AIR QUALITY/ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION IN THE NRC DECADAL SURVEY, Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond Daniel J. Jacob Harvard University

NRC Decadal Surveys are produced in many areas of science Community-based documents identifying priority directions in a scientific field to retain US leadership Respond to demands and charges from specific sponsors (agencies, OMB, OSTP, Congress) Provide strategic advice, not tactical Have been used in the past by NASA for Space Science, not Earth Science The Earth Science and Applications from Space (ESAS) Decadal Survey (released Feb 07) was requested by NASA/NOAA to set up a prioritized queue of satellite missions across all fields of Earth science for Goal was to achieve: coherent strategic vision community buy-in and imprimatur budget justification

DS Executive Committee & 7 Thematic Panels Member InstitutionExpertise Rick AnthesUniv. Corp. Atmospheric Research (UCAR), co-chairAtmospheric science Berrien MooreU. New Hampshire, co-chairBiogeochemical cycling Jim AndersonHarvard UniversityAtmospheric science, chemistry Bruce MarcusFormer TRW (ret)Remote sensing Bill GailMicrosoft Virtual EarthCivil space & Information Technology Susan CutterU. South CarolinaHazards & risk Tony HollingsworthEuropean Centre Medium-range Weather ForecastsWeather forecasting Kathie KellyU. WashingtonPhysical oceanography, satellite observation Neal LaneRice UniversityPolicy Warren WashingtonNational Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)Climate Mary Lou ZobackRisk Management SolutionsSolid earth Tony JanetosPac. NW Natl Lab/UMd, Applications Panel ChairEcology & land remote sensing Brad HagerMIT, Solid Earth Panel ChairSolid earth & Natural hazards Ruth DeFriesU. Maryland, Ecosystems Panel ChairLand cover change & remote sensing Susan AveryU. Colorado, Weather Panel ChairWeather Eric BarronU. Texas, Climate Panel ChairClimate Dennis LettenmaierU. Washington, Water Resources Panel ChairWater resources Mark WilsonU. Michigan, Human Health Panel ChairHuman health Vision: “A healthy, secure, prosperous & sustainable society for all people on Earth”

Top Ten Scientific Questions identified by Decadal Survey 10. Are major fault systems nearing release of stress via strong earthquakes? 9. Will tropical cyclones & heat waves become more frequent & intense? 8. What are health impacts of expanded “Ozone Hole” that could result from stratosphere cooling associated with climate change? 7. Will rare diseases become common, how will mosquito-borne viruses spread with changes in rainfall & drought, & can we better predict avian flu? 6. How will boreal forests shift as temperature & precipitation change at high latitudes, & what effects on animal migrations & invasive species will occur? 5. How will coastal & ocean ecosystems respond to changes in physical forcing, particularly those subject to intense human harvesting? 4. How will economic development affect air pollution & transport across oceans & continents, & how are pollutants transformed during transport? 3. How will reduced snowfall affect water storage requirements? 2. Will droughts become more widespread in U.S., Australia, & sub-Saharan Africa, & how will that affect wildfires? 1. Will major ice sheets (including Greenland & West Antarctica) collapse, & if so, how rapidly & what sea-level rise will result? Atmospheric composition is identified with ozone layer and air quality; relevance to climate change, ecosystems not recognized directly

Decadal Survey Process for Mission Selection Panels reviewed >100 candidate missions submitted in response to public Request for Information (RFI) 35 of these missions were recommended to Executive Committee ExCom made final recommendation of 17 missions in three cohorts ( , , ). Presented this ensemble as “minimal yet robust”, warned against cherry-picking. Beyond this strategic plan, Decadal Survey recommended regular schedule of Venture-Class missions with $200M budget cap for grass-roots infusion of new ideas and technology

17 Recommended New Missions: “Minimal Yet Robust” NOAA: Transition 3 LEO “research” to “operational” –Extended Ocean Vector Winds Mission (XOVRM) –GPS radio-occultation (GPSRO) temperature, water vapor, & electron density sounding –Total solar irradiance via Climate Absolute Radiance & Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) & NPOESS NASA: Implement solar spectral portion of CLARREO & 14 other missions, 2 GEO (Geo-CAPE & PATH) & 12 LEO 3D-Winds ACE ASCENDS CLARREO DESDynI GACM Geo-CAPE GPSRO GRACE-II HyspIRIICESat-II PATH & LIST SCLP SMAP SWOT XOVRM

1 st cohort (“ ”) NASA Missions Mission(#) Measurement Types (Panel Themes)OrbitInstrumentsEstimate Climate Absolute Radiance & Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO-NASA portion) (1) Forcing & response of climate (climate)Precessing LEO Absolute, spectrally resolved solar interferometer $200M Soil Moisture Active- Passive (SMAP) (5) Soil moisture & freeze/thaw, Heat Stress & Drought, Algal Blooms & Water-Borne Infectious Disease, Vector-Borne & Zoonotic Disease, Surface Water & Ocean Topography (Health and water) LEO, SSOL-band radar & radiometer $300M Ice, Cloud, & Land Elevation Satellite –II (ICESat-II) (5) Clouds, Aerosols, Ice & Carbon, Ecosystem Structure & Biomass, Sea Ice Thickness, Glacier Surface Elevation, Glacier Velocity (Climate, ecosystem, water) LEO, Non- SSO Laser altimeter$300M Deformation, Ecosystem Structure & Dynamics of Ice (DESDynI) (8) Ice Dynamics, Ecosystem Structure & Biomass, Heat Stress & Drought, Vector-Borne & Zoonotic Disease, Surface Deformation, Sea Ice Thickness, Glacier Surface Elevation, Glacier Velocity (Climate, ecosystem, health, solid earth, water) LEO, SSOL-band (1.2GHz) InSAR Laser altimeter $700M Now in pipeline in the order SMAP, ICESat-II, (DESDynI, CLARREO) First launch (SMAP) unlikely to be before 2014 – at least four years delay relative to Decadal Survey schedule

2 nd cohort NASA Missions Mission(#) Measurement Types (Panel Themes)OrbitInstrumentsEstimate Hyperspectral/IR Imagery (HyspIRI) (4) Land surface composition for agriculture & mineral characterization, vegetation types for ecosystem health (Ecosystem, health, solid earth) LEO, SSO Hyperspectral spectrometer $300M Active Sensing of CO 2 Emissions over Nights, Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS) (2) Day/night, all-latitude, all-season CO 2 column for climate, ozone processes for health (Climate, ecosystem, health) LEO, SSO Multifrequency laser $400M Surface Water/Ocean Topography (SWOT) (4) Ocean Circulation, Heat Storage, & Climate Forcing, Algal Blooms & Water-Borne Infectious Disease, Vector- Borne & Zoonotic Disease, Surface Water & Ocean Topography (Climate, health, water) LEO, SSO Ku-band radar Ku-band altimeter Microwave radiometer $450M Geostationary Coastal & Air Pollution Events (Geo-CAPE) (9) Air Pollution, Acute Toxic Pollution Releases, Algal Blooms & Water-Borne Infectious Disease, Global Ecosystem Dynamics, Heat Stress & Drought, Inland & Coastal Water Quality, Ozone Processes. Aerosol Characterization & Ozone (Ecosystem, health, water, weather) GEOHigh spatial resolution hyperspectral spectrometer Low spatial resolution imaging spectrometer IR correlation radiometer $550M Aerosol/Cloud/Ecosystems (ACE) (10) Aerosol-Cloud, Acute Toxic Pollution Releases, Air Pollution, Algal Blooms & Water-Borne Infectious Disease, Clouds, Aerosols, Ice, & Carbon. Ice Dynamics, Global Ocean Productivity, Ozone Processes, Aerosol Characterization & Ozone (Climate, ecosystem, health, weather) LEO, SSO Backscatter lidar Multiangle polarimeter Doppler radar $800M In definition phase; these missions will likely not be launched before Likely to be revisited in next Decadal Survey

3 rd cohort NASA Missions Mission(#) Measurement Types (Panel Themes)OrbitInstrumentsEstimate Lidar Surface Topography (LIST) (3) Landslide hazards & water runoff, Heat Stress & Drought, Vector-Borne & Zoonotic Disease (Health, solid earth) LEO, SSO Modified Laser altimeter $300M Precision & All-weather Temperature & Humidity (PATH) (5) All-weather temperature & humidity soundings for weather forecasting & SST, Heat Stress & Drought, Algal Blooms & Water-Borne Infectious Disease Vector-Borne & Zoonotic Disease, Cold Seasons (Health, water, weather) GEOMicrowave array spectrometer $450M Gravity Recovery & Climate Experiment-II (GRACE-II) (2) High temporal resolution gravity fields to track large-scale water movement (Climate and water) LEO, SSO Microwave or laser ranging system $450M Snow & Cold Land Processes (SCLP) (1) Snow accumulation for fresh water availability (Water) LEO, SSO Ku & X-band radars K & Ka-band radiometers $500M Global Atmospheric Composition Mission (GACM) (7) Acute Toxic Pollution Releases, Air Pollution Cold Seasons, Global Ecosystem Dynamics, Ozone Processes, Tropospheric Aerosol Characterization & Ozone (Ecosystem, health, water, weather) LEO, SSO UV spectrometer IR spectrometer Microwave limb sounder $600M 3-Dimensional Tropospheric Winds from Space-based Lidar (3D-Winds: Demo) (3) Weather forecasting, pollution & water vapor transport (Health, water, weather) LEO, SSO Doppler lidar$650M Useful to think about them, but will be revisited in next Decadal Survey…

Current NASA ESD budgets do not allow credible implementation of Decadal Survey Fiscal Year FY06 $ Million FY08 Request Prior Commitments Decadal Survey Wedge FY09 Request 12 An Earth Science Initiative is needed… much more than anemic FY09 bump!

Atmospheric composition and the Decadal Survey Atmospheric composition was treated fairly by DS in framework of schedule; but delay means large gap between Aura and the next atm comp mission Current ESD budgets do not allow credible implementation of the DS, even allowing for delays. Implementation of DS would require return of ESD budgets to 2000 levels (+33%). Making this happen will require political intervention GEO-Cape and ACE are budget-busters (>$1B each) – need cost reductions or they will never take off Important to work on mission definition for GEO-Cape, ACE, GACM because they are good ideas and we need to maintain vitality of atm composition research at NASA, but… Don’t view this DS as final word – we need to position ourselves for: –opportunities with Venture-Class missions –collaborations with international space partners (CEOS) –the next Decadal Survey

FUTURE SATELLITE MISSIONS Continuity of UV/Vis (GOME-X series, VIIRS) Nadir+limb, UV-IR-  wave for vertical resolution (GACM) Aerosol  physics and clouds (Glory, ACE) Global CO 2 (OCO, ASCENDS) Geostationary (GEO-CAPE, GEO-SCIA) Room for new ideas! MEO, L1, L2 orbits Lunar platform Microsatellites …

EARTH OBSERVATION FROM THE MOON 6/24/2006 North Pole 12/20/2006 South Pole as enabled by the NASA Lunar Exploration Program (South Pole base in 2020) PROS: continuous full-disk view of the Earth global coverage, high observation density large telescope, antennas, power supplies stability of platform ease of maintenance complicated viewing schedule, radiative transfer dust, moonquakes day/night heating differential CONS: Could be avoided with platform at Earth-Moon L1 point Images from Jay Herman