Global Futures and Strategic Foresight and the IMPACT Model Keith Wiebe International Food Policy Research Institute Workshop on Integrating Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services into Foresight Models Bioversity, Rome 7-8 May 2015

1. Improved modeling tools Complete recoding of IMPACT version 3 Disaggregation geographically and by commodity Improved water & crop models New data management system Modular framework Training

2. Stronger community of practice 13 CGIAR centers now participating in GFSF IFPRI, Bioversity, CIAT, CIMMYT, CIP, ICARDA, ICRAF, ICRISAT, IITA, ILRI, IRRI, IWMI, WorldFish Collaboration with other leading global economic modeling groups through AgMIP

Role of agricultural technologies Africa regional reports Analyses by CGIAR centers CCAFS regional studies AgMIP global economic assessments 3. Improved assessments

4. Informing decision making CGIAR centers CGIAR Research Programs RTB, Dryland Cereals, Grain Legumes; Maize, Wheat, Dryland Systems, Livestock & Fish… National partners MENA, S & SE Asia, Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, Central Asia Regional organizations ASARECA, COMESA, CORAF/WECARD, FANRPAN, FARA, FLAR International organizations and donors OECD, FAO, ADB, IDB, IFAD, WB, BMGF, DFID, USDA

The IMPACT Global Simulation Model International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade Global partial equilibrium model Multimarket model Water models Crop models Livestock model Malnutrition model 6

IMPACT Model – Schematic 7

What is new in IMPACT 3? Geographic and crop disaggregation (2005 base year) 58 agricultural commodities Prices and markets Three markets: farm gate, national, international Tradability: traded and non-traded commodities Land allocation to crops Activity-commodity value chain framework New water models: hydrology, water basin management, water stress on crops Modularity of the IMPACT model “system” 8

9 IMPACT 3 Geography 159 Countries 154 Water Basins 320 Food Production Units

Baseline model drivers and results Core drivers: population, GDP, land Changes in technology Climate change: Suite of Global Circulation Models (GCMs) of climate change Different assumptions about climate drivers: socioeconomic and greenhouse gas pathways 10

Note: Average of 4 GCMs under SSP 2 and RCP 8.5 Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations

2050 Wheat Yields: Climate Change Effects for Top 10 Wheat Producers 12 Source: IMPACT 3 (2014)

Note: Average of 4 GCMs under SSP 2 and RCP 8.5 Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations

Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2014)

Baseline results for SSP1, 2 and 3 Baseline increases in global yields, area, production, consumption, exports, imports and prices of coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar in 2050 (% change relative to 2005 values) Source: Work in progress by IFPRI, PIK, USDA-ERS, LEI-WUR, GTAP/Purdue, FAO, IDS

Climate change impacts in 2050 Climate change impacts on global yields, area, production, consumption, exports, imports and prices of coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar in 2050 (% change relative to 2050 baseline values) Source: Work in progress by IFPRI, PIK, USDA-ERS, LEI-WUR, GTAP/Purdue, FAO, IDS

Climate change impacts and trade Source: Work in progress by IFPRI, PIK, USDA-ERS, LEI-WUR, GTAP/Purdue, FAO, IDS Impacts of climate change and trade policy on yields, area, production, exports and prices of five commodities, (% deviation from baseline values in 2050 without climate change) SSP1, RCP4.5SSP3, RCP8.5

The role of agricultural technologies Baseline to 2050, including climate change Linked crop models and economic models Assessed 11 technologies for maize, rice and wheat Impacts on prices, yields, risk of hunger, resource use, efficiency Source: IFPRI (2014)

Global DSSAT Results Yield Change (%) – Maize, Rice, & Wheat, 2050 vs. Baseline Source: Rosegrant et al

Benefits include reduced N losses, increased N productivity. Efficient use of resources: Change (%) in N Productivity – Maize, Rice, Wheat. Irrigated vs. Rainfed, 2050 vs. Baseline (DSSAT) (Compared to the business-as-usual) 29% less nitrogen losses  28% more N productivity Source: Rosegrant et al

Prominent impacts of Improved Irrigation Technologies  Increased water savings (less water used)  Increased water productivity (more biomass produced per unit water input) Efficient use of resources : Change in Site-specific Water Use – Irrigated Maize, Wheat (Compared to the conventional furrow irrigation) 28% less water applied  22% more water productivity Source: Rosegrant et al

Percent Change in Cultivated Area, Developing Countries & Latin America : 2050 MIROCA1B - Technology vs. Baseline Percent Change in Cultivated Area, Developing Countries & Latin America : 2050 MIROCA1B - Technology vs. Baseline Source: Rosegrant et al

Other environmental impacts Flachsbarth et al. (2015) Water footprints Nitrogen emission rates Changes in carbon stocks Risk of species extinction

Concluding thoughts Foresight modeling is a work in progress Currently working on a number of improvements land use, livestock, fish, nutrition, health, environmental indicators (upstream and downstream) Collaboration is critical To strengthen tools To strengthen ownership and understanding Need to recognize limitations Goal is to inform decisions Results are the beginning of discussion, not the end

Thank you