NCEP Overview “Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin” Dr. Louis W. Uccellini National Centers for Environmental Prediction.

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Presentation transcript:

NCEP Overview “Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin” Dr. Louis W. Uccellini National Centers for Environmental Prediction Director 1 Millersville Visit November 2, 2012

2 Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products Vision: The Nation’s trusted source, first alert and preferred partner for environmental prediction services Space Weather Prediction Center NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydromet Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center National Hurricane Center Storm Prediction Center Aviation Weather Center Mission: NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy.

3

EMCWRF Developmental Test Center, NASA/ NOAA/DoD Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation CPCClimate Test Bed NHCJoint Hurricane Test Bed HPCHydrometeorological Test Bed SPCHazardous Weather Test Bed with NSSL SWPCSpace Weather Prediction Test Bed with AFWA AWCAviation Weather Test Bed OPClinked with EMC’s Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch Test Beds Service – Science Linkage with the Outside Community 4

5 What Does NCEP Do? -Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather -International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts -Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation -Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations “From the Sun to the Sea” Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts Climate Seasonal Forecasts El Nino – La Nina Forecast Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Extreme Events (Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather) Aviation Forecasts and Warnings High Seas Forecasts and Warnings 5

6 Air Quality WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF WRF: ARW, NMM, NMMB GFS, Canadian Global Model Regional NAM WRF NMMB North American Ensemble Forecast System Hurricane GFDL HWRF Global Forecast System Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT For eca st Severe Weather Rapid Refresh for Aviation Climate Forecast System Short-Range Ensemble Forecast NOAA’s Model Production Suite GFS MOM4 NOAH Sea Ice NOAH Land Surface Model Coupled Global Data Assimilation Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III NAM/CMAQ 6 Regional DA Satellites + Radar 99.9% ~2B Obs/Day NOS – OFS Great Lakes Northern Gulf of Mex Columbia R. Bays Chesapeake Tampa Delaware Space Weather ENLIL Regional DA

2011 Computing Capability “reliable, timely and accurate” Web access to models as they run on the CCS Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page Current computers –IBM Power6 –73.1 trillion calculations/sec –2 billion observations/day –27.8 million model fields/day –Primary: Gaithersburg, MD –Backup: Fairmont, WV –Guaranteed switchover in 15 minutes Next generation computer: by Oct 2013 –IBM iDataPlex Intel/Linux –208 trillion calc/sec –Primary: Reston, VA –Backup: Orlando, FL 7

8 Hurricane Sandy

Forecasts Provided by Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Valid 12Z October 29, 2012 Surface Analysis Seven day forecast

Forecasts Provided by Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Valid 12Z October 29, 2012 Surface Analysis Six day forecast

Forecasts Provided by Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Valid 12Z October 29, 2012 Surface Analysis Five day forecast

Forecasts Provided by Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Valid 12Z October 29, 2012 Surface Analysis Four day forecast

Forecasts Provided by Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Valid 12Z October 29, 2012 Surface Analysis Three day forecast

Forecasts Provided by Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Valid 12Z October 29, 2012 Surface Analysis Two day forecast

Forecasts Provided by Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Valid 12Z October 29, 2012 Surface Analysis One day forecast

Official 5 – day Track Forecast from 8AM, Saturday, October 27, 2012

Official 5 – day Track Forecast from 8AM, Sunday, October 28, 2012

Wave Watch III model output valid 8PM Mon Oct hour Wave height forecast (ft)

72 hour Precipitation Forecast: 8AM Saturday Oct 27 – 8AM Tuesday Oct 30 Issued 6AM, Sat Oct 27, 2012

Probability of 48 hour snowfall > 12 inches Issued 2PM, Saturday, Oct 27, 2012 Valid 8PM, Sunday Oct 28 – 8PM Tuesday Oct 30 3 day Snow Accumulation (inches) Issued 2PM, Saturday, Oct 27, 2012 Valid 8PM Saturday Oct 28 – 8PM Tuesday Oct 30

Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System (ESTOFS) Total Water Level (feet) 30 hour forecast Initial time: 2PM Sunday, Oct 28 Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System (ESTOFS) Storm Surge relative to MSL(feet) 30 hour forecast Initial time: 2PM Sunday, Oct 28

ESTOFS Surge Guidance