The GAINS model

Rationale Air pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHGs) often stem from the same sources Energy consumption and agricultural activities contribute large proportions to total emissions Changes in energy consumption and agricultural activities patterns can influence emissions of both air pollutants and GHGs There are physical and economic interactions between control measures

GAINS: GHG-Air pollution INteractions and Synergies Extension of the RAINS integrated assessment model for air pollution to GHGs SO 2, NO x, VOC, NH 3, PM and CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, HFC, CFC, SF 6 First implementation for Europe completed, work on China and India underway, feasibility study for Latin America completed. GHG emissions consistent with UNFCCC, GHG cost data from reviewed literature, air pollution and cost data reviewed by European stakeholders

Common issues for emission control strategies for air pollution and greenhouse gases Measures with simultaneous impacts on GHG and air pollutant emissions –Synergies from efficiency improvements, increased use of natural gas, agricultural measures, etc. –Renewables –Trade-offs for desulfurization, technology lock-in, etc. Bio-fuels –Combustion in small sources increases PM and thus causes negative health impacts –Radiative forcing of incomplete combustion products (VOC and PM) could compensate effects of C reduction Diesel –Health impacts of PM, radiative impacts of black carbon Methane reductions –Yield multiple benefits on radiative forcing and ozone

The GAINS model: The RAINS multi-pollutant/ multi-effect framework extended to GHGs PMSO 2 NO x VOCNH 3 Health impacts: PM  O 3  Vegetation damage: O 3  Acidification  Eutrophication  Economic synergies between emission control measures Multiple benefits PMSO 2 NO x VOCNH 3 CO 2 CH 4 N2ON2O CFCs HFCs SF 6 Health impacts: PM  O 3  Vegetation damage: O 3  Acidification  Eutrophication  Radiative forcing: - direct  - via aerosols  - via OH  Physical interactions

Emission control options considered in GAINS with country/region-specific application potentials and costs CO 2 : 162 options for power plants, transport, industry, domestic CH 4 : 28 options for the gas sector, waste management, enteric fermentation, manure management, coal mines, rice paddies N 2 O : 18 options for arable land and grassland, industry, combustion, health care, waste treatment F-gases : 22 options for refrigeration, mobile and stationary air conditioning, HCFC22 production, primary aluminum production, semiconductor industry and other sectors Air pollutants : ~1500 options for SO 2, NO x, VOC, NH 3, PM

Main mitigation options for CO options considered in GAINS Power plants –Fuels shift to natural gas and renewables –Co-generation –IGCC + carbon capture Transport –More efficient vehicles (hybrid cars) –Alternative fuels (ethanol, gas, biodiesel, hydrogen) Industry –End-use savings –Fuel shifts Domestic –Insulation –Solar, biomass –Fuel shift to natural gas

Main mitigation options for CH 4 28 options considered in GAINS Gas sector –Reduced leakages during gas transmission and distribution –Flaring instead of venting Waste management –Recycling/composting of biodegradable waste instead of landfill –Methane recovery from landfills Enteric fermentation –Dietary changes for cattle coupled with livestock reductions Manure management –Anaerobic digestion plants and stable adaptation Coal mines –Upgraded gas recovery in coal mines Rice paddies –Modified rice strains

Main mitigation options for N 2 O 18 options considered in GAINS Arable land and grassland –Reduced fertilizer application –Optimal timing of fertilizer application –Nitrification inhibitors –Precision farming –Less use of histosols (peat soils) Industry –Emission controls in adipic acid and nitric acid industry Combustion –Modified fluidized bed combustion Health care –Reduced N 2 O use Waste treatment –Optimized waste water treatment

Main mitigation options for F-gases 22 options considered in GAINS Refrigeration (domestic, commercial, transport and industrial) –Recollection, alternative refrigerants and good practice Mobile and stationary air conditioning –Alternative refrigerants, process modifications, good practice HCFC22 production –Incineration Primary aluminum production –Conversion to other processes Semiconductor industry –Limited PFC use through alternative processes Other sectors –SO 2 cover for magnesium production –Good practice for gas insulated switchgears –Alternative propellants for foams and aerosols –End of life recollection of SF 6

RAINS optimization: –Decide how far to move up the cost curve (keep underlying activity fix!) –Exclude multi-pollutant technologies GAINS optimization –Decide which technology to use (incl. multi-pollutant) –If cost-effective and possible, change the underlying activity (through e.g. efficiency improvement) Differences between GAINS and RAINS in the optimization (technology representation)

Objective function: Minimization of total emission control costs C for add-on measures (x) and structural changes (y): Application levels (x) and substitution potentials (y) are constrained: Emissions are calculated from activity levels and emission factors: Sectoral emissions of current legislation may not increase: Activity levels plus substitution levels must remain constant to satisfy demand: The GAINS optimization in brief

Multi-pollutant measures (1) Structural measures: –Energy savings, efficiency improvements, bans: all pollutants ↓ –Increased use of natural gas: CO 2, SO 2, VOC, NO x, PM ↓ CH 4 ↑ –Biomass: CO 2 ↓ VOC, PM, CH 4 ↑ Stationary sources: –SCR, SNCR: NO x, CO ↓, NH 3, N 2 O ↑ –Fluidized bed combustion: SO 2, NO x ↓, N 2 O ↑ –Advanced residential combustion: VOC, PM, CO, CH 4 ↓ –FGD: SO 2, PM ↓ CO 2 ↑ –IGCC: CO 2, SO 2, NO x, PM ↓ –CHP: all pollutants ↓ Mobile sources: –Euro-standards: NO x, VOC, PM, CO ↓ NH 3, N 2 O ↑ –Low sulfur fuels: SO 2, PM ↓ –Diesel: CO 2, VOC ↓, PM, NO x, SO 2 ↑

Multi-pollutant measures (2) Agricultural sources: –Low emission pig housing – NH 3, CH 4 ↓ N 2 O ↑ –Covered storage of slurry – NH 3 ↓ CH 4 ↑ –Injection of manure – NH 3 ↓ N 2 O ↑ –Anaerobic digestion (biogas) – CH 4, N 2 O ↓ CO 2 ↑ NH 3 ↓ ↑ Other sources –Gas recovery and flaring: CH 4 ↓ CO 2, PM, VOC, SO 2, NO x, CO ↑ –Gas recovery and re-use: CH 4 ↓ CO 2 ↑ –Improving flaring efficiency: PM, VOC, NO x, SO 2, CO ↓ –Waste incineration: CH 4 ↓ CO 2 ↑ –Gas recovery from wastewater treatment: CH 4 ↓ CO 2 ↑ In total approx 500 measures with multi-pollutant impacts considered in GAINS

Air pollutant emissions as a function of CO 2 mitigation (EU-25, 2020)

Net costs for further air pollution control as a function of CO 2 mitigation (EU-25, 2020) - Sequential approach Sequential approach: Climate policy first – then air pollution control on the resulting energy pattern Baseline Ambition level of Thematic Strategy

Cost savings from an integrated approach Provisional GAINS estimates, EU-25, 2020 Integrated approach: Joint optimization of GHG and air pollution control Baseline Ambition level of Thematic Strategy

Plans for further work on GAINS Improved interface between PRIMES and GAINS Improved representation of the nitrogen cycle Including the role of agricultural policies as “surface response” representation of selected CAPRI scenarios Quantification of radiatiave forcing (of aerosols) Simulation of economic instruments Extension to Asia and other regions