1. The West is different August 14, 2013 OAQPS

2. Aerosols causing Worst Visibility Days – East vs. West 2

3. Aerosols causing Best Visibility Days – East vs. West 3

4. 4

5. 5

6. 2018 emissions projections: are conservative estimates of BART reductions – actual or currently proposed controls are more stringent BART is not yet implemented and those reductions are not in the 2008 data do not include Hg MACT, mobile, and other federal rules adopted since 2009 do not project Oil & Gas from the higher-quality baseline data in use now held fire and dust constant 6

7. 2018 emissions projections: are conservative estimates of BART reductions – actual or currently proposed controls are more stringent BART is not yet implemented and those reductions are not in the 2008 data do not include Hg MACT, mobile, and other federal rules adopted since 2009 do not project Oil & Gas from the higher-quality baseline data in use now held fire and dust constant 7

8. Grand Canyon Visibility Transport Commission recommendations Air Pollution Prevention –Renewable energy, improved energy efficiency Clean Air Corridors –Improve regional tracking and monitoring, establish triggers for additional action Stationary Sources –50 to 70% reduction in SO 2 emissions from 1990 levels by 2040 Areas In And Near Parks –Implement park and wilderness, and other planning processes, develop strategies for nearby communities and activities, apply existing regulatory requirements –Address road dust Mobile Sources –National, regional, and local standards and strategies 8

9. Grand Canyon Visibility Transport Commission recommendations Emissions from Mexico –Develop a comprehensive emissions inventory, develop bi-national agreements and mechanisms, finance and implement control strategies and technologies Fire –Plan for visibility impacts of smoke, improve integrated assessment of emissions –Implement an emissions tracking system for all fire activities –Enhance smoke management programs –Develop cooperative funding mechanisms, promote public education program –Establish annual emission goals for fire programs –Remove administrative barriers to the use of alternatives to burning Future Regional Coordinating Entity –Continue an regional air quality entity, similar to the Commission –Integrate efforts of an administrative body with other regional air quality needs, planning efforts, and structures –Develop ongoing funding mechanisms, planning process for future functions Grand Canyon Visibility Transport Commission Recommendations June 1996 9

10. Fire is essential in the West Historic land management, climate have altered (worsened) fire events Fire is an episodic contributor to visibility-impairing aerosols All types of fire (not just large wildfires) are important "Modeling indicates that, at certain times, increased visibility impairment from fire is likely to exceed the potential visibility improvements associated with other GCVTC recommendations“ (1996 GCVTC report) 10

11. 2012 right behind 2006 in wildfire acres burned 11

12. Western visibility, ozone, and PM precursors – sources and analysis Power plants decreasing markedly Mobile sources controlled and emission rates decreasing through federal rules and state testing programs Fire activity and effects are important, receiving intensive study Biogenics Oil and gas……….. All sources currently being studied in comprehensive regional modeling analysis –2008 base year –West-wide Jumpstart Air Quality Modeling Study (WestJumpAQMS)WestJumpAQMS Just completed regional monitoring and emissions data analysis for 116 Class I areas in WRAP region for Reasonable Progress reports by states –RHR Reasonable Progress Support DocumentRHR Reasonable Progress Support Document –RHR Natural Conditions Review DocumentRHR Natural Conditions Review Document 12

13. Data from EPA Clean Air Markets Division 13

14. Oil and Gas 3-State Air Quality Study (Data Warehouse: http://views.cira.colostate.edu/TSDW)http://views.cira.colostate.edu/TSDW WRAP Inventories of Upstream Oil and Gas Activities –Phase III 2006 Base Year Emission Inventory ProjectPhase III 2006 Base Year Emission Inventory Project –Phase IV 2009 Update Emission Inventory ProjectPhase IV 2009 Update Emission Inventory Project –Oil & Gas Piceance Pilot Project (P3) Mobile Source InventoryOil & Gas Piceance Pilot Project (P3) Mobile Source Inventory –Analysis of States’ & EPA O&G Air Emission Control Requirements for Selected Basins in the Western U.S.Analysis of States’ & EPA O&G Air Emission Control Requirements for Selected Basins in the Western U.S. –Williston and Great Plains Basins’ O&G 2011 and projection year Emission Inventory ProjectWilliston and Great Plains Basins’ O&G 2011 and projection year Emission Inventory Project Development of Oil and Gas Exploration and Production and Natural Gas Gathering and Processing Greenhouse Gas Accounting ProtocolsGreenhouse Gas Accounting Protocols National O&G Emissions Workgroup –States, regional orgs, EPA collaborating on tool development / data collection 14