1 Air Quality Issues New State Implementation Plan Seyed Sadredin Executive Director/APCO San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District

2  Valley’s challenges are unmatched by any other region in the nation.  Valley’s geography and meteorology are ideal for forming and trapping smog.

3 Pollution Density

4 Past Efforts to Reduce Air Pollution by Region

5 Much progress has been made, but the remaining challenges are daunting Federal StandardsPassFailComments Ozone: Smog in Summer  One-hourN/ASmog cut by half before standard was revoked  Eight-hour EPA compliance by Plan due in PM-10: Dust, soot in fall  24-hour  Annual PM-2.5: smallest particulates in winter  24-hour New standard released 9/21/06.  Annual EPA Compliance by Plan due in 2008.

6 How much more reductions is needed for 8-hr ozone attainment? An additional 60% reductions in emissions needed to meet the new smog standard 480 tons per day of reductions are needed

7 60% Reduction in Emissions: How Difficult? “Carrying Capacity” Mobile Sources Stationary Sources Light Duty Vehicles Diesel Trucks Agriculture Emissions Inventory

Ozone Plan 4-Faceted Control Strategy Regulatory component (District rules) Incentive-based strategies Alternative compliance Local, state, and federal sources/partnerships

9 Current District Control Measures 41 Stationary & area source measures Current rulemaking projects (10) – affecting 20 current rules, Proposed CMs (17), Further Study CMs (14) 7 Mobile & Indirect Measures: Trip Reduction, Accelerated Fleet Rule, ISR Enhancement, Green Contracting, Expanded Spare the Air, Heat Island Mitigation, Alternative Energy & Energy Conservation Incentive Programs- for faster fleet turnover of diesel trucks, off-road equipment, farm equipment, light/medium duty vehicles)

10 Reductions from Control Measures New reductions from recent District rules (not yet in inventory) = 72 tons/day by 2012 Reductions from new District rules & programs = 46 tons/day by 2012 Reductions from state & federal mobile source emissions = 80 tons/day by 2014 Reductions from known District incentive funding = 12 tons/day by 2012

Attainment “Gap” Carrying Capacities derived from ARB photochemical modeling 300 t/d

12 Regulations vs. Incentives 2012 Attainment 2023 Attainment $7.5 Billion Incentives $2.9 Billion Incentives $2.1 Billion Incentives Recent Local Rules New Local Regulations Fleet Turnover New State Measures Incentives 2020 Attainment

13 Incentives Strategy “Air Quality Empowerment Zones” Tax incentives for plan/fleet modernization Fair share of air quality funds from the state transportation bond $200 million/year cash incentives for year (50/50 state and federal match)

14 When Will the Valley Attain? Attainment is possible with this Plan Attainment will “phase in” over time –Some areas are currently in attainment –Others will attain as emissions are reduced Attainment in Parlier/Edison… –Requires 35%-40% reduction from 2012 baseline –Means attainment for all SJV metro areas –Will be achieved by 2019 with proposed controls Over 90% of the Valley population will be in attainment by 2019 Arvin’s low carrying capacity defines the strategy

15 Edison Oildale/ Bakersfield Maricopa Arvin Shafter Ash Mtn. Lookout Pt. Lower Kaweah Visalia Parlier Fresno Clovis Turlock Merced Tracy Stockton Modesto Madera Hanford yr Avg of 4 th highest measurement

16 Edison Oildale/ Bakersfield Maricopa Arvin Shafter Ash Mtn. Lookout Pt. Lower Kaweah Visalia Parlier Fresno Clovis Turlock Merced Tracy Stockton Modesto Madera Hanford 2012 w/Proposed Controls

17 Edison Oildale/ Bakersfield Maricopa Arvin Shafter Ash Mtn. Lookout Pt. Lower Kaweah Visalia Parlier Fresno Clovis Turlock Merced Tracy Stockton Modesto Madera Hanford 2014 w/Proposed Controls

18 Edison Oildale/ Bakersfield Maricopa Arvin Shafter Ash Mtn. Lookout Pt. Lower Kaweah Visalia Parlier Fresno Clovis Turlock Merced Tracy Stockton Modesto Madera Hanford 2019 w/Proposed Controls