China: Today, Tomorrow and the Transition Kenneth W. Hunter Maryland China Initiative, University of Maryland

 What is China  China and Our Common Global Agenda: Looking to 2013 and Beyond  China components of your alternative scenarios and plans

What is China?  What westerners see as tourists and observers vs. the big, diverse and intense China we experience  China by the maps  China by the numbers  Chinese and American traditions and temperament

Ken as tourist

What tourists and observers see

China for tourists and observers: the Sichuan earthquake

Experiencing China today  Big  Diverse  Intense

Big, diverse and intense: massive industrial operations

Big, diverse and intense: coal powered

Big, diverse and intense: largest car market

Big, diverse and intense: more cars

Big, diverse and intense: construction everywhere

Big, diverse and intense: more construction

Big, diverse and intense: massive cement operations

Big, diverse and intense: small farm agriculture

Big, diverse and intense: more farms

Big, diverse and intense: water

Big, diverse and intense: massive production facilities

Big, diverse and intense: worker protests

Big, diverse and intense: Massive Factory “Towns”

Big, diverse and intense: massive rail system development

Big, diverse and intense: massive port operations

Big, diverse and intense: shipping around the world

Big, diverse and intense: industrial and research parks

Big, diverse and intense: new environmental technology industry

Big, diverse and intense: more environmental industry

Big, diverse and intense: retailing is taking off

Big, diverse and intense: development of the professions -- IT

Big, diverse and intense: development of the professions -- finance

Big, diverse and intense: development of investment markets

Big, diverse and intense: huge reserves and currency pegged to dollar

Big, diverse and intense: military development

Big, diverse and intense: civilian aircraft development

China by the maps Make sure you are using the correct maps!

China by the maps: The World as Seen from America

China by the maps: Great River Systems

China by the maps: borders

China by the maps: Asia as Seen from Asia

China by the numbers

China by the numbers: Population Populations1.3 billion Rate of change0.5 Gender disparity115 males to 100 females Civilian labor force800 million Labor force distribution: Agriculture40 percent Mfg, mining, utilities, const.27 Services33

China by the numbers: Production GDP (PPP)$10 trillion GDP per capita (PPP)$7,500 Annual growth rate8 to 12 percent Origin of GDP: Agriculture11 percent Mfg, mining, utilities, const.49 percent Services40 percent

China by the numbers: foreign trade Exports: percent of GDP33 percent Imports: percent of GDP26 percent Major exports: Telecommunications equipment13 percent Computers11 Electrical and semiconductors11 Clothing 9

China by the numbers: foreign trade Imports: percent of GDP26 percent Major imports: Electrical and semiconductors20 Petroleum and products15 Iron and steel 9 Professional instruments 6

China by the numbers: foreign trade

China by the numbers: Reserves and Currency Value Foreign Exchange Reserves$2,850 billion Renminbi per dollar: 2005 and earlier Today6.6 Resumed gradual appreciation in June 2010

China and U.S. traditions and temperaments Chinese traditions and temperament 2,500 + years And United States traditions and temperament 250+ years

China and U.S. traditions and temperaments A basis for Convergence, Co-evolution or Conflict through the 21 st Century?

China and U.S. traditions and temperaments A basis for Convergence, Co-evolution or Conflict through the 21 st Century?

China and Our Common Global Agenda The Questions You Should Be Asking

China Component of Alternative Scenarios Ken’s Patterns of Change and Leadership and Luck Matrix

China baseline scenario theme: cautiously optimistic Barring bad luck and bad leadership, China will complete its modernization to catch up and regain a leadership position in the world in the next few decades in a process of co-evolution with the West. Today all of the key elements of that modernization are mid- way (1979 to 2040) but have significant momentum:

China baseline scenario theme: cautiously optimistic  Moving all China’s people out of poverty  Industrialization and urbanization within climate change limits on a per capita basis  Science and technology up to date in application with a few innovations  Governance institutions with high competence and much improved ethics but still as a one party system  Regional political, economic and security relationships stabilized but still stressed over water and supply chain protection  International relationships and participation on a basis of mutual respect and collaboration where needed

China baseline scenario theme: cautiously optimistic The question: Does China have the momentum, capacity and resilience to survive the next globally cascading crisis and remain in a leadership position?

China baseline scenario theme: cautiously optimistic If yes, China will participate in shaping the post-crisis global institutions, which will involve confronting complexity while modernizing, streamlining and rebalancing our institutions.

China baseline scenario theme: cautiously optimistic If China fails, all the world will have a very large problem to deal with and the next global crisis likely will be very deep and very long in duration.

Questions Kenneth W. Hunter Senior Fellow Maryland China Initiative University of Maryland Tel: or