The Missouri Economy Where have we been? Where are we? Where are we going? Dr. David Mitchell, Director Bureau of Economic Research Missouri State University.

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Presentation transcript:

The Missouri Economy Where have we been? Where are we? Where are we going? Dr. David Mitchell, Director Bureau of Economic Research Missouri State University

The Missouri Economy is worse than you think But not for the reasons that you think!

The Cause? Housing Prices?

Year over year change in Housing Prices

Year over year change in quarterly GDP

US Unemployment Rate

Percent of unemployed who are unemployed longer than 27 weeks

The ‘True’ Unemployment Rate

Percent of employed who are working only part time

Percent of Employees who want Full Time Work

US Employment (Real and Hypothetical)

US Employment—How long to get back to where we were?

Recession Comparisons of Employment

Which US Industries have lost jobs? Percent of job losses by Industry

US Historical Professional and Business Employment

US Historical Construction Employment

US Historical Manufacturing Employment

Job Loss Comparison (Dec 07-Sep 09)

Missouri Employment (SA)

Which MO Industries have lost jobs? Percent of job losses by Industry

Mo Professional and Business Employment

Missouri Construction Employment

Missouri Manufacturing Employment

US and Mo Employment Comparisons

Percent Change in Missouri Taxable Sales

What does the decline in employment cost the state of Missouri’s budget? How much would tax revenue be with full employment? Every lost job in Missouri diminishes taxable sales by $16,435 or decreases in sales tax revenue of approximately $1,477. Every job lost in Missouri diminishes total tax collections (income and sales tax) by about $3,600—therefore, we see a decrease of approximately $570 million. This does not include the decrease in gas tax, alcohol, etc. or the increase in costs for greater AFDC, food stamps, Medicaid, unemployment compensation, etc.

Also, consider what employment would be at if we didn’t have the ‘bowl effect’ and had grown at the rate in the 1990s. Assume no recession, and employment would be 3,427,000 today—an additional 700,000 jobs or $2.5 billion in the state budget or an increased $11.5 billion in taxable sales compared to today. With the same percentage drop in the current recession? Employment would be 3,058,000 or an increase of 325,000 jobs compared to today—an additional $1.2 billion in the state budget or an increased $5.3 billion compared to today

Economic Growth Comparisons

Questions??