The External Environment for Developing Countries October 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group

The DOW regains 10,000 Source: Thomson/Datastrea m.

Source: JPMorgan-Chase. Nominal effective rate [NEER] Dollar declines imply a return to pre-crisis levels of the effective exchange rate Indices, 2000=100. Real effective rate [REER] Neer 87.1Neer 85.5

Industrial countries

U.S. retail sales shows some underlying strength as auto incentives pass retail sales (total and ex autos) growth (saar) [L]; change in employment (‘000, 3mma) [R] Source: U.S. Departments of Commerce and Labor. Retail x autos [L] Change in employ [R] Retail sales total [L]

A revival in both domestic and foreign demand is coming to support output growth export volumes, capital goods orders ch% (saar) [L]; IP mfgr ch% (saar) [R] Source: Department of Commerce and Federal Reserve System. Capital goods orders [L] IP manufacuring [R] Export volumes [L]

Source: Treasury, OMB and CBO. U.S. spending up 17.8%, receipts down 16.6% yields fiscal deficit of about 10% of GDP acutal FY 2008 and preliminary FY 2009 federal budget accounts ($trillion) Deficit: $459 billion, 3.2% GDP Deficit: $1,409 billion, 9.9% GDP

A change in sentiment toward stronger growth in Japan? household spending and wages, ch% (y/y) [L]; Tokyo consumer sentiment [R] Source: Japan Cabinet Office. Consumer confidence [R] Wages, growth y/y [L] Household expenditure [L]

Japan’s orders-, exports and production take another leg up during August core machinery orders, export volumes and mfgr output, ch% saar Source: Bank of Japan and Japan Cabinet Office. Production Core machinery orders Goods export volumes

Deflation continues in Japan Headline, core CPI and Corp gds prices, ch% (y/y) Source: Japan Cabinet Office.

Euro Area production moves sharply higher in August– due in part to auto incentives manufacturing output, ch% (saar) Germany Source: Eurostat. Euro Area Italy France

Household spending remains weak as unemployment continues to mount Euro Area unemployment rate (%) [L] and retail volume growth (y/y) [R] Source: EUROSTAT. Italy [R] France [R] Germany sales [R] EA unemployment rate [L]

Euro appreciation may come to affect export prospects euro cross exchange rates for select trade partners (LCU per euro) Source: Thomson/Datastream and DECPG.

Industrial production

East Asia’s production rebound is moderating percent change, 3m/3m saar World East Asia and Pacific Source: World Bank, DEC Prospects Group

High income country developments driving the global IP cycle Source: World Bank, DEC Prospects Group. contributions to global IP growth (% q-o-q)

IP remains below pre-crisis peaks except in East- and South Asia pre-crisis peak = 100 Source: World Bank, DEC Prospects Group

International trade

U.S. trade deficit shrinks as personal savings rate rises from record lows Trade balance $ bn [R]; Personal savings as a percent of disposable income [L] Source: U.S. Department of Commerce. Trade balance [R] Personal Savings rate [L]

Source: Haver Analytics. Investment-driven imports by China poised to slow gross fixed capital formation [R]; Imports excl oil [L] %chg saar

Emerging Asia leads import recovery Total import volumes, 3mma seasonally adjusted annualized % change Source: World Bank, DEC Prospects Group. East Asia including China East Asia excl. China

Oil prices

Oil prices and OECD oil stocks $/ bbl million bbl Oil price [L scale] OECD stocks [R] Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group.

World Oil Consumption Growth mb/d Source: IEA.

OPEC Spare Capacity (mb/d) Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group.

Non-oil commodity prices

Fats & Oils, and grains off in October (2000=100) Source: DECPG Commodities Group.

Copper stocks and prices $/ton‘000 tons Copper price LME stocks Source: LME and DECPG Commodities Group.

Freight rates fall on weaker demand and increases in new vessel capacity Baltic dry freight index Source: Datastream and DECPG Commodities Group.

International Finance

A substantial pickup in flows in September Source: DECPG Finance Team.

Corporates regain lead in EM bond activity billions US dollars Source: World Bank, DEC Prospects Group

EM IPO activity regains momentum Source: DECPG, Finance Team. Capital raised [Bars, left] Number of deals [Line, right]

Currencies

Source: Thomson/Datastrea m. yen/U SD USD/Euro (inverse) Dollar’s fall picks up in September and October USD per Euro (inverse) [Left] and Yen per USD [right]

Source: JPMorgan-Chase. Nominal effective rate [NEER] Dollar declines imply a return to pre-crisis levels of the effective exchange rate Indices, 2000=100. Real effective rate [REER] Neer 87.1Neer 85.5

Purchases of U.S. Treasuries by foreign official sector easing– private demand mixed billions US dollars Source: U.S. Treasury.

The External Environment for Developing Countries October 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group