CAN H E WIN?

Executive Summary Ted Cruz has committed his entire life to the Foundational principles that made America great. From reciting the Constitution to Chambers of Commerce as a teenager; to his time in the Bush Administration; to his powerful victories before the Supreme Court; and finally, as one of the leading conservatives in the Senate, Ted has been a Courageous Conservative. If Republicans nominate a conservative in 2016, there is a good chance we can win the White House The Establishment however never seems to learn that moderates don’t win The 2016 Primary will be completely different from past primaries due to changes to the primary calendar and the number of well-funded candidates Ted Cruz’s leadership role on the most important issues that matter to primary voters: Marriage, Religious Freedom, Immigration, Common Core, ObamaCare, Debt and the Second Amendment uniquely position him to build the coalition of votes necessary to win a crowded primary Cruz has the most complete portfolio of campaign assets

IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATE with a terrible campaign almost won. Romney lost by only428,000votesinjustfivestates: Ohio 103,000 Florida 70,000 Colorado 113,000 New Mexico 76,000 Nevada 66,000

IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATE with a terrible campaign almost won. He was the one man on the planet who could not use ObamaCare as a wedge issue Romney HAD NO WEDGE OR MAGNET ISSUE to turn out the voters he needed Social media amateurs Campaign manager could not harness the power of data analytics for message creation, message targeting, and performance evaluation NO GROUND GAME – Moderates don’t attract block-walkers Terrible performance with Hispanics

IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATE with a terrible team almost won Florida. In 2012, 49% of the states Cuban Voters supported Obama while 47% supported Romney Bush won 75% and 78% of the Cuban Vote in 2000 and Obama carried Florida by only 70,000 votes There are 1,400,000 Cubans in Florida Cuban Cruz would have only needed 66% of the Cuban vote in order to have won Florida

IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATE with a terrible campaign lost Ohio due to record African-American turnout. African-American Voter Participation increased 50% with Obama In 2012 African-Americans made up 15% of Ohio Voters and they went 96% for Obama In 2004, African-Americans made up 10% Black population is flat to declining, roughly 12.1% of Ohio’s total population Assuming that African-American support for the Democratic candidate had reverted the 2004 levels results in a vote swing of 193,648 – Republicans would have won Hillary will have to drive African-American turnout 25% over 2004 levels to win Ohio

IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATE with a terrible campaign managed to lose Virginia. Since 2000, African-American citizen voting-age population actually shrank from 20% to 18.7% in Virginia by 2012 Likewise, since 2000, the Hispanic share of potential voters also shrank from 3.4% to 2.5% by 2012 Yet Romney managed to generate a turnout rate among non-Hispanic whites (66.4%) that was not only lower than among African-Americans (69.5%), but lower than among Hispanics (71.9%) If African-American turnout just reverts to 2004 levels (54.8%) – and nothing else changes – the Republican presidential nominee will win the state in 2016

IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATE with a terrible campaign did not win New Mexico because his Vermont based Campaign Czar did not understand Hispanics. 46% of state is Hispanic Romney lost New Mexico, who has a Republican Governor, by 10 points or 81,000 votes Romney only captured 21% of the Hispanic vote compared with Bush, who got 40% in 2004 Romney’s disgraceful performance was hurt further by the fact that New Mexico former Governor, Gary Johnson, ran as a Libertarian garnering 3.5% Rafael “Ted” Cruz can achieve George Bush totals giving him 62,000 additional Hispanics, while the Democrats lose 62,000, would more than offset Romney’s 81,000 loss margin

IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATE with a terrible campaign did not win Colorado because his Vermont based Campaign Czar did not understand Hispanics. Hispanics made up 14% in 2012 and expected to make up 15% in 2016 Romney only received 23% of Hispanic vote versus 40% for Bush in 2004 Cruz achieving Bush numbers with Hispanics and turning out Republicans makes Colorado, who just elected a conservative Senator, a very achievable target Cruz would still need to turn out additional married, white people in order to carry state Cruz positioned to do well with the Libertarians in the state

Lookingto

Hillary 2016 Strategy MAKE THE RACE ABOUT HISTORY, NOT HER Hold on to as many African-American voters as she can Increase turnout amoung single women to offset reduction of African-American vote and potential losses with Hispanics

Republican Must Do’s for 2016 Perform better with Latino voters in Florida, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada - Target George Bush’s average of 40% (he got 56% in Florida) Shrink the gender gap that has increased to 4% favoring women Turn out white, married people over the age of 40 by focusing on wedge issues and targeting evangelicals

Republicans win with wedge and magnet that drive their voters to turnout issues Reagan 1980: The Economy and National Security Bush (Atwater – South Carolina Conservative) 1988: Willie Horton/Flag Burning *A+ Bush (Baker – Establishment Republican) 1992: No Wedge Issue Bush 2000: Gay Marriage, Restore Honor and Dignity to the White House Midterms 2010: ObamaCare Midterms 2014: ObamaCare/Immigration Every Senator in 2014 ran as a Ted Cruz Republican

Moderate CandidatesareLosers More Conservative c GW Bush (2000)" GW Bush (2004)" Reagan (1980)" Reagan (1984)" McCain (2008)" Romney (2012)" GHW Bush (1988)" GHW Bush (1992)" Ford (1976)" Dole (1996)" 0"12"23"35"46"58" Rove won for Bu sh by driving Evangelical turnout – Now he loses by doing the opposite = winning campaign Exception was when Bush 41 ran as a hard conservative in 1988 with Atwater and Reagan’s help

The Establishment Never Learns Operate under the Media-created myth that moderates win elections Give away through candidate selection key wedge and magnet issues that are must-haves in order to drive turnout and win Successful Wedge Issues in the past have been: - Willie Horton/flag burning in Gay Marriage, Restoring Honor to the White House in ObamaCare in 2010 and 2014 In 2012 they chose the one man on the planet who could not take advantage of the most effective wedge issue: ObamaCare

The Establishment Never Learns For 2016 they have chosen, Jeb Bush. The one person on the planet that forfeits Republicans on every Hillary wedge issue: - National Security - Immigration - Future Not Past - Common Core - Foreign Money

Ted Cruz is the only leading candidate who on has a consistent/strong record thetopClintonwedgeissues Money Immigration and Common Core Very Important Common Core Immigration Future Not Past National Security Foreign CRUZ BUSH NO HUCKABEE NO - PAUL NO RUBIO NO WALKER NO

White Vote Shrank in 2012

Evangelicalsare not voting Evan euca I Voters Number of # of Evenfelloel Voters % of Eleotorete #of CVAPEvangelicals # of Evangelical Voters who sta ed tiome 22.1 million 21% 74.5 million 52.4 million 25.7 million 21% 79.4 million 53.7 million 30.2 mill ion 23% 83.2 million 53 million million 23% million 57 million

In 2004 Rove drove conservative and religious votergrowth to new highs – but that slowed and stopped progress POPULATI ON ·················. ·. ·. · : ···· ················· ····················································································· ······································......:......:.. / CONSERVATIVES :.: :.. : ················ ······· ········· ······· · ········RELIGIOUS. 0 ·············· ·······. '96..l.l.:.: O -0.6 '04'08 '12'12 The only time Republicans gotmore ofthe popular vote since 1988.

WHEREWE ARE TODAY

GOP NOMINATION CONSIDERATION II

METHODOLOGY ! 739 autodial phone interviews conducted nationwide among likely Republican primary voters ! Conducted May 15-16, 2015 ! Margin of error is +/- 3.6% ! Comparative data results pulled from February 2015 polling

OF NOTE ! This is a baseline study of Republican primary voter attitudes. The Republican field and attitudes of primary voters are dynamic and we fully expect the underlying structure of the electorate to continue evolving in the coming months. ! Successful vote coalitions among the early primary and caucuses may likely only require 20-40% support. ! This survey was conducted by TargetPoint Consulting for its own use and was not conducted on behalf of any candidate or associated organization.

CANDIDATE AWARENESS AND CONSIDERATION

Please rate each candidate on a 7-point scale. Press 1 if you would almost certainly vote for that candidate. Press 2 if you would strongly consider supporting that candidate. Press 7 if you would almost certainly never vote for that candidate. Press 6 if it is unlikely you would ever support that candidate. Press 4 if you are completely neutral. However, you can use any number from 1-7 to rate these candidates. If you don’t know the candidate well enough to rate them, Press 9. Those who selected 1-7 for a candidate were considered ‘Aware,’ while those who selected 9 were considered ‘Not Aware.’ Total February Awareness 1-7 Aware9 Not Aware 94 JEB BUSH MIKE HUCKABEE 92 RAND PAUL 89 CHRIS CHRISTIE 89 MARCO RUBIO 85 TED CRUZ 80 - DONALD TRUMP RICK PERRY 86 RICK SANTORUM 83 SCOTT WALKER 75 BEN CARSON 70 LINDSEY GRAHAM - BOBBY JINDAL 69 CARLY FIORINA 50 JOHN KASICH CANDIDATE AWARENESS

Please rate each candidate on a 7-point scale. Press 1 if you would almost certainly vote for that candidate. Press 2 if you would strongly consider supporting that candidate. Press 7 if you would almost certainly never vote for that candidate. Press 6 if it is unlikely you would ever support that candidate. Press 4 if you are completely neutral. However, you can use any number from 1-7 to rate these candidates. If you don’t know the candidate well enough to rate them, Press 9. Mean Scores 1 Certainly Consider2-3 Consider4+9 Neutral5-6 Not Consider 7 Certainly Not Consider MARCO RUBIO 2.99 SCOTT WALKER 3.01 JEB BUSH 3.57 MIKE HUCKABEE 3.48 TED CRUZ 3.51 BEN CARSON 3.31 RAND PAUL 3.80 RICK PERRY BOBBY JINDAL RICK SANTORUM 4.08 CHRIS CHRISTIE 4.42 CARLY FIORINA 4.09 JOHN KASICH 4.00 DONALD TRUMP 4.91 LINDSEY GRAHAM 4.63 *Chart order is by total 1-3 consideration CANDIDATE CONSIDERATION

Comparing the total awareness of each candidate to their 1-3 consideration score we see candidates who have higher awareness and popularity overall (Bush, Rubio, Huckabee, Paul, and Cruz) and we see that a group clustered toward the bottom left quadrant that are less unknown. CONSIDERATION CONVERSION RATE WELL-KNOWN LESS POPULAR CANDIDATESWELL-KNOWN TOP CHOICES 100 Paul Bush Huckabee Cruz Christie Perry Santorum 90 Trump Rubio 80 Walker Graham Jindal Carson 70 Fiorina 60 Kasich LESS KNOWN/UNDERPERFORMINGPOPULAR LOWER-RECOGNITION Total Consideration % 1-3 *Announced/Unannounced candidates are listed based on current status at the time of the poll and does not account for candidates with end of May and June planned announcements *Conversion rate was calculated by dividing the total consideration (1-3) score by total awareness 1-7. Total Awareness % Rubio 71% Walker 71% Carson 64% Cruz 57% Huckabee 55% Bush 54% Paul 50% Jindal 46% Perry 45% Santorum 40% Kasich 39% Fiorina 38% Christie 34% Trump 24% Graham 23% Unannounced Candidates Announced Candidates HIGHEST CONSIDERATION V. AWARENESS

Below is the total consideration (1-3) for each candidate from our February poll and our current May poll. 00 RubioWalkerBush Huckabee CruzCarson PaulPerryJindal Santorum Christie Fiorina KasichTrump* Graham* *not included in February Poll FEBRUARY MAY COMPARED CONSIDERATIONS

Below is the change in consideration(1-3) for each candidate from our February poll to our May poll. FIORINA +12 RUBIO +7 CRUZ +5 PAUL +1 CARSON 0 HUCKABEE JINDAL KASICH -3 BUSH SANTORUM CHRISTIE -4 WALKER -5 PERRY -6 *Lindsey Graham and Donald Trump were not included in February Poll CHANGE IN CONSIDERATION

reasonable compromises to get things done, or should compromise, even if things don’t get done in the short-run? Social Conservative Mainstream Get Things principles 44 Could Support Any Libertarian Unsure CANDIDATE PREFERENCES Generally speaking what type of candidate do you prefer nominating? FEBRUARY 29 MAY Tea Party Do you think that the Republican nominee, if elected president, should reach out to Democrats and work to find they try to lead on strong conservative principles and not Stand by Done 56 In our February poll, the party was split on this issue.

How would you describe your views in the area of social/fiscal issues? Very Cons Somewhat Cons ModerateSomewhat Lib Very Lib 17 # SOCIAL FISCAL 30% of Republican primary voters are both very socially and very fiscally conservative. 70% are both socially conservative and fiscally conservative. 16% are socially moderate or liberal and fiscally conservative. ISSUE PREFERENCES

Below is the political breakdown of our designated clusters. The dotted circles represent the clusters from our February polling and the red circles represent where the clusters are now. Social Tea Party 17% Conservatives 19% Moderates Uncommitted Partisans Percentage of cluster that chose “get things done” Bubble sizes represent relative size of each cluster. Percentage of cluster that is both very fiscally and socially conservative Since our February Poll, we no longer conservatives. Our February group of We have also seen the equilibrium of 16% Conservatives see a cluster of mainstream “establishment” voters has fragmented into what we show as mainstream 16% moderates and pragmatic partisans. the party move slightly less Undecided conservative and more pragmatic. 8% Dissatisfied 10% 14% Mainstream Moderates Pragmatic UPDATED POLITICAL CLUSTERING

We looked at each candidate’s total consideration score (1-3) and subtracted their derived ballot score to show the potential growth of each candidate. Below are the current and potential ballot results. Current Derived BallotPotential Growth MARCO RUBIO SCOTT WALKER TED CRUZ MIKE HUCKABEE JEB BUSH BEN CARSON RAND PAUL RICK PERRY BOBBY JINDAL RICK SANTORUM CHRIS CHRISTIE CARLY FIORINA JOHN KASICH DONALD TRUMP LINDSEY GRAHAM *Candidates are rank ordered by potential growth POTENTIAL GROWTH

We looked at the top derived ballot scores based on voter preference for a particular nominee: social conservative, mainstream, tea party, any, or libertarian candidate. Below are each of their top 6 choices and the number of undecided voters based on these nominee types. Social ConservativesMainstreamTea PartyCould Support AnyLibertarian HUCKABEEBUSHCRUZRUBIOPAUL BUSHRUBIOWALKE R BUSH WALKE R HUCKABEECARSONBUSHWALKE R CARSONWALKE R PAULCARSON RUBIOCARSONHUCKABEE CHRISTIE CRUZCHRISTIERUBIOPAULRUBIO UNDECIDED 32 UNDECIDED BALLOT AND NOMINEE TYPE

TEDHASREAL GROWTHPOTENTIAL WITH EVANGELICALS ANDLIBERTARIANS.

THISPRIMARYIS REALLYDIFFERENT. Schedule is significantly different than past years – favors more conservative candidate The first 14 states (through Super Tuesday) have 574 delegates (83%) that will come from conservative states At least six well-funded candidates – making it very difficult for Establishment to destroy the conservative challenger

The Calendar leans SOUTH DELEGATESTHROUGHSUPERTUESDAY Sou th Nor th Tot al °/o 31 °/o

The Calendar leans RIGHT DELEGATES THROUGHSUPERTUESDAY Conservativ e 73° Moderat e 27° Tota l 693

The Calendar leans CRUZ

Anumberofwell-financedcandidates Historically, the Establishment Candidate uses his financial resources to destroy the leading challenger who has already been weakened by the other challenger candidates.

TEDIS WELL-POSITIONED TOWINTHE PRIMARY.

Cruz has been consistently right on the issues thatmattermosttoprimaryvotingblocs. Sources: " " " " " BUSHHUCKABEECRUZPAULRUBIOWALKER EDUCATION / COMMON CORE IMMIGRATION SOCIAL / RELIGIOUS ISSUES STRONG NATIONAL DEFENSE DEFICIT / GOV’T SPENDING OBAMACARE SECOND AMENDMENT

Cruz campaign has the most complete portfolio of “Assets” Small Dollar Donors Large Super PAC Social Media Followers Grass Roots Support Sophisticated Data Analytics CRUZ BUSH ? NO HUCKABEE NO PAUL NO RUBIO WALKER ??

Cruz in best position to run an ‘Obama’ caliber campaign in 2016 A proven data-driven infrastructure that is a small dollar fundraising and voter ID juggernaut. Eight full-time data scientists on staff. Raised $10 million from 90,000 donors in the first 100 days of campaign Campaign managed by great executives not people who can write and produce TV commercials Creative/Messaging Team led by one of the world’s premier firms hired by the Establishment to rebrand the Party - They want to work with Ted. The creative minds behind the Salvation Army Campaign, Chick-fil-A, Home Depot, Paul Harvey “I am a farmer Superbowl ad”

Cruz in best position to run an ‘Obama’ caliber campaign in 2016 Cruz has set a new standard for social media for Republicans both in the quantity of follower but just as importantly the effectiveness of the interactions. Has 8 million addresses Grassroots organization is nationwide not just Iowa – the only candidate even close is Paul Great communicator that can appeal to young people

Ted showing great strength in must-winSouthCarolina Straw Poll Results Greenville and Spartanburg victories are most impressive as they are two largest and most populated GOP counties in the state GreenvilleAnderson CountySpartanburgAikenDorchester Cruz28%27%32%36%30% Bush5%1%N/A Carson9%1%N/A 16% Graham3%6%N/A 4% Huckabee3%9%N/A Paul3%1%7%6%7% Rubio8%N/A Walker22%25%30%32%25%

Enhancing Cruz Brand A powerful biography comes out in late June Associated book tour Richards Group hired along with a team of branding experts Keep the Promise rolls out a positive campaign in key primary states around the first debate Real upside potential - Ted is polling very low with Evangelicals as many are unaware of his deep faith

3 of the Top 10 Donors on Ted Cruz Top Individual Donors to Conservative Super PACs – 2012 RankDonorTotal Given 1Adelson, Sheldon & Miriam$91,780,000 2Simmons, Harold$25,665,000 3Perry, Robert$23,450,000 4RickeEs, John$13,050,000 5Mercer, Robert$5,409,354 6Thiel, Peter$4,735,000 7Childs, John$4,225,000 8Perenchio, A Jerrold & Margaret$4,100,000 9Rowling, Robert$3,635,000 10McNair, Robert$3,175,000

To elect a principled conservative, donors can’t wait until November or December to decide Television rates start to skyrocket in December making it impossible for candidates to define themselves and their views so therefore are defined by the Media By January there is limited space at any price In September the major news organizations will decide which reporters will cover which candidates – the stronger the candidate is with money is the key factor to get the most well-known reporters which translates into earned media Fundraising success breeds fundraising success The competition for grassroots leaders is intense and fundraising momentum is a key driver

CAN H E WIN?