Population Chapter 2

Humans are not evenly distributed across the Earth. Humans are not evenly distributed across the Earth. To Understand Population distribution To Understand Population distribution –Concentration –Density

What Similarities do these regions have? Close to water – ocean or river Close to water – ocean or river –2/3’s live within 300 miles of an ocean –4/5’s live within 500 miles of an ocean Low-lying areas with fertile soil. Low-lying areas with fertile soil. Northern Hemisphere 10°-55° N Latitude Northern Hemisphere 10°-55° N Latitude –1 exception part of SE Asia.

Population Cartogram – Counties displayed by size of population rather than land area. Countries shown have at least 50 million people. Where are the major population clusters?

East Asia Includes: China, Taiwan, Korea & Japan Includes: China, Taiwan, Korea & Japan ¼ of world’s population, 5/6’s in China ¼ of world’s population, 5/6’s in China Concentrated in East, interior & west sparse Concentrated in East, interior & west sparse China: 25 cities w/ over 2 million, 61 over 1 million China: 25 cities w/ over 2 million, 61 over 1 million –more than 50% live in rural areas. Japan & Korea: 40% live in 3 urban areas Japan & Korea: 40% live in 3 urban areas –J: Tokyo & Osaka; K: Seoul. < 3% of land area. –3/4 ‘s live in urban areas

South Asia Includes: Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, & Includes: Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, & Sri Lanka ¼ of world’s population ¼ of world’s population India: ¾’s of S Asia population India: ¾’s of S Asia population –Largest Concentration: from Lahore, Pakistan to Bangladesh & Bay of Bengal, 900 miles Plains of the Indus & Ganges Rivers & both Coast. Plains of the Indus & Ganges Rivers & both Coast. Most people are farmers, only 25% live in urban areas. Most people are farmers, only 25% live in urban areas.

Southeast Asia Includes: Islands of Java, Sumatra, Borneo, Papua New Guinea & Philippines, & Indochina Includes: Islands of Java, Sumatra, Borneo, Papua New Guinea & Philippines, & Indochina 1/3 of Asia’s population 1/3 of Asia’s population Indonesia: 4 th biggest population. Indonesia: 4 th biggest population. Indochina: People live in the River valley & deltas Indochina: People live in the River valley & deltas Most people live in rural areas & are farmers. Most people live in rural areas & are farmers.

Europe Also includes European Russia Also includes European Russia 1/3 largest cluster 1/3 largest cluster 1/9 th of the world’s people 1/9 th of the world’s people 3/4 th ’s live in urban areas. < 10% farmers 3/4 th ’s live in urban areas. < 10% farmers Linked by roads & rail lines Linked by roads & rail lines Highest population: Coal fields of England, Germany, & Belgium. Highest population: Coal fields of England, Germany, & Belgium. Must import food - don’t produce enough. Must import food - don’t produce enough. Additional resources reason for world exploration. Additional resources reason for world exploration.

Other Population Clusters Northeastern US & Southeastern Canada Northeastern US & Southeastern Canada –from Boston, MA to Newport News, VA & east to Chicago. –2% of world’s population –< 2% are farmers West Africa – south facing Atlantic coast West Africa – south facing Atlantic coast –2% of world’s population –½ live in Nigeria, ½ in countries west of Nigeria –Majority work in agriculture

Sparsely Populated Regions Dry Lands - 20% of Earth’s land Dry Lands - 20% of Earth’s land –Largest desert region from Sahara to Gobi. –Lack water to grow crops. –Valuable natural resources - oil Wet Lands - 20d N & S Lat. Wet Lands - 20d N & S Lat. –50 inches or more/year. –Rain & heat deplete soil nutrients. –Wet & Dry seasons –Wet can grown enough food to support large populations

Sparsely Populated Regions cont. Cold Lands – polar regions Cold Lands – polar regions – permafrost –Less precipitation than some deserts –Few animals High Lands - Mountain region High Lands - Mountain region –Too steep, snow covered –Exception: temp & rainfall make higher elevation desirable – Mexico City elev ft.

Population Density Arithmetic Density – total number of objects in an area Arithmetic Density – total number of objects in an area Population/area = AD Population/area = AD US 84 people/sq mile; Bangladesh 2919/sq mile US 84 people/sq mile; Bangladesh 2919/sq mile India 922; Canada & Australia 7 India 922; Canada & Australia 7 Vary w/in a country: New York county 27,500; Loving County, TX.06 Vary w/in a country: New York county 27,500; Loving County, TX.06 Egypt is 79 for the entire country, but 5400 for the Nile River Valley & Delta Egypt is 79 for the entire country, but 5400 for the Nile River Valley & Delta

Physiological Density – number of people supported by unit area of arable land Population/arable land area = PD Population/arable land area = PD Higher the PD the greater the pressure people place on land to produce enough food. Higher the PD the greater the pressure people place on land to produce enough food. US – 453/sq mile; Egypt 5947/sq mile US – 453/sq mile; Egypt 5947/sq mile What does Egypt's low AD & high PD indicate? What does Egypt's low AD & high PD indicate?

Agricultural Density – ratio of # of farmers to amount of land. Agricultural Density – ratio of # of farmers to amount of land. Number of farmers/amount of arable land Number of farmers/amount of arable land US – 1.6 farmers/sq km; Egypt 251 US – 1.6 farmers/sq km; Egypt 251 Why? Why? –MDC have better technology & finance allows fewer people to farm more land & feed more people. Look at Table on Page 51 Look at Table on Page 51 What conclusions can we draw? What conclusions can we draw? –Bangladesh & Netherlands

Natural Increase Crude Birth Rate (CBR): the total number of live births/year for every 1000 persons alive in the society. Ex. 20 means for every 1000 people in a country 20 babies are born/yr. Crude Birth Rate (CBR): the total number of live births/year for every 1000 persons alive in the society. Ex. 20 means for every 1000 people in a country 20 babies are born/yr. Crude Death Rate (CDR): the total number of deaths in a year for every 1000 people alive in the society. Crude Death Rate (CDR): the total number of deaths in a year for every 1000 people alive in the society.

Natural Increase Cont. Natural increase Rate (NIR): the % by which a population grows in a year, excludes immigration, first convert to %. Natural increase Rate (NIR): the % by which a population grows in a year, excludes immigration, first convert to %. NIR= CBR-CDR Current NIR – 1.2%; high 1963 – 2.2% Current NIR – 1.2%; high 1963 – 2.2% Doubling Time: number of years needed to double the population, assuming current NIR. Doubling Time: number of years needed to double the population, assuming current NIR. –Current: 54 years: 1963 – 35 years –95% of NI in LDC – 2%; European have negative

Fertility & Mortality Total Fertility Rates (TFR) – average # of children a woman will have in her childbearing years. Total Fertility Rates (TFR) – average # of children a woman will have in her childbearing years. –Attempts to predict future behavior –Current TFR Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) - # of deaths of infants <1 yr. compared with total live births. Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) - # of deaths of infants <1 yr. compared with total live births. Life Expectancy – average # of years a infant can expect to live at current mortality. Life Expectancy – average # of years a infant can expect to live at current mortality.

Wrap up MDC – lower NIR, CBR, TFR, IMR, & higher LE. MDC – lower NIR, CBR, TFR, IMR, & higher LE. LDC – higher NIR, CBR, TFT, IMR & lower LE. LDC – higher NIR, CBR, TFT, IMR & lower LE. HOWEVER, CDR does not follow the pattern. HOWEVER, CDR does not follow the pattern. –Combined CDR for all LDC’s is lower than combined rate for all MDC. –Variation between highest & lower CDR’s is less extreme that variation in CBR’s. –Why?

Demographic Transition Model Stage 1: Low Growth – very high birth & death rate, produces no long-term natural increase Stage 1: Low Growth – very high birth & death rate, produces no long-term natural increase Stage 2: High Growth – Rapidly declining death rate, very high birth rate, produces very high natural increase. Stage 2: High Growth – Rapidly declining death rate, very high birth rate, produces very high natural increase. Stage 3: Moderate Growth – Birth rate rapidly decline, death rate continues to decline, and natural increase rates begin to moderate. Stage 3: Moderate Growth – Birth rate rapidly decline, death rate continues to decline, and natural increase rates begin to moderate. Stage 4: Low Growth – very low birth & death rates produce no long-term natural increase Stage 4: Low Growth – very low birth & death rates produce no long-term natural increase

Population Chapter 2

Malthus on Overpopulation English economist, , An Essay on the Principle of Population. English economist, , An Essay on the Principle of Population. Population increased geometrically, whereas food supply increase arithmetically. Population increased geometrically, whereas food supply increase arithmetically. –Today: 1 person – 1 unit of food –25 years: 2 persons – 2 units of food –50 years: 4 persons – 3 units of food –75 years: 8 persons – 4 units of food –100 years: 16 persons – 5 units of food Conclusion made few decades after England became 1 st country to enter Stage 2. Conclusion made few decades after England became 1 st country to enter Stage 2.

Contemporary Neo-Malthusians 1. LDCs have most rapid pop. growth because of transfer of medical technology, but not wealth from MDCs. Wider gap between pop. & resources. 1. LDCs have most rapid pop. growth because of transfer of medical technology, but not wealth from MDCs. Wider gap between pop. & resources. 2. Population growth is outstripping a wide variety of resources. 2. Population growth is outstripping a wide variety of resources.

Malthus’s Critics The belief that world’s supply of resources is fixed. Possibilism & Technology can expand it. The belief that world’s supply of resources is fixed. Possibilism & Technology can expand it. Boserup & Kuznets – Cornucopian Theory – human ingenuity will result in innovations that make it possible to expand the food supply Boserup & Kuznets – Cornucopian Theory – human ingenuity will result in innovations that make it possible to expand the food supply Simon – Larger populations stimulate economic growth. Simon – Larger populations stimulate economic growth. Marxist – no cause-&-effect between population growth & economic development. Marxist – no cause-&-effect between population growth & economic development. LDCs can rapidly accepted modern ideas. LDCs can rapidly accepted modern ideas.

Example of Acceptance Use of Family Planning Methods Use of Family Planning Methods Sub-Saharan Africa, low use of contraceptives, < ¼, could have strong impact. Sub-Saharan Africa, low use of contraceptives, < ¼, could have strong impact. In Asia & Latin America 2/3’s use them. In Asia & Latin America 2/3’s use them. Reasons - varies among countries: Reasons - varies among countries: –Economics, religion, education. –Low status of women. – Children represent higher status & sign of virility

Epidemiologic Transition Stages 1 – “natural checks” Stages 1 – “natural checks” Black Plague – 1347 spread from coast to inland towns to rural areas Western Europe, 1349 Northern Europe. Black Plague – 1347 spread from coast to inland towns to rural areas Western Europe, 1349 Northern Europe. –25 million Europeans died more epidemics. 5 more epidemics. –13 million in China died, left farms with no workers, ships adrift, estates with no heirs

Epidemiologic Transition Stage 2 – Stage of receding pandemics Stage 2 – Stage of receding pandemics Improved sanitation, nutrition, medicine during Industrial Revolution reduced spread of diseases. Improved sanitation, nutrition, medicine during Industrial Revolution reduced spread of diseases. Cholera – ½ mill. NYC 1832; ⅛ of Cairo 1831 Cholera – ½ mill. NYC 1832; ⅛ of Cairo 1831 Dr. John Snow showed distribution pattern with water sources. Victims from 1 H²O pump. Dr. John Snow showed distribution pattern with water sources. Victims from 1 H²O pump.

Epidemiologic Transition Stage 3 – Stage of Degenerative & Human Created diseases Stage 3 – Stage of Degenerative & Human Created diseases Decrease infectious diseases, increase chronic disorders. Decrease infectious diseases, increase chronic disorders. –Cardiovascular diseases & cancer Vaccines lead to decrease: Polio, measles, tetanus, diphtheria & pertussis. Vaccines lead to decrease: Polio, measles, tetanus, diphtheria & pertussis. LDC moved from Stage 2 to 3 LDC moved from Stage 2 to 3

Epidemiologic Transition Stage 4 – Stage of Delayed degenerative diseases Stage 4 – Stage of Delayed degenerative diseases Causes of death heart disease & cancer linger but life expectancy is extended b/c medical advances. Causes of death heart disease & cancer linger but life expectancy is extended b/c medical advances. Better diet & more exercise, reduced use of tobacco & alcohol. Better diet & more exercise, reduced use of tobacco & alcohol.

Epidemiologic Transition Possible Stage 5 – reemergence of infectious & parasitic diseases Possible Stage 5 – reemergence of infectious & parasitic diseases 3 Reasons possible 3 Reasons possible –Evolution: Drug resistant diseases & insects –Poverty: over crowded conditions, cost of treatment, availability of treatment –Improved travel: allow diseases to move quickly between areas. EX: H1N1, SARS

AIDS Most lethal epidemic in recent years Most lethal epidemic in recent years 25 million worldwide have died 25 million worldwide have died 90% people with AIDS in LDCs 90% people with AIDS in LDCs –22 million infected in sub-Saharan Africa, 5 million in Asia, 2 million E. Europe & Latin America, & 1 million each N. America & W. Europe Life expectancy – Declined in Southern Africa from 50s in 1980s to 40s now. Life expectancy – Declined in Southern Africa from 50s in 1980s to 40s now.