1. ISI-MIP CGE workshop Potsdam, 19 Sep 2013 Experience from AgMIP and next steps Dr. Hermann Lotze-Campen

2. Hermann Lotze-Campen Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research 19 Sep 2013 2 Climate impacts on maize yields in 2045 (without CO 2 effekc) Müller et al., Ag.Econ. 2013, in press

3. Hermann Lotze-Campen Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research 19 Sep 2013 3 Climate induced changes in agricultural prices by 2045 Von Lampe et al., Ag.Econ. 2013, in press

4. Hermann Lotze-Campen Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research 19 Sep 2013 4 Issues to be clarified (or harmonized?) Baseline/reference, timeline Economic inputs GDP, Population Technology shifters (TFP or factor saving) Elasticities over time Policies (trade, agric., energy, …) Land supply CC-related inputs CC impact translation? Spatial aggregation? Adaptation measures? Outputs GDP or welfare change? Which prices (producers, exports, trade-wheighted, …)? Trade flows Physical units others? General Ambition? Timeline? Protocols, reporting Social costs of carbon? Do/Can the GDP effects matter?

5. Hermann Lotze-Campen Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research 19 Sep 2013 5 Next steps Harmonized CGE comparison? Minimum setting for a multi-sector economic impact comparison? Start: Integrate 2-3 sectors (agriculture, water, (SLR))? No adaptation, present conditions, only initial market adjustment/crop switching? Regional and sectoral aggregation? Pre-select from impact models vs. Sampling from all model outputs? "Average" damage functions vs. Specific function per impact model? ENVISAGE: Second generation of damage functions, based on ISI-MIP data Reconcile with ICIS, GEM-E3? Timeline, next steps: Define regions/sectors; create baseline SSP2 (cf. AgMIP); translate impacts Telecon/Skype: second half of November Resources?