1. Laclede County Economic Analysis and Baseline 2001-2011 Anna Kovalyova Program Coordinator University of Missouri, Columbia

2. This report describes a set of annual baseline forecasts on demographic, economic, and fiscal conditions through 2011 for Laclede County, Missouri. Findings are based on a comprehensive statistical analysis of the most recent secondary data available, as well as important input provided by the Community Advisory Panel. 2001 serves as a base year for the forecasts, since the majority of available data is for 2001. The actual data in the figures accompanying the report are separated from their forecasted counterparts by the dotted line.

3. Findings Over the next ten years, Laclede County population is expected to increase from 32,868 to about 41,300 - an annual growth rate of 2.6 percent. This rate of growth is similar to the historical trends in the County. For comparison, the average annual population growth rate for the State of Missouri between 1990 and 2000 was 1.01 percent.

4. Population and employment growth will lead to approximately 1,470 new students in Laclede County public schools over the next ten years. Growth over the baseline period will also stimulate demand for approximately 3,380 additional housing units. Manufacturing sector provides the largest number of jobs in the County, followed by non-farm proprietors, retail sales and service sectors. Nationally, employment is now growing the fastest in the services and retail trade sectors. Findings

5. Per capita income in the County comprises approximately 72 percent of the State level. Real per capita income (expressed in 2001 Dollars) is projected to grow by 0.9 percent annually through 2011. Total personal income is expected to grow from almost $670 million to $917 million (in 2001 Dollars) over the baseline period – a real growth rate of 3.7 percent per year. Findings

6. Between the years 1990 and 2000, transfer payments to County’s retirees ranged from 49 to 40 percent of total transfer payments and around 8 percent of total personal income in the County. Supplemental Security Income ranged between 37 and 29 percent of income maintenance benefit payments for the same years. Total transfer payments comprised about 19 percent of the total personal income in the County for the years 1991 – 2000. This is somewhat higher than the corresponding 13 - 15 percent for the State of Missouri as a whole. Findings

7. The unemployment rate in the County is volatile: it tends to be the highest in January and the lowest in October. In 2001, Laclede County annual unemployment rate was 6.5 percent, vs. 4.7 percent statewide. According to CPAC projections, the number of unemployed in the County is expected to increase by a mere of 70 persons over the 10-year projection period, which amounts to the average annual growth rate of 0.6 percent. Findings

8. Increased County income and employment will fuel the strong growth in taxable retail sales – from $301.6 million in 2001 to almost $427 million in 2011 (2001 Dollars). As a percent of total county retail sales, Lebanon retail sales ranged from 88 percent in 1990 to 81 percent in 2001. Findings

9. Over the baseline period, county revenues are projected to fall below the demand for county services by over a million dollars. The rapid growth in demand for services (at a projected 4.8 percent per year) suggests that county government will be challenged in the future to deliver public services even more efficiently, and/or search for new sources of revenues. Findings

10. The County relies heavily on sales tax revenues. Between 1996 and 2001, sales taxes as a percentage of total County revenues fluctuated anywhere between 47 and 51 percent. Due to the volatility of retail sales, heavy reliance on sales taxes might represent a challenge for the local governments in balancing their budgets during economic downturns. Findings

11. Socio-Demographic Characteristics

21. Labor Market Characteristics

29. Economic Characteristics

35. Fiscal Characteristics

37. Conclusions Baseline projections will be as described above, if the current conditions in the County prevail. Laclede County has experienced steady growth throughout the 1990s, even though it did feel the effects of the nation-wide recession in a number of variables in 2000. That growth is expected to continue, bringing with it opportunities and challenges that must be addressed and that will affect the quality of life for all county residents.