1. Strategic Foresight Analysis in the CRP-GLDC
Core team: Sika G. (IITA), Nedumaran S. (ICRISAT), Aymen Frija (ICARDA), Arega Alene (IITA)
State of Foresight in the CGIAR
University of Aberdeen, 9-10 May 2018

2. Strategic foresight analysis in GLDC
Foresight is under cluster 1.1: Foresight, climate change analysis and priority setting
Priority-setting of GLDC crops and technologies:
Earlier versions of CRP proposal (Phase 2): aim was to estimate potential economic and poverty-reduction impacts of GLDC technologies
Matlon report: 64 recommendations; broaden scope of work on priority-setting
2017 proposal (successful): agroecologies, current value of production, foresight analysis, ex ante evaluation of GLDC technologies (BCR), additional traits, alignment with regional, country, industry and CGIAR priorities
The first point: is about what CRPs/centers doing on foresight?
So I think we should give 2-3 key areas we are working on foresight. At ICRISAT (common across IITA and ICARDA – I guess) we work on the following areas:
Assess regional/country level long term trends for demand, production, yield, prices and trade deficits
Impacts of key drivers (Climate change, income, increase population, etc.,) on change in demand-supply gaps, risk of population under hunger, etc.,
Assessing changing source of demand and identifying opportunities in sector like feed, food (smart food), bioethanol, etc.,
Production/agro-ecological domains and crop-livestock typologies to identify and target technologies for greater impacts

3. Expertise from centers involved in GLDC: ICRISAT, IITA and ICARDA
ICRISAT: expertise in crop & economic modeling; publications on groundnuts, sorghum, millet and chickpea – CC impacts and ex- ante technology evaluation
IITA: expertise in crop & economic modeling; work on closing future demand gap for soybean in SSA
ICARDA: expertise in economic modeling; publications on agricultural water management in drylands

4. Objectives related to strategic foresight analysis: GLDC
What are the desired (by different stakeholders) sustainable development outcomes in the target areas and what are the plausible outcomes under different future scenarios?
Which set of interventions or lines of research and new technologies and management practices would have the greatest impacts on food and nutrition security, poverty reduction and sustainable natural resources management under a changing climate?
In which geographies will the research be most relevant?
Which lines of research would have the greatest benefits for women and the youth?
Drivers
Climate change; weather extremes
Population and income changes: urbanization and changing diets
Role of policies: food availability and natural resource management

5. Methods related to strategic foresight analysis
Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs)
Nutrition (GLDC technologies)
Poverty elasticities
Poverty effects
Women and youth employment
Employment elasticities

6. Key results used by GLDC Management
Region
AEZ
Crop
Technology
BCR
West & cent. Afr.
semi-arid
Sorghum
Early-maturing; tolerance to drought 23
dry sub-humid
Groundnut
Drought tolerance/resistance; early- maturing 16
Eastern Africa 15 28
Southern Africa
Pigeonpea
Resist. to Fusarium wilt and Cercospora leaf spot 8
Groundnuts
Rosette resistance 14
South Asia
Semi-arid
Chickpea
Resist. to Fusarium wilt and root rot 17
Resistant to Fusarium wilt and root rot 12

7. Climate change and yields in 2050
before economic responses (HadGEM2, RCP 8.5, no CO2 fert)
Rainfed sorghum
Rainfed groundnut
Irrigated sorghum
Irrigated groundnut
Source: IFPRI DSSAT simulations

8. Key gaps, operational challenges and opportunities
Not easy to establish relevance of strategic foresight analysis for biophysical scientists (breeders, etc.)
Pests and diseases
Climate variability: weather extremes
Long-term climate change
Operational challenges: linking heterogeneous farms to regional and global trends
CGIAR centers: multi-disciplinary teams with multi-commodities expertise; presence in different regions and agro-ecologies

9. Thank you