on a higher 2020 target and tighter carbon budgets but that should be as part of a deal that sees the EU take on a higher 2020 target. Target of 15% of final energy consumption from renewables by 2020

UNDERSTANDING THE DRIVERS OF ENERGY USE AND EMISSIONS UK GHG emissions by gas type, 2008

UNDERSTANDING THE DRIVERS OF ENERGY USE AND EMISSIONS Final energy consumption by sector, 1970 to 2009 Total consumption little changed 1970 to 2009 Significant changes: Transport 19% in 1970, 39% in 2009; Industry 43% to 19%; Domestic 25% to 30% Traditional view shows nothing on use

Non-transport energy consumption by end use: 2008 UNDERSTANDING THE DRIVERS OF ENERGY USE AND EMISSIONS

Heat use accounts for nearly half of CO 2 emissions

Domestic final energy consumption by end use: 1970 to 2008 UNDERSTANDING THE DRIVERS OF ENERGY USE AND EMISSIONS Between 1970 and 2000 the energy use for heat increased by 30 per cent, the average annual increase was 1 per cent. In the period 2000 to 2008 the energy use for heat decreased by 8 per cent with the average annual decrease of 1 per cent. In the period 1970 to 2008 the energy use for appliances increased by 175 per cent with the average annual increase of 3 per cent.

GAS AND ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION AT LOCAL LEVEL Strong demand for local area data to support local action on reducing Worked with electricity and gas suppliers to obtain data from their administrative systems. Built up support by showing will protect individual data Annual consumption recorded by 30 million electricity meters and 25 million gas meters in GB. Electricity and gas consumption data published for Local Authorities and standard census areas for domestic and non-domestic use Data published 12 to 14 months after the year which they relate to. Individual meter data also used in aggregated form to understand impact of policies PROVIDING DATA TO PROMOTE AND SUPPORT ACTION

GAS AND ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION AT METER POINT LEVEL Meters have postcodes associated to them, so can be allocated to various geographical areas. However we cannot publish data that would be statistically disclosive. Strong response to user needs reflected in RSS award for these data e.g. In Northumberland used for profiling work, In Cornwall for deployment of renewables; In Norwich for local carbon reduction measures GeographyApprox number of homes/areas England, Wales, and Scotland – Local Authority level (LAU1, NUTS4) Homes varies, LAs in Great Britain England and Wales – MSOA Scotland – IG 2000 homes/7,000 areas En gland and Wales – LSOA (Domestic only)400 homes/34,000 areas PROVIDING DATA TO PROMOTE AND SUPPORT ACTION

Other data at local level Road Transport o Consumption of Petrol & diesel by: Cars Buses HGVs LGVs Motorcycles o Modelled for UK LAs using: CO2 emissions data Local traffic flow data Fuel consumption factors Other fuels o Covers the use of: Petroleum products Coal Manufactured solid fuels Renewables and wastes o Modelled for UK LAs using: CO2 emissions data Population Employment produced annually Data sets produced annually, between 18 and 23 months after year end as part of the UK National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory contract by AEA Energy and Environment. LA emissions data LA electricity and gas data combined with AEA data on transport and other fuels to produce LA emissions data PROVIDING DATA TO PROMOTE AND SUPPORT ACTION

ADAPTING DATA SYSTEMS - RENEWABLES Target of 15% of final energy consumption from renewables by 2020 Renewables tend to be more complex to measure (different technologies, smaller operators) Increasing importance drives need for more frequent data Multiple policy drivers all needing adaption to systems –Renewables Obligation –Feed in Tariffs (for very small scale renewables) –Renewable Heat Incentive –Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation Adapt by expanding surveys Working with regulators to design administrative systems to meet statistics needs Short term indicative indicators e.g. wind generation (collected monthly) Complexities in understanding change (e.g. diesel - renewables or recession)

Renewable electricity generation ADAPTING DATA SYSTEMS - RENEWABLES

Renewable Heat and liquid biofuels for transport ADAPTING DATA SYSTEMS - RENEWABLES

How close are we to the 2020 renewable targets? The heat and transport sectors exclude electricity used in these sectors which is included in the electricity sector. Under the provisions of the Renewable Energy Directive, the share of renewables in the transport sector is calculated in relation to total surface transport (road and rail) only, i.e. excluding aviation and shipping, but all forms of transport can count towards the target. Using this definition, the 49 TWh renewable energy from transport represents 10%. ADAPTING DATA SYSTEMS - RENEWABLES

The relationship between energy prices and fuel poverty (required energy spend for adequate heating/income) Rising Energy Prices most influential factor behind increases in fuel poverty INFORMING POLICIES BY UNDERSTANDING THEIR IMPACT

Supply side and energy costs make up largest proportion of bills. Significant investment in UK energy infrastructure adds to distribution costs, making up 15% of bills. Emission reduction policy costs represent a relatively large proportion of electricity bills (8%) and 3% of gas bills and will grow. Reflecting 2009 Prices Source: Ofgem INFORMING POLICIES BY UNDERSTANDING THEIR IMPACT

Potential increase in energy bills in 2020 Chart shows possible increase in bills as percentage of disposable income by income decline, as result of measures to reduce emissions INFORMING POLICIES BY UNDERSTANDING THEIR IMPACT

For more information and data on Energy and Climate Change Statistics in the UK see: Thank you!

CONSUMPTION OF BIODIESEL AND BIO ETHANOL IN THE UK

RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY STATISTICS

RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY INDICATORS All renewables (TWh) Total UK Generation (TWh)% RO renewables (TWh) UK electricity sales (TWh)% % % % % % %

PROGRESS AGAINST THE RENEWABLE ENERGY DIRECTIVE

Non-transport energy consumption by end use: 1990 and 2008 OVERALL ENERGY CONSUMPTION Non-transport, by end use

Energy savings due to insulation and heating efficiency improvements in GB: 1970 to 2007 DOMESTIC ENERGY CONSUMPTION Energy savings Bullets

En ergy savings due to insulation and heating efficiency improvements in GB, and internal and external temperatures: 1971 to 2007 Bullets DOMESTIC ENERGY CONSUMPTION Energy savings - households