Disruptive Demographics: Challenges and Opportunities for the Philanthropic Community October 2012

OVERVIEW Demographic Trends Challenges & Opportunities Discussion October 20122

what October 2012 CENSUS 2010 will REVEAL October 20123

6 DISRUPTIVE TRENDS The South Rises – Again The Browning of America Marrying Out is “In” The Silver Tsunami is About Hit The End of Men? Cooling Water from Grandma’s Well… and Grandpa’s Too! October 20124

The South Continues To Rise The South Continues To Rise...Again! October 20125

South’s Share of U.S. Net Population Growth, Selected Years, YearsU.S. Absolute Population Change South’s Absolute Population Change South’s Share of Change ,974,129 8,468,30327% ,123,138 9,339,45533% ,886,12815,598,27930% ,497,94722,650,56350% ,035,66529,104,81449%

U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY REGION, Region 2010 Population Absolute Population Change, Percent Population Change, U.S.309,050,81626,884,9729.5% Northeast55,417,3111,753,9783.3% Midwest66,972,8872,480,9983.0% South114,555,74414,318, % West72,256,1838,774, % North Carolina9,535,4831,486, %

SHARES OF NET POPULATION GROWTH BY REGION, Region Absolute Population ChangePercent of Total UNITED STATES26,884, NORTHEAST1,753, MIDWEST2,480, SOUTH14,318, WEST8,774,

NET MIGRATION TRENDS, NortheastMidwestSouthWest Total-1,032-2,008+2, Black Hispanic Elderly Foreign born October = Net Import= Net Export

GROSS AND NET MIGRATION FOR THE SOUTH, The Region DomesticForeign YearsInOutNetInOutNet ,125,0963,470,431654,665268,619132,382136, ,874,4143,477,899396,525232,501132,201100,300 Florida DomesticForeign YearsInOutNetInOutNet ,053630,051182,00241,74524,10817, ,931668,087-13,15633,09532,0941,001

State Share of South’s Net Growth, Region/StateAbsolute ChangeState’s Share The South14,318, % Texas 4,293, % Florida 2,818, % Georgia 1,501, % North Carolina 1,486, % Other Southern States 4,218, % October

THE “BROWNING” OF AMERICA October

THE NUMBERS Legal Immigrants: : 206,000 annually : 561,000 annually : 800,654 annually : 879,400 annually : 1,137,000 annually Refugees, Parolees, Asylees : 2.1 million (65,000 annually) : 428,361 (85,672 annually) : 487,386 (81,231 annually) : 203,642 (75,661 annually) Illegal Immigrants: 300,000 to 400,000 annually over the past two decades Three million granted amnesty in million illegal immigrants remained in U.S. after 1986 reforms October 1996: INS estimated that there were 5 million illegal immigrants in the U.S. August 2005: Illegal population range from 7 to 15 million.

NON-IMMIGRANTS ADMITTED TO UNITED STATES, SELECTED YEARS, YearAll ClassesExchange Visitors Academic & Vocational Students ,756,903108,023 (1%)271,861 (2%) 19859,539,880141,213 (1%)285,496 (3%) ,574,055214,644 (1%)355,207 (2%) ,640,540241,364 (1%)395,480 (2%) ,690,082351,743 (1%)699,953 (2%) ,824,088389,435 (1%)741,921 (2%) ,907,139370,176 (1%)687,506 (2%) ,781,330360,777(1%)656,373(2%) ,381,928506,138 (1%)917,373(2%)

IMMIGRATION POPULATION, Source: Center for Immigration Studies; U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey

U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY RACE & ETHNICITY, Race 2009 Population Absolute Change 2000 – 2009 Percentage Change Total307,806,55024,834, Non-Hispanic258,587,22612,057, White199,851,2404,088, Black37,681,5443,276, AI/AN2,360,807256, Asian Asian13,686,0833,233, NH/PI NH/PI448,51079, or More Races 2 or More Races4,559,0421,123, Hispanic48,419,32412,776, October

SHARES OF NET POPULATION GROWTH, Race Absolute Change Percent of Total Total24,834, Non-Hispanic12,057, White4,088, Black3,276, American Indian256, Asian Asian3,233, Native Hawaiian Native Hawaiian79, Two or More Races Two or More Races1,123, Hispanic12,776, October

MEDIAN AGE OF U.S. POPULATION BY RACE, HISPANIC ORIGIN & GENDER, 2009 RaceTotalMaleFemale United States White Alone White, Non-Hispanic Black Alone AI/AN Alone Asian Alone NH/PI Alone Two or More Races Hispanic October

TOTAL FERTILITY RATES OF U.S. WOMEN BY RACE/ETHNICITY, 2007 Race/EthnicityTotal Fertility Rate Hispanic2.99 Non-Hispanic White1.87 Blacks2.13 Asian2.04 Native American1.86 October Source: Johnson and Lichter (2010)

RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. BIRTHS BY RACE / ETHNICITY Race/Ethnicity White66%50%49.6% Blacks17%16%15.0% Hispanics15%26%26.0% Other2%8%9.4% Source: Johnson and Lichter (2010); Tavernise (2011).

RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. POPULATION BY RACE / ETHNICITY Race/Ethnicity White67%47% Blacks12.8%13% Hispanics14%29% Asian5%9% October Source: Pew Research Center, 2008 *projected.

is “In” Marrying Out October

INTERMARRIAGE TREND, % Married Someone of a Different Race/Ethnicity October

EDUCATION & INTERMARRIAGE % of Newlyweds Who Married Someone of a Different Race/Ethnicity, 2008 October

INTERMARRIAGE TYPES Newly Married Couples in 2008 October

INTERMARRIAGE RATES BY RACE & ETHNICITY % of Newlyweds Who Married Someone of a Different Race/Ethnicity, 2008 October

THE SILVER TSUNAMI October

U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY AGE, Age2009 Absolute Change Percentage Change <25104,960,2505,258, ,096,278-1,898, ,379,43916,977, ,570,5904,496, TOTAL307,006,55024,834, October

U.S. POPULATION TURNING 50, 55, 62, AND 65 YEARS OF AGE, ( ) Age 50 Age 55 Age 62 Age 65 Average Number/Day12,34411,5419,2218,032 Average Number/Minute October

THE GREYING OF AMERICA U.S. Census Projections October

ABSOLUTE AND PERCENT CHANGE IN U.S. POPULATION BY AGE Age % Change Total October

OLDER WORKERS IN U.S. WORKFORCE YEAR Age 65 or Older Age 75 or Older %4.7% %7.3% October

DEPENDENCY RATIOS IN THE AMERICAN SOUTH Source: Census 2010

DEPENDENCY RATES FOR SELECTED SOUTHERN STATES, Dependency Rate Georgia 67.4 Counties with Population Decline (31)100.4 Counties Growing % (44)75.2 Counties Growing 10% or more (84)62.6 Dependency Rate North Carolina 68.7 Tier Tier Tier Dependency Rate Alabama Counties with Greatest % Loss Counties with Greatest % Gain 67.1

The End of Men? October

FEMALE WORKFORCE REPRESENTATION October

The Plight of Men Today, three times as many men of working age do not work at all compared to Selective male withdrawal from labor market—rising non- employment due largely to skills mismatches, disabilities & incarceration. The percentage of prime-aged men receiving disability insurance doubled between 1970 (2.4%) and 2009 (4.8%). Since 1969 median wage of the American male has declined by almost $13,000 after accounting for inflation. After peaking in 1977, male college completion rates have barely changed over the past 35 years.

COLLEGE CLASS OF 2010 DEGREEMALEFEMALEDIFFERENCE Associate’s293,000486,000193,000 Bachelor’s702,000946,000244,000 Master’s257,000391,000134,000 Professional46,80046, Doctor’s31,50032,9001,400 TOTAL1,330,3001,902,300572,000 October

October

Jobs Lost/Gained by Gender During 2007 (Q4) – 2009 (Q3) Recession IndustryWomenMen Construction -106,000-1,300,000 Manufacturing -106,000-1,900,000 Healthcare +451, ,100 Government +176, ,000 Total-1,700,000-4,700,000 October

Cooling Waters From Grandma’s Well And Grandpa’s Too! October

Children Living in Non-Grandparent and Grandparent Households, Household TypeAbsolute Number 2010 Absolute Change Percent Change All74,7182, No Grandparents67, Both Grandparents 2, Grandmother Only 1, Grandfather Only October

Children Living in Non-Grandparent and Grandparent-Headed Households by Presence of Parents, 2010 Household Type All Children (in thousands) Living with Both Parents Living with Mother Only Living with Father Only Living with Neither parent All74, %23.1%3.4%4.0% No Grandparents 67, %21.2%3.3%2.1% Both Grandparents 2, %40.6%5.2%36.1% Grandmother Only 1, %48.4%4.5%33.2% Grandfather Only %45.9%4.4%23.6% October

...but Challenges Abound DIVERSITY RULES October

October

...but insufficient...but insufficient Education is Necessary October

AVERAGE SHARE OF LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT BY EDUCATION Education % Change Less Than High School24.7%23.7% High School Graduate40.6%34.3%-6.3 Some College20.7%24.4%3.7 Bachelor’s Degree or More 14.0%17.6%3.6 October

AVERAGE SHARE OF LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT BY OCCUPATION Occupation % Change Blue Collar40.5%31.6%-8.9 Service Occupation14.3%16.7%2.4 White Collar38.5%44.4%5.9 October

THE LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYED, 2009 PROFESSION % OF ALL JOBLESS WORKERS Architecture & Engineering41.2 Management39.0 Community & Social Services Occupations36.1 Installation, Maintenance & Repair Work34.9 Production Occupations33.4 October

THE COMPETITIVE TOOL KIT Analytical Reasoning Entrepreneurial Acumen Contextual Intelligence Soft Skills/Cultural Elasticity Agility and Flexibility

Moving Forward Rebrand communities as a sustainable place to live and do business Improve Male Education Outcomes Augment efforts to recruit plants with strategies to recruit people Embrace immigrants Recognize business development & job creation potential of elder care economy, diverse ethnic markets, & nascent freelance economy.

Implications for Workforce Planning and Development Managing transition from the “graying” to the “browning” of America. Competition for talent will be fierce – and global. Successful recruitment and retention will hinge on your ability to effectively manage the full nexus of “diversity” issues. October

Implications for Workforce Planning and Development Managing transition from the “graying” to the “browning” of America. Competition for talent will be fierce – and global. Successful recruitment and retention will hinge on your ability to effectively manage the full nexus of “diversity” issues. October

IMPLICATIONS FOR BUSINESS Emergence of global care economy Adjustments for aging consumers Succession Planning Female-Dominated Labor Force and Leadership Free Agency Rules January

The Elder Care Economy October

Age-Related Challenges Mobility Limitations Hearing Loss Vision Impairments Mental Disorders Substance Abuse Issues Chronic Disabilities Economic Constraints

The Triple Whammy Aging Boomers Face Mortality Elder Care Responsibilities Raising Grandchildren

OPPORTUNITIES Cater products & Labeling to emerging Groups Design & package products with equality in mind January

LABELING & PACKAGING Easy to Read Easy to Understand Easy to Carry Easy to Enjoy Safer to Use January

DEFINITION OF EASY TO CARRY: CURRENT VS. FUTURE Current PopulationFuture Grey Population Bulky and HeavyMinimal Unit Size and Weight Big-sized cart, shopping cart, car trunkCompact car, Rolling carriage Price SensitiveWeight Sensitive Aesthetics Is More ImportantFunction Is More Important Mostly carry with one handHandle with both hands January

SMART SLIPPERS

GLOWCAPS

SENIOR PLAYGROUNDS

The Freelance Economy October

DRIVERS Broadband Technology Cloud Computing Other Technological Innovations Disruptive Demographics Global Economic Recession

The Online Market Place Guru.com Elance.com Odesk.com Freelancer.com September

The Freelancer Economy—Technology Websites & Ecommerce (42,084) Programming and Databases (47,749) Engineering & CAD (10,463) Networking & Telephone Systems (10, 154) ERP & CRM (2,288) September

The Freelancer Economy—Creative Arts Graphic Design & Multimedia (32,289) Writing, Editing, & Translation (45,510) Illustration & Art (11,451) Photography & Videography (7,399) Fashion & Interior Designs (2,746) Broadcasting (4,806) September

The Freelancers Economy—Business Administrative Support (36,504) Marketing & Communications (8,187) Sales & Telemarketing (4,167) Business Consulting (11,887) Legal (2,567) Finance & Accounting (4,657) September

Top Freelancer Locations United States (200,619)Australia (3,307) India (60,212)Bangladesh (2,694) United Kingdom (10,387)Romania (2,494) Canada (9,133)Indonesia (2,332) Pakistan (7,731)Russian Federation (2,223) Philippines (5,221)Uruguay (1,847) September

DISTRIBUTION OF FREELANCE ENTREPRENEURS

Freelancers within 30 mile radius of Zip: (N= 1,578) Programming & Databases (287) Illustration & Art (50) Writing, Editing & Translation (281) Photography & Videography (41) Administrative Support (217)Sales & Marketing (26) Website & Ecommerce (153)Broadcasting (25) Graphic Design & Multimedia (148) Finance & Accounting (22) Business Consulting (101)Legal (18) Networking & Telephone Systems (76) ERP & CRM (14) Engineering & CAD (57)Fashion & Interior Design (8) Marketing & Communications (54) 75

THE END

October