The Implications of Demographic Change for Transportation in Texas The Future - The Implications of Demographic Change for Transportation in Texas Michael E. Cline, Ph.D. Associate Director, Hobby Center for the Study of Texas Rice University May 21, 2014 Austin, TX

Percentage Change in Population and Licensed Drivers in Texas by Decade, 1950-2010

Change in Licensed Drivers Per 1,000 Population, 1950-2010

Change in Population and Licensed Drivers, 1950-2010 Year   Number Percent Change from Previous Time Licensed Drivers Per 1,000 Population Population Drivers Percent Change 1950 7,711,194 2,796,862 -- 362.7 1960 9,579,677 4,352,168 24.2 55.6 454.3 25.3 1970 11,196,730 6,380,057 16.9 46.6 569.8 25.4 1980 14,229,191 9,287,826 27.1 45.6 652.7 14.6 1990 16,986,510 11,136,694 19.4 19.9 655.6 0.4 2000 20,851,820 13,462,023 22.8 20.9 645.6 -1.5 2010 25,145,561 15,157,650 20.6 12.6 602.8 -6.6 Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Office of Highway Policy Information, Highway Statistics Series; and U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses.

Percentage Change in Licensed Drivers in Texas by Age, 1990-2010

Average Yearly Vehicle Miles Traveled in 2009 by Race/Ethnicity of Texas Driver   Average VMT Race/Ethnicity Yearly Daily NH White 14,518 39.8 NH Black 13,778 37.7 Hispanic 12,205 33.4 NH Asian & Other 12,109 33.2 Total 13,716 37.6 Source: U.S. Dept. of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, 2009 National Household Travel Survey, 2011.

Population, Licenses Drivers, Yearly Vehicle Miles of Travel, and Road Miles Needed, 2010-2050   Drivers Per 1,000 Population Yearly Vehicle Miles of Travel Additional Road Miles Needed Year Population Drivers Per Driver Total (in Billions) 2010 25,145,561 15,157,650 602.8 13,475 204.2 - 2020 30,583,311 18,625,949 609.0 13,075 243.5 71,218 2030 37,282,785 22,708,486 609.1 12,688 288.1 155,050 2040 45,316,711 27,403,007 604.7 12,446 341.1 251,448 2050 55,205,530 33,261,797 602.5 12,276 408.3 371,753 Source: Projections by the authors; and 2010 driver estimates and rates derived from U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Highway Statistics Series, 2009, 2010, and 2011; and U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, National Household Travel Survey 2009; U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Office of Highway Policy Information, Highway Statistics Series, Highway Statistics 2011.

Drivers, Vehicle Ownership, and Commute Mode in 2050 Using Alternative Rate Assumptions Factor Current Rates NH White Rates Difference Drivers 33,261,797 36,811,415 -3,549,618 Vehicle Miles Traveled Yearly Aggregate (Billions) 408.3 518.6 -110.3 Yearly Per Driver 12,276 14,088 -1,812 Daily Per Driver 33.6 38.6 -5.0 Zero Vehicle Households 561,201 229,062 332,139 Commuters 23,330,819 23,853,603 -522,784 Driving Alone 18,252,935 19,752,154 -1,499,219 Carpooling 3,026,020 1,988,859 1,037,161 Riding Public Transit 413,371 199,722 213,649 Percent Commuters Using: 78.2 82.8 -4.6 13.0 8.3 4.7 1.8 0.8 1.0

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Happy Trails to You! Mike Cline Associate Director, Hobby Center for the Study of Texas For copies of the presentation and additional data for your area go to: http://hobbycenter.rice.edu Phone: 713-348-5396 E-mail: mec6@rice.edu